Renegade Brewery Fillies' Handicap – Newbury

Newbury

5:11

Renegade Brewery Fillies' Handicap

Date 2024-10-25

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 4

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £7,328

Runners 11

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
1 (4)	Wintercrack b Shane Kelly · Pam Sly	Shane Kelly · Pam Sly	138	—	-12001	83	96	63	16d	—	—	+8	27.5	7/2 22%
Made all at Nottingham this month, taking form figures in heavy-ground handicaps to 121
7 (11)	Lady La Fay b Sam James · K R Burke	Sam James · K R Burke	135	—	34241	84	90	74	27d	—	—	+10	26.3	9/2 18%
Registered an 8l success in Ripon novice event last month and may show further progress
8 (2)	Big Bear Hug b Jason Watson · Adam West	Jason Watson · Adam West	131	p	613528	76	91	75	20d	—	—	+3	16.9	7/1 13%
Has never defied a mark this high but is proven in the mud
5 (6)	Elladonna b Ross Coakley · James Fanshawe	Ross Coakley · James Fanshawe	136	h	-55116	81	93	80	50d	—	—	+12	22.8	15/2 12%
Beaten favourite last time; interesting with hood reapplied, being 2-2 in this headgear
4 (3)	Ciara Pearl b Saffie Osborne · Daniel & Claire Kubler	Saffie Osborne · Daniel & Claire Kubler	136	—	012236	81	92	83	34d	—	—	+9	18.4	9/1 10%
Record is 5-14; perhaps feeling the effects of a busy spell last time; may rebound
6 (5)	Expert Witness b David Probert · Sir Mark Todd	David Probert · Sir Mark Todd	136	t	121683	81	91	83	22d	—	—	+9	17.1	10/1 9%
Record of 2221213 in 1m2f handicaps this term, clear third on heavy going last time
2 (9)	Power Of Destiny b Richard Kingscote · Sir Michael Stoute	Richard Kingscote · Sir Michael Stoute	138	—	31220	87	92	83	63d	—	—	+13	21.2	11/1 8%
Something seemed amiss last time; steadily progressive otherwise; not written off
3 (10)	Shemozzle gr Hector Crouch · Ralph Beckett	Hector Crouch · Ralph Beckett	137	—	326198	86	90	67	34d	—	—	+10	16.9	12/1 8%
Has one stand-out performance since handicapping; fairly useful but isn't solid
11 (7)	Dramatic Effect ch Charles Bishop · Eve Johnson Houghton	Charles Bishop · Eve Johnson Houghton	127	—	-41563	76	90	67	34d	—	—	+8	14.1	18/1 5%
Ran well over 1m here last month (wore hood); new trip presents a question mark
10 (8)	Hello Miss Lady ch Rhys Clutterbuck · Dylan Cunha	Rhys Clutterbuck · Dylan Cunha	127	—	8-721	76	86	44	44d	—	—	+2	8.1	22/1 4%
Successful in weak AW event last month; this is harder but she's still unexposed
9 (1)	Saisissante b Millie Wonnacott(5) · Noel Williams	Millie Wonnacott(5) · Noel Williams	130	tb	12115-	75	88	-	—	—	—	—	21.8	—
Hurdles winner for current yard; absent since last December; market helpful

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Wintercrack	10/3	10/3	10/3	3/1	7/2
Lady La Fay	SP	9/2	4/1	4/1	4/1
Big Bear Hug	11/2	11/2	11/2	13/2	7/1
Elladonna	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	7/1
Ciara Pearl	SP	9/1	9/1	15/2	17/2
Expert Witness	9/1	9/1	9/1	8/1	10/1
Power Of Destiny	10/1	10/1	11/1	11/1	8/1
Shemozzle	SP	12/1	12/1	11/1	12/1
Dramatic Effect	SP	16/1	16/1	18/1	14/1
Hello Miss Lady	22/1	20/1	22/1	20/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Wintercrack

27.5

OR: 8.3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Lady La Fay

26.3

OR: 8.5 Form: 13.1 Odds: 4.7

9/2

3rd

Elladonna

22.8

OR: 7.8 Form: 12 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Saisissante

21.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 15.5 Odds: 0

—

Power Of Destiny

21.2

OR: 9.3 Form: 9.6 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Ciara Pearl

18.4

OR: 7.8 Form: 8.1 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Expert Witness

17.1

OR: 7.8 Form: 7 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Big Bear Hug

16.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 6.4 Odds: 4

7/1

Shemozzle

16.9

OR: 9 Form: 6 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Dramatic Effect

14.1

OR: 6.5 Form: 6 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Hello Miss Lady

8.1

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

22/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Power Of Destiny Top Rated	87	92	83
Shemozzle	86	90	67
Lady La Fay	84	90	74
Wintercrack	83	96	63
Elladonna	81	93	80
Ciara Pearl	81	92	83
Expert Witness	81	91	83
Big Bear Hug	76	91	75
Dramatic Effect	76	90	67
Hello Miss Lady	76	86	44
Saisissante	75	88	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Wintercrack	16d ago	Fit
Lady La Fay	27d ago	Fit
Big Bear Hug	20d ago	Fit
Elladonna	50d ago	Fresh
Ciara Pearl	34d ago	Fit
Expert Witness	22d ago	Fit
Power Of Destiny	63d ago	Fresh
Shemozzle	34d ago	Fit
Dramatic Effect	34d ago	Fit
Hello Miss Lady	44d ago	Fit
Saisissante	—	—

Going: Heavy

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