Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:00

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2023-04-14

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,402

Winning Time 1m 39.94s (slow by 1.74s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Spirit Of Bowland (GB) Callum Rodriguez · Stella Barclay	5/1	Won
2nd	Hostelry (GB) Joanna Mason · Ruth Carr	10/1	1
3rd	Non Mollare (IRE) Jason Hart · Daragh Bourke	11/2	0.05
4th	How Bizarre (GB) Daniel Tudhope · Liam Bailey	5/1	0.3
5th	Egoiste (USA) Hector Crouch · David Menuisier	12/1	0.3
6th	Ebury (GB) Phil Dennis · Scott Dixon	9/2F	2.5
7th	Cheese The One (GB) Faye McManoman · Stella Barclay	33/1	.75
8th	Bold And Loyal (GB) Marco Ghiani · Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	7/1	.5
9th	Millicent (GB) Alec Voikhansky · Kevin Frost	40/1	1.25
10th	Fast Danseuse (IRE) George Rooke · Richard Hughes	12/1	0.3
11th	Lucky Lucky Lucky (IRE) Sophie Clements · Nigel Tinkler	22/1	0.2
12th	Catch My Breath (GB) Ben Curtis · John Ryan	14/1	2.25
13th	Salve Japan (GB) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	66/1	0.3

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (12)	Non Mollare Bay J:Jason Hart T:Daragh Bourke	J:Jason Hart T:Daragh Bourke	133	—	295619	53	66	58	7d	—	—	-3	12.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Two AW wins for new yard this year; too keen on slow ground last week; better than that
3 (1)	Ebury Chestnut J:Phil Dennis T:Scott Dixon	J:Phil Dennis T:Scott Dixon	134	—	026246	54	69	49	7d	—	—	-7	8.9	1.00/1	5 20%
On losing run but conditions to suit and better than result last week; easy lead unlikely
6 (4)	How Bizarre Chestnut J:Daniel Tudhope T:Liam Bailey	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Liam Bailey	129	—	530423	49	67	58	10d	—	—	-2	10.7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Front-runner; near miss over C&D last month; solid effort ten days ago; others appeal more
8 (14)	Spirit Of Bowland Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Stella Barclay	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Stella Barclay	128	—	840-41	48	70	55	14d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 2 runs	-8	3.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Strong finish to win over 7f at Newcastle latest; 2lb rise fair enough; widest stall
12 (7)	Bold And Loyal Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Marco Ghiani T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	126	tp	6-6028	46	69	61	38d	—	—	-8	3.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Exposed maiden but a repeat of his penultimate second would give him claims
2 (6)	Hostelry Chestnut J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	135	—	24077-	55	68	11	182d	—	—	-3	4.4	2.25/1	10 10%
Can go well fresh and returns with her yard in good form; 2lb lower than for her win
11 (8)	Fast Danseuse Bay J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	127	—	47364-	47	64	56	119d	—	—	-3	3.2	2.75/1	12 8%
0-12 but has shown promise; return to 1m can help; not discounted
7 (9)	Catch My Breath Grey J:Ben Curtis T:John Ryan	J:Ben Curtis T:John Ryan	128	p	308628	48	65	52	18d	—	—	-2	5.4	2.75/1	12 8%
7-time winner but not the easiest to predict; chance if reproducing penultimate C&D run
1 (2)	Egoiste Bay J:Hector Crouch T:David Menuisier	J:Hector Crouch T:David Menuisier	135	h	0978-	55	62	-	281d	—	—	-3	3	3.25/1	14 7%
Poor form last season but now hooded and he's had a wind op during his absence
5 (13)	Lucky Lucky Lucky Bay J:Sophie Clements(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Sophie Clements(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	129	—	451656	49	67	46	14d	—	—	-1	4.4	4.75/1	20 5%
7f classified winner in February; less good since and still to prove himself over 1m
NR (5)	Faithless Insomnia Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Phil Mcentee	J:Cieren Fallon T:Phil Mcentee	126	tv	7-2079	46	64	42	34d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Well beaten in three runs following his improved second at Lingfield in January; new visor
10 (11)	Cheese The One Grey J:Faye McManoman T:Stella Barclay	J:Faye McManoman T:Stella Barclay	128	p	4-0565	48	67	53	17d	—	—	-4	1.6	6.75/1	28 4%
Two 6f wins for former yard; stays 7f but still to convince over 1m
9 (10)	Millicent Bay J:Alec Voikhansky(7) T:Kevin Frost	J:Alec Voikhansky(7) T:Kevin Frost	128	—	80175-	48	64	-	232d	—	—	+3	5.6	9.75/1	40 3%
1m winner at Salisbury last summer; not seen since a heavy defeat in August; Tapeta debut
13 (3)	Salve Japan Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	126	—	990-08	46	66	50	41d	—	—	-1	0.5	12.25/1	50 2%
Well beaten in handicaps for Hugo Palmer and this yard; plenty to prove

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Non Mollare	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Ebury	5	5	4	5	5
How Bizarre	11/2	5	11/2	11/2	5
Spirit Of Bowland	6	6	6	6	11/2
Bold And Loyal	6	6	11/2	6	13/2
Hostelry	10	10	10	10	10
Fast Danseuse	12	12	12	12	11
Catch My Breath	12	12	11	11	12
Egoiste	11	14	12	12	12
Lucky Lucky Lucky	20	18	16	18	18
Faithless Insomnia	33	33	33	33	33
Cheese The One	28	28	28	28	28
Millicent	40	40	40	40	40
Salve Japan	50	40	40	40	40

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Non Mollare

12.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 7 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

How Bizarre

10.7

OR: 0 Form: 7.1 Odds: 3.6

11/2

3rd

Ebury

8.9

OR: 1 Form: 3.5 Odds: 4.4

Millicent

5.6

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 0.6

Catch My Breath

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.9

Hostelry

4.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 1 Odds: 2.1

Lucky Lucky Lucky

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

Spirit Of Bowland

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Bold And Loyal

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Fast Danseuse

3.2

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.7

Egoiste

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Cheese The One

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Faithless Insomnia

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Salve Japan

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Hostelry	55	68	11
Egoiste	55	62	—
Ebury	54	69	49
Non Mollare	53	66	58
How Bizarre	49	67	58
Lucky Lucky Lucky	49	67	46
Spirit Of Bowland	48	70	55
Catch My Breath	48	65	52
Cheese The One	48	67	53
Millicent	48	64	—
Fast Danseuse	47	64	56
Bold And Loyal	46	69	61
Faithless Insomnia	46	64	42
Salve Japan	46	66	50

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Non Mollare	7d ago	Quick return
Ebury	7d ago	Quick return
How Bizarre	10d ago	Quick return
Spirit Of Bowland	14d ago	Fit
Lucky Lucky Lucky	14d ago	Fit
Cheese The One	17d ago	Fit
Catch My Breath	18d ago	Fit
Faithless Insomnia	34d ago	Fit
Bold And Loyal	38d ago	Fit
Salve Japan	41d ago	Fit
Fast Danseuse	119d ago	Long break
Hostelry	182d ago	Long break
Millicent	232d ago	Long break
Egoiste	281d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
How Bizarre	Front Runner
Spirit Of Bowland	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 14 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.