Tipperary Handicap Hurdle – Clonmel

Clonmel

3:40

Tipperary Handicap Hurdle

Date 2025-01-15

Distance 2m3f219y

Class

Going Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €5,900

Runners 12

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
12	Johnny Cakes ch Tiernan Power Roche(7) · P J Rothwell	Tiernan Power Roche(7) · P J Rothwell	147	p	P7-440	79	99	49	43d	—	—	-10	14.7	7/2 22%
Couldn't quicken here latest but 8lb lower here and can't be discounted for in-form stable
4	Coffeys Forge b Danny Gilligan · Gordon Elliott	Danny Gilligan · Gordon Elliott	158	—	607990	90	100	88	57d	—	—	-3	15.2	9/2 18%
Tailed off at Limerick; first run for Gordon Elliott so improvement could be on the way
3	Doyen For A Drink b Aidan Kelly(5) · Gerard O'Leary	Aidan Kelly(5) · Gerard O'Leary	163	—	8-415F	95	106	86	19d	—	—	0	15.7	11/2 15%
Was in front and travelling well when falling two out over 2m4f at Limerick when last seen
1	Elusive Guy b Peter Smithers(7) · Jarlath P Fahey	Peter Smithers(7) · Jarlath P Fahey	168	—	0/80-6	100	102	83	17d	—	—	+3	16.5	13/2 13%
Not a bad effort when sixth of 18 at Limerick at Christmas; possibilities from 2lb lower
7	Bossofthebus b John Shinnick(5) · Terence O'Brien	John Shinnick(5) · Terence O'Brien	156	—	0900-7	88	97	65	82d	—	—	+2	12.6	8/1 11%
Well-backed fav' on debut for this yard at Sligo but never got involved; still early days
5	Misty Milan b Liam McKenna(5) · Declan Queally	Liam McKenna(5) · Declan Queally	158	—	90070-	90	83	66	267d	—	—	+2	13.3	11/1 8%
Maiden in 5 starts who failed to raise her profile on handicap debut at Tipperary in April
8	Castlehill Boy b Sean Flanagan · Brendan Maurice Walsh	Sean Flanagan · Brendan Maurice Walsh	156	t	597-76	88	94	20	43d	—	—	+3	11.9	11/1 8%
Closely matched with some of these rivals on C&D 6th last month but 10yo is still a maiden
11	Ardfert Mary b Sean O'Keeffe · John Patrick Ryan	Sean O'Keeffe · John Patrick Ryan	149	—	P60255	81	99	71	14d	—	—	+6	12	18/1 5%
Low-grade maiden hurdler; Danny Mullins has jumped ship; can run well without threatening
2	Mount Shenshan b Danny Mullins · Thomas Mullins	Danny Mullins · Thomas Mullins	167	h	3-7664	99	99	83	142d	—	—	+11	15.7	18/1 5%
Fair opening mark and Danny Mullins has deserted Ardfert Mary to ride her; good chance
10	Rorkes Drift b Sean Cleary-Farrell(7) · Gerard Kelleher	Sean Cleary-Farrell(7) · Gerard Kelleher	156	—	50079	88	90	58	43d	—	—	+8	10.2	50/1 2%
Well beaten in 5 maiden hurdles, including when fifth and beaten 67l behind Salvator Mundi
6	Not So Simple gr J J Slevin · Norman Lee	J J Slevin · Norman Lee	158	b	192P/8	90	100	-	19d	—	—	+8	10.6	100/1 1%
Has won 3 handicap hurdles but was never sighted on return from an 835-day absence latest
NR	Donegal Danny b Cian Quirke(5) · Michael J McDonagh	Cian Quirke(5) · Michael J McDonagh	156	t	003467	88	100	77	18d	—	—	—	10.4	—
Drop back to 2m4f will help from a career-low mark; handles soft and has a squeak

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Johnny Cakes	9/4	11/4	5/2	7/2	9/4
Coffeys Forge	4/1	9/2	4/1	10/3	9/2
Doyen For A Drink	11/2	5/1	5/1	11/2	5/1
Elusive Guy	13/2	6/1	6/1	13/2	11/2
Bossofthebus	15/2	8/1	15/2	8/1	13/2
Misty Milan	10/1	17/2	10/1	11/2	11/1
Castlehill Boy	10/1	11/1	11/1	8/1	11/1
Ardfert Mary	18/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Mount Shenshan	16/1	18/1	16/1	14/1	16/1
Rorkes Drift	50/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	40/1
Not So Simple	100/1	100/1	100/1	33/1	66/1
Donegal Danny	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Elusive Guy

16.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4

13/2

2nd

Doyen For A Drink

15.7

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

3rd

Mount Shenshan

15.7

OR: 12.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Coffeys Forge

15.2

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Johnny Cakes

14.7

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.4

7/2

Misty Milan

13.3

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

11/1

Bossofthebus

12.6

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Ardfert Mary

OR: 7.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.7

18/1

Castlehill Boy

11.9

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Not So Simple

10.6

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

100/1

Donegal Danny

10.4

OR: 9.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0

—

Rorkes Drift

10.2

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Elusive Guy Top Rated	100	102	83
Mount Shenshan	99	99	83
Doyen For A Drink	95	106	86
Coffeys Forge	90	100	88
Misty Milan	90	83	66
Not So Simple	90	100	—
Bossofthebus	88	97	65
Castlehill Boy	88	94	20
Rorkes Drift	88	90	58
Donegal Danny	88	100	77
Ardfert Mary	81	99	71
Johnny Cakes	79	99	49

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Johnny Cakes	43d ago	Fit
Coffeys Forge	57d ago	Fresh
Doyen For A Drink	19d ago	Fit
Elusive Guy	17d ago	Fit
Bossofthebus	82d ago	Fresh
Misty Milan	267d ago	Long break
Castlehill Boy	43d ago	Fit
Ardfert Mary	14d ago	Fit
Mount Shenshan	142d ago	Long break
Rorkes Drift	43d ago	Fit
Not So Simple	19d ago	Fit
Donegal Danny	18d ago	Fit

Going: Soft

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