Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

1:32

Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap

Date 2026-01-30

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,716

Weather Overcast

Temp 3°C

Wind 13mph E

Rain 0%

Runners (11)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
4 (3)	Tonal b J:Ryan Kavanagh(5) T:Ian Williams	J:Ryan Kavanagh(5) T:Ian Williams	134	p	1121-1	74	88	69	28d	—	—	-7	26.6	13/8 38%
Four wins from last five starts, including C&D; may not have reached his ceiling just yet
6 (9)	Frostmagic b J:Mason Paetel(5) T:Ismail Mohammed	J:Mason Paetel(5) T:Ismail Mohammed	133	—	3239-2	73	86	75	23d	—	—	-1	15.8	5/1 17%
Wins have come at 1m2f/1m4f but in good form over 1m since September; edging up weights
3 (6)	Hale End b J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	134	p	23531-	74	86	77	43d	—	—	+9	24.4	5/1 17%
Good effort to win over C&D six weeks ago; up 3lb but that formline is strong
1 (10)	Qazaq b J:Dylan Hogan T:Iain Jardine	J:Dylan Hogan T:Iain Jardine	135	ht	7708-9	75	82	57	29d	—	—	0	8.6	9/1 10%
Down the field in four runs for new yard but this C&D winner drops in class; check betting
10 (11)	Packetofbiscuits b J:P J McDonald T:John Mackie	J:P J McDonald T:John Mackie	128	b	8074-5	68	86	64	26d	—	—	-1	6.7	11/1 8%
Running okay in defeat and his mark is easing; may need a drop in class though
2 (4)	Selection ch J:Barry McHugh T:Ivan Furtado	J:Barry McHugh T:Ivan Furtado	135	—	01534-	75	86	40	32d	—	—	+8	12.7	16/1 6%
Come up short in three runs since an easy Newcastle win last October; drops in class today
5 (7)	Beauty By My Side b J:Daniel Muscutt T:Joseph Parr	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Joseph Parr	133	p	37106-	73	88	62	31d	—	—	+8	12.7	18/1 5%
Down the field in fillies' handicaps on her last two starts; could prove vulnerable again
7 (1)	Thequietman br J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	132	h	02/3-5	72	82	48	18d	—	—	+5	8.7	22/1 4%
Steps back up in trip for his handicap debut; still has low mileage
11 (5)	King Of York b J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	124	b	12632-	64	87	73	274d	—	—	+11	15.4	18/1 5%
Four 7f wins here and does stay this trip; best watched after nine months off though
9 (2)	Cy Twombly b J:Rowan Scott T:John Mackie	J:Rowan Scott T:John Mackie	132	t	454/6-	72	82	43	33d	—	—	+3	6.3	40/1 2%
May come on for last month's stable/handicap debut after 402 days off but he needs to
8 (8)	Renesmee b J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Keady	J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Keady	132	p	410-66	72	85	75	9d	—	—	+4	6.1	50/1 2%
Struggled since a wide-margin Class 6 win in November (1m2f); others appeal more

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Tonal	11/8	6/4	6/4	6/4	13/8
Frostmagic	9/2	4/1	4/1	4/1	5/1
Hale End	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	4/1
Qazaq	9/1	9/1	9/1	8/1	9/1
Packetofbiscuits	10/1	10/1	10/1	11/1	10/1
Selection	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Beauty By My Side	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Thequietman	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	20/1
King Of York	16/1	18/1	16/1	18/1	16/1
Cy Twombly	33/1	33/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Renesmee	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tonal

26.6

OR: 6 Form: 10 Odds: 10.6

13/8

2nd

Hale End

24.4

OR: 6 Form: 14 Odds: 4.4

5/1

3rd

Frostmagic

15.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 5 Odds: 5

5/1

King Of York

15.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 10.6 Odds: 1.3

18/1

Selection

12.7

OR: 6.3 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Beauty By My Side

12.7

OR: 5.8 Form: 5.6 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Thequietman

8.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Qazaq

8.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Packetofbiscuits

6.7

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Cy Twombly

6.3

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Renesmee

6.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Qazaq Top Rated	75	82	57
Selection	75	86	40
Tonal	74	88	69
Hale End	74	86	77
Frostmagic	73	86	75
Beauty By My Side	73	88	62
Thequietman	72	82	48
Cy Twombly	72	82	43
Renesmee	72	85	75
Packetofbiscuits	68	86	64
King Of York	64	87	73

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Renesmee	9d ago	Quick return
Thequietman	18d ago	Fit
Frostmagic	23d ago	Fit
Packetofbiscuits	26d ago	Fit
Tonal	28d ago	Fit
Qazaq	29d ago	Fit
Beauty By My Side	31d ago	Fit
Selection	32d ago	Fit
Cy Twombly	33d ago	Fit
Hale End	43d ago	Fit
King Of York	274d ago	Long break