Essex Horse & Pony Protection Society Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

17:40

Essex Horse & Pony Protection Society Handicap

Date 2023-07-09

Distance 5f

Class Class 3

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £13,500

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (1)	The Thames Boatman Bay J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	124	—	0-1344	79	101	91	25d	—	0W/1P 1 run	-7	13.4	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Flopped last time but earlier h'cap form looks strong; more to come; big chance back on AW
7 (6)	Democracy Dilemma Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:David Evans	J:Hollie Doyle T:David Evans	131	v	321853	86	100	78	27d	—	—	+3	21.2	0.75/1	4 25%
2 wins this year; only 1lb higher than for latest in April; competition for the lead here
2 (8)	Rogue Spirit Bay J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Tom Clover	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Tom Clover	135	—	718-00	90	99	-	16d	—	—	+1	13.6	1.50/1	7 14%
Three 2yo wins, very impressive in a Haydock nursery; struggled in two hot races in 2023
NR (4)	Lord Riddiford Grey J:NON-RUNNER T:John Quinn	J:NON-RUNNER T:John Quinn	134	—	-43800	84	100	-	36d	—	—	-41	29.4	—	—
Good record over C&D and he's dropped to a good mark; down in class; respected
4 (9)	Twilight Madness Chestnut J:Ross Coakley T:Simon Hodgson	J:Ross Coakley T:Simon Hodgson	133	—	14-407	83	100	70	34d	—	—	0	11.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Unexposed at 5f and he's quickly slipped back to a handy mark; revival possible
1 (2)	May Sonic Bay J:William Buick T:Charles Hills	J:William Buick T:Charles Hills	142	—	3-9167	92	96	58	114d	—	—	+4	15.9	1.75/1	8 13%
Only 1lb higher than for a Southwell win in January; less good twice since; off 114 days
5 (3)	Angle Land Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Robert Cowell	J:Hayley Turner T:Robert Cowell	133	v	562166	83	98	-	15d	—	—	+8	17.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
C&D winner who has thrived since Christmas; excuses the last twice; one to consider
6 (7)	Bear Profit Bay J:Sean Levey T:Stuart Williams	J:Sean Levey T:Stuart Williams	132	—	613-88	82	99	-	20d	—	—	0	11.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Both his wins have come here; fair mark on last year's best; revival could be imminent
8 (5)	The Defiant Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Daniel Steele	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Daniel Steele	124	t	723461	74	98	89	17d	—	—	+11	20.4	2.50/1	11 9%
Ready winner of weaker C&D handicap latest; 5lb rise in stronger company may find him out

Horse	bet365	Coral
The Thames Boatman	7/2	3
Democracy Dilemma	4	4
Rogue Spirit	7	6
Lord Riddiford	SP	SP
Twilight Madness	7	13/2
May Sonic	11/2	8
Angle Land	17/2	8
Bear Profit	13/2	7
The Defiant	11	8

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lord Riddiford

29.4

OR: 8.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 20

—

2nd

Democracy Dilemma

21.2

OR: 9 Form: 7 Odds: 5.2

3rd

The Defiant

20.4

OR: 6 Form: 11.9 Odds: 2.5

Angle Land

17.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.7

17/2

May Sonic

15.9

OR: 10.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.3

Rogue Spirit

13.6

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

The Thames Boatman

13.4

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

7/2

Twilight Madness

11.6

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Bear Profit

11.1

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
May Sonic	92	96	58
Rogue Spirit	90	99	—
Democracy Dilemma	86	100	78
Lord Riddiford	84	100	—
Twilight Madness	83	100	70
Angle Land	83	98	—
Bear Profit	82	99	—
The Thames Boatman	79	101	91
The Defiant	74	98	89

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Angle Land	15d ago	Fit
Rogue Spirit	16d ago	Fit
The Defiant	17d ago	Fit
Bear Profit	20d ago	Fit
The Thames Boatman	25d ago	Fit
Democracy Dilemma	27d ago	Fit
Twilight Madness	34d ago	Fit
Lord Riddiford	36d ago	Fit
May Sonic	114d ago	Long break