SBK Betting Podcast Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:30

SBK Betting Podcast Handicap

Date 2026-03-27

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £18,319

Weather Light Rain

Temp 7.6°C

Wind 9mph S

Rain 92%

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (11)	Station X Grey J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	132	—	7422-2	82	94	64	35d	—	—	-4	20.3	0.69/1	11/4 ▲ 27%
Promising second on 6f AW debut and reappearance five weeks ago; enters calculations
5 (6)	Sports Coach Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	133	—	503-21	83	97	88	13d	—	—	-2	12.3	1.25/1	5/1 ▼ 17%
Solid AW record, finishing second then first over 5f at Southwell this year; big player
8 (9)	Mon Na Slieve Chestnut J:Kevin Stott T:Kevin Ryan	J:Kevin Stott T:Kevin Ryan	130	—	053-69	80	97	75	23d	—	0W/0P 1 run	0	10.6	1.88/1	15/2 ▲ 12%
Good third at Southwell last autumn but below that level in two starts there this year
1 (5)	Havana Blast Grey J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	135	t	63416/	85	95	-	566d	—	—	+10	19.3	2.13/1	17/2 ▲ 11%
Off for 566 days but displayed significant promise on AW as a 2yo; betting informative
7 (8)	Almarada Prince Chestnut J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	131	—	9002-8	81	95	80	15d	—	—	-1	11.1	2.00/1	8/1 ▼ 11%
Likely needed last month's first outing for Paul Midgley and should last longer this time
10 (2)	Reigning Profit Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	128	v	5878-5	78	95	60	13d	—	—	+1	9.2	2.75/1	11/1 ▼ 8%
Hampered and better than result behind Sports Coach on return; 3lb below last win mark
12 (12)	Pixie Diva Bay J:P J McDonald T:George Scott	J:P J McDonald T:George Scott	126	—	3227-6	76	95	70	14d	—	—	0	9	3.00/1	12/1 ▼ 8%
Lightly raced; good second over C&D last year; too keen on 6f return; retains potential
3 (4)	Master Of My Fate Bay J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	134	—	-42614	84	96	90	13d	—	—	+12	18.9	3.50/1	14/1 ▼ 7%
Beat Sports Coach to win at Southwell last month but only fourth to same rival there since
9 (1)	Tiriac Bay J:Barry McHugh T:Paul Midgley	J:Barry McHugh T:Paul Midgley	128	p	04131-	78	94	84	104d	—	—	+20	25.7	4.50/1	18/1 ▼ 5%
Two C&D wins belatedly switched to AW at the end of 2025; could still be feasibly treated
11 (7)	Kinetic Force Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	127	—	27898-	77	93	83	178d	—	—	+4	9.4	5.00/1	20/1 ▲ 5%
The sort Ruth Carr will do well with but whether it's first time up remains to be seen
4 (3)	Blinky Chestnut J:Alex Jary(3) T:Antony Brittain	J:Alex Jary(3) T:Antony Brittain	133	p	0252-8	83	94	80	82d	—	—	+5	9.5	6.25/1	25/1 ▼ 4%
Good second at Wolverhampton in December but below par at Southwell since; off 82 days
2 (10)	Vingegaard Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	134	—	045/09	84	93	71	20d	—	—	+7	9.2	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Useful as 2yo but hasn't shown he retains that ability in two comeback runs for new yard

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Station X	5/2	9/4	5/2	11/4	11/4
Sports Coach	9/2	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Mon Na Slieve	7/1	15/2	7/1	15/2	7/1
Havana Blast	8/1	17/2	8/1	8/1	15/2
Almarada Prince	15/2	15/2	15/2	8/1	15/2
Reigning Profit	11/1	10/1	11/1	17/2	11/1
Pixie Diva	11/1	11/1	11/1	12/1	11/1
Master Of My Fate	12/1	12/1	12/1	14/1	12/1
Tiriac	16/1	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Kinetic Force	20/1	20/1	18/1	18/1	12/1
Blinky	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1	25/1
Vingegaard	50/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tiriac

25.7

OR: 7 Form: 17.1 Odds: 1.6

18/1

2nd

Station X

20.3

OR: 8 Form: 5 Odds: 7.3

11/4

3rd

Havana Blast

19.3

OR: 8.8 Form: 7.9 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Master Of My Fate

18.9

OR: 8.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Sports Coach

12.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4

5/1

Almarada Prince

11.1

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

8/1

Mon Na Slieve

10.6

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Blinky

9.5

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Kinetic Force

9.4

OR: 6.8 Form: 1 Odds: 1.6

20/1

Reigning Profit

9.2

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Vingegaard

9.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Pixie Diva

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

12/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Havana Blast	85	95	—
Master Of My Fate	84	96	90
Vingegaard	84	93	71
Sports Coach	83	97	88
Blinky	83	94	80
Station X	82	94	64
Almarada Prince	81	95	80
Mon Na Slieve	80	97	75
Reigning Profit	78	95	60
Tiriac	78	94	84
Kinetic Force	77	93	83
Pixie Diva	76	95	70

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Sports Coach	13d ago	Quick return
Reigning Profit	13d ago	Quick return
Master Of My Fate	13d ago	Quick return
Pixie Diva	14d ago	Fit
Almarada Prince	15d ago	Fit
Vingegaard	20d ago	Fit
Mon Na Slieve	23d ago	Fit
Station X	35d ago	Fit
Blinky	82d ago	Fresh
Tiriac	104d ago	Long break
Kinetic Force	178d ago	Long break
Havana Blast	566d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.