Alan (Rabbit) Welch Tribute Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

Newton Abbot

14:35

Date 2023-05-17

Distance 2m167y

Class Class 4

Going Good To Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,159

Winning Time 4m 2.35s (slow by 16.35s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Oakley Dancer (GB) Fergus Gregory · Olly Murphy	13/2	Won
2nd	King Of The Lake (GB) Rex Dingle · Jeremy Scott	EvensF	6
3rd	Mairis Icon (GB) Micheal Nolan · Seamus Mullins	150/1	2
4th	Zufal (GB) Bryony Frost · Jimmy Frost	300/1	0.3
5th	Astronomic View (GB) Lucy Gardner · Sue Gardner	9/4	3
6th	Shot Tower (IRE) Charlie Hammond · Joe Ponting	80/1	5
7th	Tidal Storm (GB) Paul O'Brien · Harry Derham	4/1	3.5
8th	Marley Head (IRE) Brendan Powell · Joe Tizzard	50/1	3
9th	Maskara (GB) Adam Wedge · Evan Williams	250/1	3.75
10th	Bohemian Lad (IRE) Bryan Carver · Anthony Honeyball	100/1	21
11th	Dark Moon (FR) Conor Ring · Alexandra Dunn	250/1	51

Non-Runners / Other

Status	Horse	SP
P.U.	La Bretesche (FR) Alan Johns · Jeremy Scott	40/1

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3	King Of The Lake Bay J:Rex Dingle T:Jeremy Scott	J:Rex Dingle T:Jeremy Scott	156	—	2-	-	123	85	51d	—	—	-25	20	0.23/1	10/11 52%
Promising second on career debut at Wincanton; leading player
1	Astronomic View Chestnut J:Lucy Gardner T:Sue Gardner	J:Lucy Gardner T:Sue Gardner	156	—	138/3-	-	121	112	173d	—	—	-15	11	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Leading contender on form; back from six months off and best on soft ground
4	Oakley Dancer Bay J:Fergus Gregory T:Olly Murphy	J:Fergus Gregory T:Olly Murphy	156	—	4361-	107	120	87	55d	—	—	+15	30.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Made all at Chepstow in March and form has been boosted; claims under a penalty
8	Tidal Storm Bay J:Paul O'Brien T:Harry Derham	J:Paul O'Brien T:Harry Derham	150	—	30-	-	105	49	—	—	—	-6	5.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Third on hurdle debut but tailed off next time; still of interest on first start for yard
7	Marley Head Chestnut J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	150	—	U6-	-	94	41	23d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Placed on the Flat but beaten long way when completing over hurdles last month
2	Bohemian Lad Bay J:Bryan Carver T:Anthony Honeyball	J:Bryan Carver T:Anthony Honeyball	156	—	777-	-	86	69	59d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Well beaten in all three career starts
11	La Bretesche Chestnut J:Alan Johns T:Jeremy Scott	J:Alan Johns T:Jeremy Scott	143	—	3P8-	-	-	-	263d	—	—	-1	0.9	16.25/1	66 2%
Placed on the Flat and over hurdles in France; British debut after nine months off
5	Shot Tower Bay J:Charlie Hammond T:Joe Ponting	J:Charlie Hammond T:Joe Ponting	156	t	F3337-	-	103	83	37d	—	—	+3	4.6	24.75/1	100 1%
Placed on hurdle debut but tailed off since; others much more likely
10	Maskara Bay J:Adam Wedge T:Evan Williams	J:Adam Wedge T:Evan Williams	149	—	70-	-	88	69	19d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Well beaten in both starts, including on recent hurdle debut
12	Mairis Icon b/br J:Micheal Nolan T:Seamus Mullins	J:Micheal Nolan T:Seamus Mullins	143	—	085-	-	86	33	26d	—	—	-1	0.3	24.75/1	100 1%
Tailed off in bumpers; better when fifth on hurdle debut but still limited appeal
9	Dark Moon Bay J:Conor Ring(3) T:Alexandra Dunn	J:Conor Ring(3) T:Alexandra Dunn	149	—	097-	-	-	-	34d	—	—	-1	0.3	49.75/1	200 1%
Tailed off in two bumpers and one over hurdles
6	Zufal Bay J:Bryony Frost T:Jimmy Frost	J:Bryony Frost T:Jimmy Frost	156	—	0/P-	-	-	-	39d	—	—	-1	0.2	49.75/1	200 1%
Tailed off in an Irish point and on hurdle debut last month

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
King Of The Lake	5/6	10/11	5/6	5/6	5/6
Astronomic View	5/2	2	17/8	9/4	9/4
Oakley Dancer	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Tidal Storm	11/2	7	7	13/2	13/2
Marley Head	40	66	66	66	66
Bohemian Lad	100	100	100	100	100
La Bretesche	66	50	40	40	50
Shot Tower	100	80	80	80	80
Maskara	100	100	100	100	100
Mairis Icon	100	100	100	100	100
Dark Moon	200	200	200	200	200
Zufal	200	200	200	200	200

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Oakley Dancer

30.2

OR: 14.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

King Of The Lake

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 15

10/11

3rd

Astronomic View

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 8

5/2

Tidal Storm

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Shot Tower

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 4.2 Odds: 0.4

100

La Bretesche

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0.5 Odds: 0.5

Marley Head

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Bohemian Lad

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Maskara

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Mairis Icon

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100

Dark Moon

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

200

Zufal

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Oakley Dancer	107	120	87
King Of The Lake	—	123	85
Astronomic View	—	121	112
Tidal Storm	—	105	49
Marley Head	—	94	41
Bohemian Lad	—	86	69
La Bretesche	—	—	—
Shot Tower	—	103	83
Maskara	—	88	69
Mairis Icon	—	86	33
Dark Moon	—	—	—
Zufal	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Maskara	19d ago	Fit
Marley Head	23d ago	Fit
Mairis Icon	26d ago	Fit
Dark Moon	34d ago	Fit
Shot Tower	37d ago	Fit
Zufal	39d ago	Fit
King Of The Lake	51d ago	Fresh
Oakley Dancer	55d ago	Fresh
Bohemian Lad	59d ago	Fresh
Astronomic View	173d ago	Long break
La Bretesche	263d ago	Long break
Tidal Storm	—	—