Dubai Duty Free Handicap – Newbury

Newbury

14:05

Dubai Duty Free Handicap

Date 2023-04-21

Distance 6f

Class Class 3

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £10,308

Runners (17)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (15)	Gisburn Chestnut J:James Doyle T:Richard Hannon	J:James Doyle T:Richard Hannon	130	—	7360-4	90	111	108	19d	—	—	+2	13.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Ran respectably in big field at Doncaster on reappearance; 2-3 over C&D; likely player
3 (11)	Tanmawwy Bay J:William Buick T:Charles Hills	J:William Buick T:Charles Hills	135	h	09310-	95	106	97	222d	—	—	+11	23.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Disappointing on occasions but he's useful when on song; possibilities if back to best
7 (17)	Faro De San Juan Bay J:Kyle Strydom T:Dylan Cunha	J:Kyle Strydom T:Dylan Cunha	128	t	3052-3	88	114	92	19d	—	—	+3	16.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Not sure to build on Doncaster (British debut) effort turned out quickly; seems best fresh
6 (2)	Marshal Dan Bay J:Joshua Bryan T:Heather Main	J:Joshua Bryan T:Heather Main	129	—	0814-3	89	106	88	11d	—	—	+5	15.6	2.00/1	9 11%
Ran well at Redcar last week on seasonal debut; future mark 1lb higher; 3-9 at this venue
16 (3)	Crazy Luck Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Rod Millman	J:Oisin Murphy T:Rod Millman	122	—	96475-	82	109	102	194d	—	—	+2	10.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
2-2 at Newbury, including a win under Oisin Murphy; nicely weighted; respected back here
13 (1)	Zero Carbon Bay J:Pat Cosgrave T:Richard Hughes	J:Pat Cosgrave T:Richard Hughes	123	p	14023-	83	108	73	182d	—	—	+12	18.7	2.50/1	11 9%
Close third to Marshal Dan over C&D when last seen; may improve further this year
1 (10)	Popmaster Grey J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	135	—	04076-	95	111	99	167d	—	—	+5	13.6	2.50/1	11 9%
Runner-up in last year's Wokingham; finally back on last winning mark; one to consider
11 (6)	Haymaker Bay J:Jason Hart T:Hughie Morrison	J:Jason Hart T:Hughie Morrison	125	—	44153-	85	108	92	211d	—	—	+12	18.7	2.50/1	11 9%
Fairly useful 3yo handicapper last season; may have more to offer this term
5 (12)	Sir Thomas Gresham Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Seamus Durack	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Seamus Durack	129	—	942/95	89	103	-	45d	—	—	+6	11.4	4.75/1	20 5%
Having his third run back from long absence; 2-2 on soft ground; not dismissed
NR (9)	Ernies Valentine Grey J:Neil Callan T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Neil Callan T:Paul & Oliver Cole	127	—	38226-	87	106	95	116d	—	—	+13	16.9	4.75/1	20 5%
Forecast slow ground looks a negative; had wind surgery since last run
NR (14)	Bosh Bay J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	135	—	0/340-	95	108	79	288d	—	—	+6	13.1	4.75/1	20 5%
Gelded since last run; has performed well in two Newbury starts; interesting back here
14 (8)	Bernardo Oreilly Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Richard Spencer	J:Hayley Turner T:Richard Spencer	123	—	4358-5	83	111	96	19d	—	—	+4	9.9	3.75/1	16 6%
Poor strike-rate since 2019 but defied a 2lb higher mark over C&D in his younger days
15 (7)	Ataser Bay J:Connor Planas(5) T:T J Kent	J:Connor Planas(5) T:T J Kent	122	—	50840-	82	110	95	174d	—	—	+3	10.1	2.50/1	11 9%
Eyecatcher over C&D last October; however, seems best at 7f
10 (16)	Swayze Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	126	—	202-16	86	107	98	19d	—	—	+6	10.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Not disgraced on soft ground last time but may ideally need a faster surface over 6f
12 (4)	Aplomb Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	J:Marco Ghiani T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	125	p	92360-	85	112	80	189d	—	—	+8	13.4	4.75/1	20 5%
0-10 for current yard; however, went close off 5lb higher over C&D on 2021 reappearance
17 (5)	Fantasy Master Chestnut J:David Egan T:Darryll Holland	J:David Egan T:Darryll Holland	117	p	36133-	77	107	99	177d	—	—	+14	18.8	4.75/1	20 5%
In decent form at Nottingham last autumn; yet to win away from that venue, however
8 (13)	Spanish Star Bay J:David Probert T:Patrick Chamings	J:David Probert T:Patrick Chamings	128	—	33410-	88	107	99	182d	—	—	+16	18.8	12.25/1	50 2%
This 8yo is weighted to the hilt off current mark; others look better treated

