Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:15

Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Handicap

Date 2025-09-19

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,245

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (6)	Invitorio Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	131	—	060692	58	72	49	8d	—	—	-7	12.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Met trouble when 2nd over C&D last week; handicapped to win; strong claims down in class
7 (2)	Bazball Bay J:Barry McHugh T:Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith	J:Barry McHugh T:Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith	124	tb	607932	49	70	56	11d	—	—	-4	11.8	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Placed on last two starts, behind Asadjumeirah over C&D latest; needs more to win
1 (4)	Respectful Bay J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	135	—	-50677	60	67	57	16d	—	—	-6	5.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Two 7f wins for Karl Burke as a 2yo; not progressing but lurks on a dangerous mark
5 (1)	Asadjumeirah Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	130	tp	748351	55	71	56	11d	—	—	+5	15.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Three C&D wins this year, the latest 11 days ago; 1lb well in under a penalty; respected
10 (5)	Little Mi Mi Chestnut J:Greg Fairley T:Iain Jardine	J:Greg Fairley T:Iain Jardine	121	—	20-600	46	71	-	125d	—	—	-8	3.1	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Ex-Irish maiden; of interest on her best form though & needs market check on stable debut
9 (3)	She'sashambles Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Phillip Makin	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Phillip Makin	121	p	386304	46	69	71	15d	—	—	-6	4.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Poor strike-rate; creditable fourth on return from a break but this is a stronger race
3 (7)	Golden Duke Chestnut J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	132	p	-25865	57	66	-	10d	—	—	-3	5.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Promising seasonal debut but he hasn't built on it since; losing run set to continue
8 (8)	Captain Pickles Bay J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Stella Barclay	J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Stella Barclay	123	—	455054	50	68	62	33d	—	—	-6	2.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Latest Southwell 4th has been franked since; suspicion an even bigger effort is lurking
2 (9)	South Road Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore	J:Joe Fanning T:Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore	132	—	596156	59	70	-	24d	—	—	+4	8.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Positive impression when winning at Ayr in July; still of interest but needs a fast pace
6 (10)	Pancake Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	127	h	48-039	54	69	41	17d	—	—	-1	1.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Modest form thus far but down in weights and return to 6f looks sure to suit; considered

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Invitorio	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	3/1
Bazball	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	5/1
Respectful	6/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	6/1
Asadjumeirah	15/2	7/1	15/2	7/1	15/2
Little Mi Mi	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	8/1
She'sashambles	8/1	15/2	8/1	8/1	7/1
Golden Duke	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	11/1
Captain Pickles	10/1	11/1	10/1	11/1	12/1
South Road	25/1	22/1	25/1	22/1	22/1
Pancake	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Asadjumeirah

15.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.9

15/2

2nd

Invitorio

12.7

OR: 2 Form: 5 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Bazball

11.8

OR: 0 Form: 7.1 Odds: 4.7

5/1

South Road

8.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 5 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Respectful

5.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Golden Duke

5.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 1 Odds: 2.4

11/1

She'sashambles

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Little Mi Mi

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Captain Pickles

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Pancake

1.9

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Respectful	60	67	57
South Road	59	70	—
Invitorio	58	72	49
Golden Duke	57	66	—
Asadjumeirah	55	71	56
Pancake	54	69	41
Captain Pickles	50	68	62
Bazball	49	70	56
Little Mi Mi	46	71	—
She'sashambles	46	69	71

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Invitorio	8d ago	Quick return
Golden Duke	10d ago	Quick return
Bazball	11d ago	Quick return
Asadjumeirah	11d ago	Quick return
She'sashambles	15d ago	Fit
Respectful	16d ago	Fit
Pancake	17d ago	Fit
South Road	24d ago	Fit
Captain Pickles	33d ago	Fit
Little Mi Mi	125d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.