Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Nursery Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

14:15

Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Nursery Handicap

Date 2025-12-19

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,716

Winning Time 1m 43.12s (slow by 5.02s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Florida Suite (IRE) Cieren Fallon · William Haggas	6/1	Won
2nd	Emma's Letter (GB) Hector Crouch · Ed Dunlop	4/1	1.5
3rd	My Shagaf (IRE) Harry Davies · T J Kent	5/1	2
4th	Archangel Josepi (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	100/30F	0.3
5th	Katalyst (GB) Lewis Edmunds · William Muir & Chris Grassick	25/1	.5
6th	India Gold (IRE) Luke Morris · Gay Kelleway	13/2	0.3
7th	Prancy Peer (GB) Kieran Shoemark · Ollie Sangster	16/1	.5
8th	Farabove The Limit (IRE) Andrew Elliott · Phillip Makin	14/1	0.05
9th	Stay Sharp (GB) Pat Cosgrave · James Owen	11/2	4

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (4)	Archangel Josepi Brown J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	128	—	034642	62	73	66	17d	—	0W/1P 1 run	-5	14.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Improved for 1m when second (clear of a subsequent winner) at Newcastle 17 days ago; solid
1 (7)	My Shagaf Bay J:Harry Davies T:T J Kent	J:Harry Davies T:T J Kent	135	—	583	69	69	52	21d	—	—	-5	13	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Third of nine over 7f here last month; steps up in trip for nursery debut; unexposed
3 (1)	Emma's Letter Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Dunlop	J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Dunlop	133	b	02212	67	71	42	11d	—	—	+8	25.3	1.00/1	4/1 20%
1m novice win last month before a close second on recent nursery debut; contender again
7 (9)	Stay Sharp Bay J:Pat Cosgrave T:James Owen	J:Pat Cosgrave T:James Owen	130	p	455313	64	69	61	21d	—	—	+7	18.3	1.75/1	7/1 13%
7f turf win in October; fair third over 7f here three weeks ago; new trip/headgear today
6 (5)	Florida Suite Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	130	b	656	64	67	51	21d	—	—	-4	6.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Modest form claims but a likely improver up in trip for her nursery debut; now blinkered
2 (8)	India Gold Bay J:Luke Morris T:Gay Kelleway	J:Luke Morris T:Gay Kelleway	134	h	54431	68	74	43	44d	—	—	+9	19.5	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Improved for hood/soft ground at Musselburgh last month (7f); up 10lb; may progress again
9 (3)	Farabove The Limit Bay J:Andrew Elliott T:Phillip Makin	J:Andrew Elliott T:Phillip Makin	128	—	06703	62	75	30	32d	—	—	+2	7.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Third of seven on last month's stable debut (1m, AW); may have more to come but needs it
5 (6)	Prancy Peer Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Ollie Sangster	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Ollie Sangster	131	—	708	65	70	37	79d	—	—	0	5.1	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Modest form in 3 qualifying runs but has useful pedigree and 1m can help now handicapping
4 (2)	Katalyst Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	132	p	8556	66	73	48	46d	—	—	+1	5.1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Some promise 2nd/3rd starts but well held latest; tail flasher; up to 1m for h'cap debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Archangel Josepi	7/2	10/3	10/3	3/1	10/3
My Shagaf	9/2	4/1	9/2	9/2	4/1
Emma's Letter	7/2	4/1	7/2	7/2	4/1
Stay Sharp	11/2	13/2	11/2	11/2	7/1
Florida Suite	7/1	7/1	7/1	15/2	6/1
India Gold	8/1	15/2	8/1	8/1	7/1
Farabove The Limit	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Prancy Peer	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	16/1
Katalyst	28/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Emma's Letter

25.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 16 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

India Gold

19.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 12.1 Odds: 2.9

8/1

3rd

Stay Sharp

18.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 11.5 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Archangel Josepi

14.3

OR: 3 Form: 5.6 Odds: 5.7

7/2

My Shagaf

OR: 4.8 Form: 3 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Farabove The Limit

7.6

OR: 3 Form: 3 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Florida Suite

6.6

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Prancy Peer

5.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Katalyst

5.1

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
My Shagaf	69	69	52
India Gold	68	74	43
Emma's Letter	67	71	42
Katalyst	66	73	48
Prancy Peer	65	70	37
Stay Sharp	64	69	61
Florida Suite	64	67	51
Archangel Josepi	62	73	66
Farabove The Limit	62	75	30

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Emma's Letter	11d ago	Quick return
Archangel Josepi	17d ago	Fit
My Shagaf	21d ago	Fit
Stay Sharp	21d ago	Fit
Florida Suite	21d ago	Fit
Farabove The Limit	32d ago	Fit
India Gold	44d ago	Fit
Katalyst	46d ago	Fresh
Prancy Peer	79d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.