Thistle Cabs Group Handicap Hurdle – Ayr

Ayr

16:45

Thistle Cabs Group Handicap Hurdle

Date 2023-04-21

Distance 3m70y

Class Class 3

Going Good To Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £8,450

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7	Off To A Flyer Bay J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	157	—	5-632P	113	127	105	41d	—	—	+5	20.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
The left-handed track and step up in trip are possible positives for this 3m point winner
1	Milan Bridge Bay J:Tom Buckley(3) T:Paul Nicholls	J:Tom Buckley(3) T:Paul Nicholls	168	—	-214B4	124	126	106	73d	—	—	+13	26.1	1.25/1	6 17%
Things haven't gone to plan over fences but he's on a handy mark now back over hurdles
3	Aramax Bay J:Richie McLernon T:Ben Haslam	J:Richie McLernon T:Ben Haslam	167	tp	P87773	123	130	107	23d	—	—	+14	23.9	1.50/1	7 14%
On long losing run but encouraging 2m4f run last time & could appreciate this longer trip
2	Quick Draw Bay J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	168	b	-4211P	124	125	65	55d	—	—	+23	33.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Pulled up over fences last time but improved in that sphere previously; could be a player
15	City Derby Chestnut J:Sean Quinlan T:Lizzie Quinlan	J:Sean Quinlan T:Lizzie Quinlan	149	p	239451	105	128	104	15d	—	—	+17	27.2	1.50/1	7 14%
Capitalised on reduced mark at Wetherby a fortnight ago and a 5lb rise isn't harsh
6	Ladronne Bay J:William Shanahan(7) T:Tjade Collier	J:William Shanahan(7) T:Tjade Collier	159	t	125623	115	127	102	13d	—	—	+17	26.3	2.25/1	10 10%
Has enjoyed a good season over fences; needs to prove he's just as talented over hurdles
8	Atacanter Bay J:Kieren Buckley(3) T:Ross Osullivan	J:Kieren Buckley(3) T:Ross Osullivan	157	—	60052U	113	121	66	12d	—	—	+13	19.7	2.75/1	12 8%
Unexposed Irish raider who could have more to offer and he's on the shortlist
4	Don Hollow Bay J:Bridget Andrews T:Dan Skelton	J:Bridget Andrews T:Dan Skelton	164	t	1-3417	120	123	103	55d	—	—	+19	26.6	2.75/1	12 8%
Disappointing on handicap debut but in top hands and he's much better than that
9	Lepashe Black J:Robert Dunne T:Sam Allwood	J:Robert Dunne T:Sam Allwood	156	—	1-4342	112	126	103	58d	—	—	+18	24.4	2.50/1	11 9%
Went close on handicap debut and this lightly raced 6yo is open to further improvement
NR	Small Present Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Sue Smith	J:NON-RUNNER T:Sue Smith	164	—	453669	120	128	-	13d	—	—	-12	33.8	4.75/1	20 5%
Well handicapped but below par over fences of late and a return to form is needed
16	Jessiemac Brown J:Alan Doyle(5) T:Ian Duncan	J:Alan Doyle(5) T:Ian Duncan	142	t	0P4258	98	128	92	42d	—	—	+10	15.9	3.75/1	16 6%
Runner-up over C&D in February but positive runs have been in the minority this season
NR	Firth Of Forth Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Rose Dobbin	J:NON-RUNNER T:Rose Dobbin	149	—	22P-P6	105	124	-	66d	—	—	-5	22.2	6.00/1	25 4%
Runner-up in two maiden h'dles early last year but unable to replicate that form in h'caps
10	Ratfacemcdougall Bay J:Tom Bellamy T:D J Jeffreys	J:Tom Bellamy T:D J Jeffreys	154	t	-P45U4	110	119	112	99d	—	—	+12	16.1	6.00/1	25 4%
Has tumbled down the weights but this 10yo is hard to fancy on this season's evidence
11	Community Rebel Bay J:Edward Austin(5) T:James Ewart	J:Edward Austin(5) T:James Ewart	153	h	531451	109	121	96	108d	—	—	+25	29.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Won 3m maiden at Musselburgh; not obviously well treated but he could improve
NR	Kingfisher Lane Bay J:Danny Mullins T:S R B Crawford	J:Danny Mullins T:S R B Crawford	149	t	904400	105	126	101	19d	—	—	+12	14.5	9.75/1	40 3%
Tailed off in Ireland the last twice but trainer's horses often worth a second look at Ayr
12	Shadows In The Sky Brown J:Brian Hughes T:Chris Grant	J:Brian Hughes T:Chris Grant	151	—	F-1254	107	122	100	36d	—	—	+12	15	8.00/1	33 3%
Well beaten the last twice but promise previously and not ruled out on handicap debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Off To A Flyer	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Milan Bridge	6	6	5	6	6
Aramax	7	7	7	7	7
Quick Draw	8	15/2	13/2	8	7
City Derby	7	7	7	7	7
Ladronne	10	9	15/2	9	10
Atacanter	12	11	10	11	10
Don Hollow	11	11	10	11	12
Lepashe	10	10	10	10	11
Small Present	20	SP	SP	SP	SP
Jessiemac	16	14	11	16	14
Firth Of Forth	25	SP	SP	SP	SP
Ratfacemcdougall	25	22	18	22	22
Community Rebel	20	20	16	20	22
Kingfisher Lane	33	40	33	33	40
Shadows In The Sky	28	28	25	28	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Small Present

