Happy Birthday Stuart From Probio-Energy Nursery Handicap

Newcastle (AW)

18:00

Date 2025-10-17

Distance 6f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,234

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (8)	Romeo Montague Bay J:George Wood T:Richard Spencer	J:George Wood T:Richard Spencer	133	—	731	78	81	51	34d	—	—	-1	28	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Clung on by fast-diminishing margin at Lingfield (6f maiden; 11-8) latest; handicap debut.
2 (7)	Sioux Perfect Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	134	b	647214	79	88	-	26d	—	—	+6	21.2	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Sprung surprise in £100,000 Tattersalls Somerville Auction at Newmarket (6f); fair mark.
5 (3)	Dublin Bay Bay J:Sean D Bowen T:Ollie Sangster	J:Sean D Bowen T:Ollie Sangster	129	—	761165	74	83	-	35d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+4	18	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Twice came up short since back-to-back 6f Class 6 wins at Ffos Las & Doncaster; AW debut.
8 (2)	Pull The Rug Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Edward Bethell	J:Oisin Orr T:Edward Bethell	126	—	75431	71	84	49	25d	—	—	+10	20.2	1.88/1	15/2 12%
On an upward trajectory, seemingly relishing the stiff 6f at Leicester (6f); 6lb higher.
4 (5)	Ten Carat Harry Bay J:William Carver T:Jamie Osborne	J:William Carver T:Jamie Osborne	132	—	813	77	83	57	16d	—	—	+10	19.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Wolverhampton novice winner (6f); encountered soft ground over 7f at Catterick next time.
1 (1)	Love Olivia Grey J:David Egan T:Charlie Clover	J:David Egan T:Charlie Clover	136	—	13076	81	83	49	36d	—	—	+4	13.2	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Fair 6th on first go for Charlie Clover in competitive 6.5f Doncaster nursery; 1-1 on AW.
7 (6)	Dandy's Rocket Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	126	—	611482	71	82	62	15d	—	—	+10	17.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Ran solidly behind a well-handicapped rival at Chelmsford (7f; 11-2) latest; 2lb higher.
6 (4)	Alaskan Light Bay J:Jack Nicholls(5) T:K R Burke	J:Jack Nicholls(5) T:K R Burke	126	—	2817	71	84	-	22d	—	—	+10	15.1	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Musselburgh seller winner (5f); failed to shine (bumped start) on Pontefract nursery debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Romeo Montague	9/4	9/4	9/4	5/2	15/8
Sioux Perfect	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	5/1
Dublin Bay	11/2	5/1	5/1	11/2	5/1
Pull The Rug	15/2	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Ten Carat Harry	15/2	15/2	15/2	7/1	15/2
Love Olivia	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Dandy's Rocket	10/1	10/1	9/1	9/1	10/1
Alaskan Light	18/1	18/1	18/1	14/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Romeo Montague

OR: 7 Form: 12.1 Odds: 8.9

5/2

2nd

Sioux Perfect

21.2

OR: 7.3 Form: 9.5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

3rd

Pull The Rug

20.2

OR: 5.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Ten Carat Harry

19.4

OR: 6.8 Form: 10 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Dublin Bay

OR: 6 Form: 8 Odds: 4

11/2

Dandy's Rocket

17.4

OR: 5.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Alaskan Light

15.1

OR: 5.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Love Olivia

13.2

OR: 7.8 Form: 2.9 Odds: 2.5

8/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Love Olivia	81	83	49
Sioux Perfect	79	88	—
Romeo Montague	78	81	51
Ten Carat Harry	77	83	57
Dublin Bay	74	83	—
Pull The Rug	71	84	49
Dandy's Rocket	71	82	62
Alaskan Light	71	84	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Dandy's Rocket	15d ago	Fit
Ten Carat Harry	16d ago	Fit
Alaskan Light	22d ago	Fit
Pull The Rug	25d ago	Fit
Sioux Perfect	26d ago	Fit
Romeo Montague	34d ago	Fit
Dublin Bay	35d ago	Fit
Love Olivia	36d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.