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Gisburn	11/2	13/2	6	13/2	6
Tanmawwy	13/2	6	11/2	6	13/2
Faro De San Juan	6/1	11/2	5	5/1	11/2
Marshal Dan	15/2	15/2	9	15/2	7
Crazy Luck	8	17/2	17/2	8	9
Zero Carbon	10	10	10	10	11
Popmaster	11	9	9	10	11
Haymaker	11	11	11	11	11
Sir Thomas Gresham	14	16	20	16	16
Ernies Valentine	20	18	18	18	18
Bosh	14	20	18	16	18
Bernardo Oreilly	16	16	16	16	16
Ataser	11	9/1	11	11	10
Swayze	20	22/1	16	20	20
Aplomb	20	18	14	18	20
Fantasy Master	16	18/1	14	16	20
Spanish Star	40	40	25	40	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tanmawwy

23.1

OR: 11.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

2nd

Fantasy Master

18.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 10.7 Odds: 1.4

3rd

Spanish Star

18.8

OR: 9.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.8

Zero Carbon

18.7

OR: 8.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.9

Haymaker

18.7

OR: 8.8 Form: 8 Odds: 1.9

Ernies Valentine

16.9

OR: 9.3 Form: 6.6 Odds: 1.1

Faro De San Juan

16.1

OR: 9.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Marshal Dan

15.6

OR: 9.8 Form: 3 Odds: 2.9

Popmaster

13.6

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Aplomb

13.4

OR: 8.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.6

Gisburn

13.3

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Bosh

13.1

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Sir Thomas Gresham

11.4

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Crazy Luck

10.4

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Swayze

10.2

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Ataser

10.1

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Bernardo Oreilly

9.9

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tanmawwy	95	106	97
Popmaster	95	111	99
Bosh	95	108	79
Gisburn	90	111	108
Marshal Dan	89	106	88
Sir Thomas Gresham	89	103	—
Faro De San Juan	88	114	92
Spanish Star	88	107	99
Ernies Valentine	87	106	95
Swayze	86	107	98
Haymaker	85	108	92
Aplomb	85	112	80
Zero Carbon	83	108	73
Bernardo Oreilly	83	111	96
Crazy Luck	82	109	102
Ataser	82	110	95
Fantasy Master	77	107	99

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Marshal Dan	11d ago	Quick return
Gisburn	19d ago	Fit
Faro De San Juan	19d ago	Fit
Bernardo Oreilly	19d ago	Fit
Swayze	19d ago	Fit
Sir Thomas Gresham	45d ago	Fit
Ernies Valentine	116d ago	Long break
Popmaster	167d ago	Long break
Ataser	174d ago	Long break
Fantasy Master	177d ago	Long break
Zero Carbon	182d ago	Long break
Spanish Star	182d ago	Long break
Aplomb	189d ago	Long break
Crazy Luck	194d ago	Long break
Haymaker	211d ago	Long break
Tanmawwy	222d ago	Long break
Bosh	288d ago	Long break