Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (B/C/D) (EBF Qual) (GBB)

Lingfield (AW)

15:32

Date 2025-08-12

Distance 5f6y

Class Class 3

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £8,100

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (9)	Lady Lucky Vegas Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	J:Hollie Doyle T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	128	—	8	-	66	-	33d	—	—	-25	11.8	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Shaped with some promise when last of eight in valuable Newmarket maiden on debut
1 (2)	Baileys Ontherocks Brown J:Rossa Ryan T:James Tate	J:Rossa Ryan T:James Tate	128	—	6	-	72	-	12d	—	—	-18	8	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Only sixth of seven when favourite for debut but that run was still quite promising
6 (5)	Perfect Panda Brown J:Kieran Shoemark T:Ed Walker	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Ed Walker	126	—	8	-	66	40	34d	—	—	-10	4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Weakened out of contention from over 1f out when 20-1 for debut at Kempton (6f) in July
8 (6)	Loleeta Black J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	124	—	44	-	68	-	27d	—	—	-8	3.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Launched career with two respectable fourths but probably needs to settle better
9 (3)	Star Marian Chestnut J:Silvestre De Sousa T:David Loughnane	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:David Loughnane	124	—	6535	62	77	26	21d	—	—	-2	7.8	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Placed in Wolverhampton maiden in June but last of five there on nursery debut
4 (1)	Real Romance Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Rod Millman	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Rod Millman	128	h	—	-	48	-	25d	—	—	-5	1.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Dropped out tamely after leading over 6f on debut; drop to 5f looks the right move
5 (7)	Arlo's Girl Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Joseph Parr	J:Darragh Keenan T:Joseph Parr	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
First foal from a 5f AW 2yo winner; stable has very modest 2yo strike-rate
2 (8)	Isthatu Bay J:Georgia Dobie T:J S Moore	J:Georgia Dobie T:J S Moore	128	—	85	-	62	-	8d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Second run was much more encouraging than debut; drops back from 6f today
7 (4)	Rectory Girl Bay J:Charles Bishop T:J S Moore	J:Charles Bishop T:J S Moore	126	—	8	-	33	-	11d	—	—	-1	0.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Always behind when 80-1 for debut at Bath (5.7f) 11 days ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Lady Lucky Vegas	13/8	7/4	13/8	7/4	13/8
Baileys Ontherocks	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4
Perfect Panda	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1
Loleeta	7/1	13/2	7/1	7/1	7/1
Star Marian	9/1	17/2	8/1	8/1	8/1
Real Romance	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	12/1
Arlo's Girl	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Isthatu	66/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1
Rectory Girl	100/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lady Lucky Vegas

11.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 11.8

7/4

2nd

Baileys Ontherocks

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8

11/4

3rd

Star Marian

7.8

OR: 3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Perfect Panda

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4

11/2

Loleeta

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Real Romance

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Arlo's Girl

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Isthatu

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Rectory Girl

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Star Marian	62	77	26
Lady Lucky Vegas	—	66	—
Baileys Ontherocks	—	72	—
Perfect Panda	—	66	40
Loleeta	—	68	—
Real Romance	—	48	—
Arlo's Girl	—	—	—
Isthatu	—	62	—
Rectory Girl	—	33	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Isthatu	8d ago	Quick return
Rectory Girl	11d ago	Quick return
Baileys Ontherocks	12d ago	Quick return
Star Marian	21d ago	Fit
Real Romance	25d ago	Fit
Loleeta	27d ago	Fit
Lady Lucky Vegas	33d ago	Fit
Perfect Panda	34d ago	Fit
Arlo's Girl	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 5f6y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 5 draws with historical results at this course and distance.