Juddmonte/EBF Novice Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Kempton (AW)

17:40

Date 2025-10-15

Distance 7f

Class Class 2

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £15,462

Winning Time 1m 26.28s (slow by 1.68s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Alarming (GB) Rossa Ryan · Ralph Beckett	8/11F	Won
2nd	No Nay Data (IRE) Jason Watson · Tom Clover	18/1	0.1
3rd	Something Coming (GB) Harry Davies · Peter Chapple-Hyam	28/1	3.75
4th	Quilt (IRE) George Downing · Ed Walker	40/1	0.3
5th	Sovereign Bright (GB) Jason Hart · Charlie Johnston	6/1	0.2
6th	Moonlit Surf (GB) Sean Levey · Owen Burrows	3/1	3
7th	Nebbia (GB) Cieren Fallon · Hughie Morrison	17/2	.75
8th	Marie Of Lorraine (GB) Rob Hornby · Clive Cox	66/1	2.25
9th	Atalanta Mist (GB) Darragh Keenan · Marcus Tregoning	33/1	9.5

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (10)	Alarming Chestnut J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	126	—	24	-	90	-	21d	—	—	-24	16.8	0.30/1	6/5 45%
2nd on debut before finishing 4th in Goodwood conditions event 3 weeks ago; leading claims
2 (2)	Moonlit Surf Bay J:Sean Levey T:Owen Burrows	J:Sean Levey T:Owen Burrows	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-22	10	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Half-sister to a 1m2f winner out of a well-related mare; yard 8-37 with 2yos this year
11 (3)	Sovereign Bright Bay J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	122	—	62373	70	88	71	50d	—	—	+5	13.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Not built on her good Doncaster 2nd in three runs since; vulnerable to an improver
3 (8)	Nebbia Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Hughie Morrison	J:Cieren Fallon T:Hughie Morrison	128	—	5	-	74	-	13d	—	—	-6	2.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Close 5th in slowly run 1m event at Chelmsford two weeks ago; open to plenty of progress
9 (4)	Atalanta Mist Chestnut J:Darragh Keenan T:Marcus Tregoning	J:Darragh Keenan T:Marcus Tregoning	122	—	3	-	82	-	13d	—	—	-1	4.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Promising debut at Salisbury two weeks ago (7f, good); open to improvement
7 (7)	No Nay Data Bay J:Jason Watson T:Tom Clover	J:Jason Watson T:Tom Clover	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.2	8.25/1	33/1 3%
40,000gns breeze-up 2yo; has two winning siblings and she needs a market check
4 (5)	Quilt Bay J:George Downing T:Ed Walker	J:George Downing T:Ed Walker	128	h	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
85,000euros breeze-up 2yo; useful pedigree and the betting can guide on debut; wears hood
6 (6)	Marie Of Lorraine Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Clive Cox	J:Rob Hornby T:Clive Cox	126	—	9	-	35	16	27d	—	—	-2	0.6	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Green when well beaten over 6f here four weeks ago; bred to do much better in time
8 (11)	Something Coming Bay J:Harry Davies T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Harry Davies T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	126	—	U	-	-	-	18d	—	—	-2	0.8	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Ducked left and unseated her rider leaving the stalls at Newmarket 18 days ago; risky
NR (1)	Miss Pretty Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	J:NON-RUNNER T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	128	—	17	-	82	-	2d	—	—	—	7	—	—
C&D winner on debut; only midfield here on Monday; risky if turned out quickly
NR (9)	Crimson Sunset Chestnut J:NON-RUNNER T:Marcus Tregoning	J:NON-RUNNER T:Marcus Tregoning	122	—	4	-	-	-	13d	—	—	—	0	—	—
80-1 when a never-dangerous fourth at Salisbury 13 days ago; stable run two here

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Alarming	11/10	11/10	11/10	11/10	6/5
Moonlit Surf	13/8	7/4	7/4	7/4	6/4
Sovereign Bright	10/1	9/1	9/1	8/1	10/1
Nebbia	11/1	10/1	10/1	9/1	17/2
Atalanta Mist	25/1	18/1	20/1	20/1	16/1
No Nay Data	33/1	25/1	25/1	22/1	20/1
Quilt	40/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Marie Of Lorraine	80/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1
Something Coming	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	33/1
Miss Pretty	-	-	-	-	-
Crimson Sunset	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Alarming

16.8

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 13.3

6/5

2nd

Sovereign Bright

13.4

OR: 5 Form: 6 Odds: 2.4

10/1

3rd

Moonlit Surf

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 10

7/4

Miss Pretty

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 0

—

Atalanta Mist

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.6

25/1

Nebbia

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

11/1

No Nay Data

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

33/1

Quilt

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Something Coming

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

50/1

Marie Of Lorraine

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

80/1

Crimson Sunset

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sovereign Bright	70	88	71
Alarming	—	90	—
Moonlit Surf	—	—	—
Nebbia	—	74	—
Atalanta Mist	—	82	—
No Nay Data	—	—	—
Quilt	—	—	—
Marie Of Lorraine	—	35	16
Something Coming	—	—	—
Miss Pretty	—	82	—
Crimson Sunset	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Miss Pretty	2d ago	Quick return
Nebbia	13d ago	Quick return
Atalanta Mist	13d ago	Quick return
Crimson Sunset	13d ago	Quick return
Something Coming	18d ago	Fit
Alarming	21d ago	Fit
Marie Of Lorraine	27d ago	Fit
Sovereign Bright	50d ago	Fresh
Moonlit Surf	—	—
No Nay Data	—	—
Quilt	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 7f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.