Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap (Div II)

Southwell (AW)

15:55

Date 2025-12-19

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,711

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (5)	Latin Bay J:Paddy Bradley T:James Owen	J:Paddy Bradley T:James Owen	135	—	312223	54	67	55	4d	—	—	-17	28.5	0.25/1	Evens 50%
Reliable handicapper but 0-14 on AW; more minor money perhaps the likeliest scenario
5 (7)	Timely Affair Bay J:Luke Morris T:William Knight	J:Luke Morris T:William Knight	129	—	680	49	60	-	179d	—	0W/1P 1 run	-14	5.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Poor turf form in May/June but bred to do better; likely improver now handicapping
4 (9)	Al Baahy Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Frost	J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Frost	131	—	366574	50	71	58	13d	—	—	-8	3.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Just one win from 41 starts; conditions should be fine but easy enough to look elsewhere
3 (1)	Ring Of Gold Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	133	v	561144	52	63	50	23d	—	—	+1	11.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Two 7f wins at Newcastle in September; form dipped last time but still a key player here
2 (2)	Volendam Bay J:Jack Doughty T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty T:Tony Carroll	134	—	394753	54	71	43	11d	—	0W/1P 1 run	-2	6.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
0-9 but two promising runs for Tony Carroll; capable of winning a similar race
6 (6)	Trusty Scout Chestnut J:Lewis Edmunds T:Derek Shaw	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Derek Shaw	127	—	352399	46	66	59	18d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	0	4.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Infrequent winner; likely he will need the pace to collapse to win over this trip
7 (4)	Hey Crackers Bay J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Suzzanne France	J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Suzzanne France	126	—	009-60	45	57	45	176d	—	—	-3	1.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Low-grade maiden but latest run (June) threatened better; had wind op since; not ruled out
9 (3)	Ciara Storm Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	126	tp	095069	45	63	34	49d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	-2	0.7	16.50/1	66/1 1%
20-race maiden for whom it is difficult to make a compelling case for; new headgear today
8 (8)	Sogannie Bay J:Jonny Peate T:Ruth Carr	J:Jonny Peate T:Ruth Carr	126	—	3000	45	59	24	22d	—	—	0	1.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Low-key handicap debut three weeks ago (7f, Tapeta); no solid form; hard to fancy

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Latin	evn	evn	evn	evn	Evens
Timely Affair	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	4/1
Al Baahy	7/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	7/1
Ring Of Gold	15/2	7/1	7/1	7/1	8/1
Volendam	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Trusty Scout	20/1	20/1	20/1	18/1	18/1
Hey Crackers	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	25/1
Ciara Storm	50/1	50/1	50/1	66/1	50/1
Sogannie	100/1	80/1	80/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Latin

28.5

OR: 1 Form: 12.5 Odds: 15

Evens

2nd

Ring Of Gold

11.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 8 Odds: 2.9

8/1

3rd

Volendam

6.4

OR: 1 Form: 3 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Timely Affair

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

4/1

Trusty Scout

4.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Al Baahy

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Sogannie

1.3

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Hey Crackers

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Ciara Storm

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Latin	54	67	55
Volendam	54	71	43
Ring Of Gold	52	63	50
Al Baahy	50	71	58
Timely Affair	49	60	—
Trusty Scout	46	66	59
Hey Crackers	45	57	45
Ciara Storm	45	63	34
Sogannie	45	59	24

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Latin	4d ago	Quick return
Volendam	11d ago	Quick return
Al Baahy	13d ago	Quick return
Trusty Scout	18d ago	Fit
Sogannie	22d ago	Fit
Ring Of Gold	23d ago	Fit
Ciara Storm	49d ago	Fresh
Hey Crackers	176d ago	Long break
Timely Affair	179d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.