Jenningsbet In Allerdene Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:30

Jenningsbet In Allerdene Handicap

Date 2023-06-29

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £5,155

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (5)	Cruise Bay J:P J McDonald T:Ollie Sangster	J:P J McDonald T:Ollie Sangster	135	—	8-2216	79	91	73	31d	—	—	-12	15.7	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Won 6f maiden for new yard; good 6f handicap form on Tapeta/turf; return to 5f could suit
1 (7)	Thankuappreciate Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Nigel Tinkler	135	—	-32032	79	91	-	10d	—	—	-2	24.5	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Sole win in 6f novice; weighted to find a handicap but slow starts cost him; AW debut
4 (6)	Desert Games Bay J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	134	v	35-442	78	92	-	18d	—	—	-5	12	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Not clear run when promising 2nd over 5f on turf latest; respected back on Tapeta
3 (2)	Beelzebub Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	134	p	1-1304	78	90	59	15d	—	—	+3	18.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Won handicap debut over 6f here; interesting candidate for 5f; cheekpieces fitted
5 (4)	Family Ties Bay J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	126	—	054-62	70	82	24	47d	—	—	+3	5.8	6.75/1	28 4%
Won 6f turf novice last summer; has not proved well treated in handicaps so far
6 (3)	Mistamac Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	124	—	373-55	68	89	70	14d	—	—	+2	5.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Showed up well when 3rd over C&D on final 2yo start; may improve in this first AW handicap
7 (1)	Borough Bay J:William Pyle(7) T:Iain Jardine	J:William Pyle(7) T:Iain Jardine	118	—	8-5625	62	87	-	8d	—	—	+1	3.9	6.75/1	28 4%
Has 5f form on Tapeta; high in weights so far but having first run in 5f AW handicap

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Cruise	2	2	15/8	2	2
Thankuappreciate	2	9/4	2	2	2
Desert Games	9/2	4	4	4	4
Beelzebub	5	4	5	5	9/2
Family Ties	28	25	28	28	28
Mistamac	20	20	22	20	20
Borough	22	25	25	28	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Thankuappreciate

24.5

OR: 7.3 Form: 9.2 Odds: 8

9/4

2nd

Beelzebub

18.4

OR: 7 Form: 7 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Cruise

15.7

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

15/8

Desert Games

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

Family Ties

5.8

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Mistamac

5.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Borough

3.9

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Cruise	79	91	73
Thankuappreciate	79	91	—
Desert Games	78	92	—
Beelzebub	78	90	59
Family Ties	70	82	24
Mistamac	68	89	70
Borough	62	87	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Borough	8d ago	Quick return
Thankuappreciate	10d ago	Quick return
Mistamac	14d ago	Fit
Beelzebub	15d ago	Fit
Desert Games	18d ago	Fit
Cruise	31d ago	Fit
Family Ties	47d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.