At The Races App Expert Tips Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:00

At The Races App Expert Tips Handicap

Date 2025-10-09

Distance 5f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,978

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (3)	Dark Kestrel Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	130	t	478749	70	79	67	6d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	-7	10	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Poor strike-rate and usually misses the break; capable but risky
2 (8)	Ziggy's Triton Bay J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	135	p	151325	75	86	82	8d	—	0W/1P 1 run	+2	19.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Weakened on soft ground last week but on the up beforehand; can bounce back quickly
1 (5)	Fierce Bay J:John Fahy T:Paul Midgley	J:John Fahy T:Paul Midgley	135	—	418100	75	86	73	14d	—	—	+2	17.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Two wins this year; not at best in Class 4 on last two starts but this will be easier
3 (4)	Hundred Caps Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	133	b	106421	73	83	63	40d	—	0W/1P 1 run	+10	22.9	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Two Beverley wins this year, the latest six weeks ago; still has time to do better
9 (9)	Rock Of England Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Paul Midgley	J:Jason Hart T:Paul Midgley	125	—	406125	65	84	-	40d	—	—	+4	15.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Four-time turf winner; behind two of these at Beverley on last start; yet to shine on AW
5 (1)	Above Bay J:Ray Dawson T:Robert Cowell	J:Ray Dawson T:Robert Cowell	131	tp	361305	71	89	72	23d	—	—	+1	13.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Conditions to suit and on a dangerous mark; running himself back into form; big chance
8 (2)	Betweenthesticks Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	128	p	812293	68	84	-	15d	—	—	+9	15.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Three turf wins this year and fine with a return to Tapeta; needs to better last two runs
4 (7)	King's Crown Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Michael Dods	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Michael Dods	131	tp	217207	71	85	67	10d	—	—	+5	11.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Four wins this year, including C&D, but not at his best at Southwell on last two starts
6 (6)	Kamekist Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Ivan Furtado	J:Tom Eaves T:Ivan Furtado	130	—	183869	70	80	81	70d	—	—	+4	6.7	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Chance on best form for former trainer; off ten weeks and tries a new trip so not solid

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Dark Kestrel	4/1	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Ziggy's Triton	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Fierce	4/1	9/2	4/1	9/2	4/1
Hundred Caps	11/2	6/1	11/2	11/2	5/1
Rock Of England	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Above	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2	15/2
Betweenthesticks	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	11/1
King's Crown	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Kamekist	40/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Hundred Caps

22.9

OR: 5.8 Form: 13.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

2nd

Ziggy's Triton

19.3

OR: 6.3 Form: 8 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Fierce

17.7

OR: 6.3 Form: 7 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Betweenthesticks

15.4

OR: 4.5 Form: 9 Odds: 1.9

11/1

Rock Of England

15.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Above

13.1

OR: 5.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.3

9/1

King's Crown

11.5

OR: 5.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Dark Kestrel

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

4/1

Kamekist

6.7

OR: 5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ziggy's Triton	75	86	82
Fierce	75	86	73
Hundred Caps	73	83	63
Above	71	89	72
King's Crown	71	85	67
Dark Kestrel	70	79	67
Kamekist	70	80	81
Betweenthesticks	68	84	—
Rock Of England	65	84	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Dark Kestrel	6d ago	Quick return
Ziggy's Triton	8d ago	Quick return
King's Crown	10d ago	Quick return
Fierce	14d ago	Fit
Betweenthesticks	15d ago	Fit
Above	23d ago	Fit
Hundred Caps	40d ago	Fit
Rock Of England	40d ago	Fit
Kamekist	70d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.