33.8

OR: 17.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 15.4

2nd

Quick Draw

33.4

OR: 18.5 Form: 12 Odds: 2.9

15/2

3rd

Community Rebel

29.6

OR: 14.8 Form: 13.6 Odds: 1.2

City Derby

27.2

OR: 13.8 Form: 10.6 Odds: 2.9

Don Hollow

26.6

OR: 17.5 Form: 7 Odds: 2.1

Ladronne

26.3

OR: 16.3 Form: 7.5 Odds: 2.5

Milan Bridge

26.1

OR: 18.5 Form: 4 Odds: 3.6

Lepashe

24.4

OR: 15.5 Form: 7 Odds: 1.9

Aramax

23.9

OR: 18.3 Form: 3 Odds: 2.7

Firth Of Forth

22.2

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 8.5

Off To A Flyer

20.2

OR: 15.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Atacanter

19.7

OR: 15.8 Form: 2 Odds: 1.9

Ratfacemcdougall

16.1

OR: 15 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Jessiemac

15.9

OR: 12 Form: 2.2 Odds: 1.7

Shadows In The Sky

OR: 14.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Kingfisher Lane

14.5

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Milan Bridge	124	126	106
Quick Draw	124	125	65
Aramax	123	130	107
Don Hollow	120	123	103
Small Present	120	128	—
Ladronne	115	127	102
Off To A Flyer	113	127	105
Atacanter	113	121	66
Lepashe	112	126	103
Ratfacemcdougall	110	119	112
Community Rebel	109	121	96
Shadows In The Sky	107	122	100
City Derby	105	128	104
Firth Of Forth	105	124	—
Kingfisher Lane	105	126	101
Jessiemac	98	128	92

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Atacanter	12d ago	Quick return
Ladronne	13d ago	Quick return
Small Present	13d ago	Quick return
City Derby	15d ago	Fit
Kingfisher Lane	19d ago	Fit
Aramax	23d ago	Fit
Shadows In The Sky	36d ago	Fit
Off To A Flyer	41d ago	Fit
Jessiemac	42d ago	Fit
Quick Draw	55d ago	Fresh
Don Hollow	55d ago	Fresh
Lepashe	58d ago	Fresh
Firth Of Forth	66d ago	Fresh
Milan Bridge	73d ago	Fresh
Ratfacemcdougall	99d ago	Long break
Community Rebel	108d ago	Long break