Quaff Box Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:45

Quaff Box Handicap

Date 2026-05-01

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,245

Weather Clear

Temp 8.8°C

Wind 9mph E

Rain 0%

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (6)	Fallacious Promise Bay J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	120	—	905-92	50	70	46	79d	—	—	-24	11.4	0.34/1	11/8 42%
First signs of life when coming home strongly, upped to 1m, last time; leading claims
2 (2)	Central Command Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Simon & Ed Crisford	134	v	755-	64	74	41	135d	—	—	-22	15.3	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Gelded since well held in three 7f runs at Kempton last year; goes in first-time headgear
6 (8)	Regal Knight Bay J:Barry McHugh T:Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood	J:Barry McHugh T:Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood	122	—	078-	52	63	25	202d	—	—	-7	3.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
This more realistic but would want to see some support before considering him
1 (7)	Skirt Around Grey J:Cam Hardie T:Philip Kirby	J:Cam Hardie T:Philip Kirby	135	—	643-	65	70	61	215d	—	—	0	9.3	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Starts handicap life at a sensible level; market useful (yard also run Project Kinsman)
8 (1)	Project Kinsman Bay J:Aiden Brookes T:Philip Kirby	J:Aiden Brookes T:Philip Kirby	119	—	98-82	49	69	47	18d	—	—	-5	1.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Better on her C&D handicap debut here 18 days ago; that gave something to build on
5 (5)	Steel Fixer Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	125	—	096-74	55	69	30	10d	—	—	-2	2.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Overraced and hit traffic latest but that was at least a step up on his turf efforts
4 (3)	Sweet Love Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Charlie Johnston	J:Andrew Mullen T:Charlie Johnston	126	—	557-65	56	70	59	53d	—	—	-2	2.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Exposed, regressive maiden; handicapper giving her every chance but she's vulnerable again
3 (4)	Ballon Rouge Bay J:P J McDonald T:Ed Dunlop	J:P J McDonald T:Ed Dunlop	127	—	486-6	57	72	44	25d	—	—	-1	2.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Didn't look to see out 1m4f having gone to the front latest; 4lb lower; one to consider

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Fallacious Promise	11/8	11/8	11/8
Central Command	2/1	2/1	2/1
Regal Knight	9/1	11/1	9/1
Skirt Around	17/2	15/2	17/2
Project Kinsman	14/1	11/1	12/1
Steel Fixer	20/1	16/1	16/1
Sweet Love	20/1	14/1	18/1
Ballon Rouge	33/1	28/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Central Command

15.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 11.8

2/1

2nd

Fallacious Promise

11.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 11.4

11/8

3rd

Skirt Around

9.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 3 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Regal Knight

3.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

11/1

Sweet Love

2.9

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Steel Fixer

2.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Ballon Rouge

2.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Project Kinsman

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Skirt Around	65	70	61
Central Command	64	74	41
Ballon Rouge	57	72	44
Sweet Love	56	70	59
Steel Fixer	55	69	30
Regal Knight	52	63	25
Fallacious Promise	50	70	46
Project Kinsman	49	69	47

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Steel Fixer	10d ago	Quick return
Project Kinsman	18d ago	Fit
Ballon Rouge	25d ago	Fit
Sweet Love	53d ago	Fresh
Fallacious Promise	79d ago	Fresh
Central Command	135d ago	Long break
Regal Knight	202d ago	Long break
Skirt Around	215d ago	Long break