Follow @attheraces On Twitter Nursery Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

5:30

Follow @attheraces On Twitter Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-09-28

Distance 4f214y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,245

Runners (13)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
3 (1)	Zola Power ch J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	135	—	906822	65	73	57	15d	—	—	-10	22.3	7/4 36%
Second on Polytrack (5f, 6f) the past twice, committing early latest; live contender
4 (4)	Raft Up b J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Harry Eustace	J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Harry Eustace	134	—	970082	64	72	41	38d	—	—	-4	13.7	7/2 22%
Almost defied refusal to settle at Brighton latest; wide trip on Tapeta the time before
6 (6)	Zaphea ch J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	126	—	237812	56	73	-	5d	—	—	+3	18.5	9/2 18%
In form this month granted a sharp turf 5f and cut; 4lb well in and down slightly in grade
2 (3)	Reflexion Faite b J:David Allan T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:David Allan T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	137	—	89235	67	70	-	30d	—	—	+2	11.4	9 11%
Down 2lb today but the race got away from her at a vital stage on last two starts
8 (2)	Amroon ch J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	121	t	490	51	61	34	24d	—	—	-6	2.6	17/2 11%
Big uplift needed but best run was on Tapeta and the drop to 5f looks a possible plus
5 (13)	Elliott b J:Paul Mulrennan T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Rebecca Menzies	128	—	656	58	66	-	21d	—	—	-3	3.9	14 7%
Needs to leave maiden/novice form behind but these are easier waters and he drops in trip.
12 (10)	Lottings Lass b J:Josephine Gordon T:John Quinn	J:Josephine Gordon T:John Quinn	116	—	86665	46	71	-	12d	—	—	-4	1.4	22 5%
Over 5l behind Zaphea on turf last time, albeit with excuses; switches surface now
13 (12)	Bella Camina b J:Jimmy Quinn T:Kevin Ryan	J:Jimmy Quinn T:Kevin Ryan	115	b	09993	45	68	26	21d	—	—	0	4.2	22 5%
Career-best form when third at Carlisle (5f, good to firm) but comes with risks attached
1 (8)	Quiet Affair ch J:David Probert T:Amy Murphy	J:David Probert T:Amy Murphy	137	tp	306	67	68	40	78d	—	—	+3	6.7	25 4%
Nice debut in May on Polytrack (6f) but hasn't got the basics as right again since
9 (9)	Glamorous Joy b J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Christopher Mason	J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Christopher Mason	120	h	000	50	64	-	27d	—	—	-2	0.8	40 3%
Green in defeat latest (6f); hood and drop in trip possible positives, her mark less so.
11 (7)	Belvoir Kitten b J:Cam Hardie T:David C Griffiths	J:Cam Hardie T:David C Griffiths	118	—	07068	48	65	47	26d	—	—	-1	0.5	50 2%
Didn't raise game for Ed Dunlop in nurseries; new yard generally scores with older horses
7 (5)	Regal Solitaire b J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	121	—	U8670	51	68	28	42d	—	—	-1	0.6	66 2%
Yet to see out her races that well, including returned to 5f on nursery debut last time.
10 (11)	Harswell Star b J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	119	—	059956	49	72	-	8d	—	—	-1	0.4	80 1%
Anonymous effort at Beverley last week (5f, heavy); looks stable second string to Zaphea.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Zola Power	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4
Raft Up	4	7/2	7/2	7/2	4
Zaphea	5	9/2	4	9/2	9/2
Reflexion Faite	9	8	8	8	8
Amroon	8	9	17/2	17/2	9
Elliott	12	14	12	14	12
Lottings Lass	22	20	16	20	20
Bella Camina	16	20	20	20	22
Quiet Affair	20	25	22	25	22
Glamorous Joy	33	40	33	33	40
Belvoir Kitten	50	50	50	50	50
Regal Solitaire	66	66	66	66	66
Harswell Star	80	80	66	80	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Zola Power

22.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 10

7/4

2nd

Zaphea

18.5

OR: 1.5 Form: 12.6 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Raft Up

13.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 5 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Reflexion Faite

11.4

OR: 4.3 Form: 4.6 Odds: 2.5

Quiet Affair

6.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1

Bella Camina

4.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

Elliott

3.9

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Amroon

2.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Lottings Lass

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Glamorous Joy

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Regal Solitaire

0.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Belvoir Kitten

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Harswell Star

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Reflexion Faite Top Rated	67	70	—
Quiet Affair	67	68	40
Zola Power	65	73	57
Raft Up	64	72	41
Elliott	58	66	—
Zaphea	56	73	—
Amroon	51	61	34
Regal Solitaire	51	68	28
Glamorous Joy	50	64	—
Harswell Star	49	72	—
Belvoir Kitten	48	65	47
Lottings Lass	46	71	—
Bella Camina	45	68	26

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Zaphea	5d ago	Quick return
Harswell Star	8d ago	Quick return
Lottings Lass	12d ago	Quick return
Zola Power	15d ago	Fit
Elliott	21d ago	Fit
Bella Camina	21d ago	Fit
Amroon	24d ago	Fit
Belvoir Kitten	26d ago	Fit
Glamorous Joy	27d ago	Fit
Reflexion Faite	30d ago	Fit
Raft Up	38d ago	Fit
Regal Solitaire	42d ago	Fit
Quiet Affair	78d ago	Fresh