Ascot Racecourse Supports Sebastian's Action Trust Handicap

Ascot

17:15

Date 2023-07-15

Distance 7f

Class Class 4

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £8,191

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (2)	Bussento Bay J:James Doyle T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:James Doyle T:Eve Johnson Houghton	134	p	-37422	85	94	66	7d	—	—	-7	29.6	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Two solid efforts since returned to 7f; solid contender; cheekpieces on
NR (11)	Final Watch Bay J:Billy Loughnane(3) T:William Stone	J:Billy Loughnane(3) T:William Stone	148	—	8-4821	91	94	63	1d	—	—	-44	30.3	1.00/1	5 20%
C&D winner in 2022; narrow 7f win at Newmarket yesterday (good to soft)
4 (8)	Farasi Lane Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Tom Ward	J:Hector Crouch T:Tom Ward	139	v	166453	82	92	75	14d	—	—	0	15.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Mostly races over further now but won latest 7f start (AW); in form; can go well
NR (6)	Gulmarg Bay J:Ben Curtis T:S Woods	J:Ben Curtis T:S Woods	132	p	-33327	83	92	86	16d	—	—	+6	18.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Reliable in defeat since 7f win last August but he didn't do at all well last time
2 (13)	Letmelivemylife Bay J:Adam Kirby T:Sean Curran	J:Adam Kirby T:Sean Curran	140	—	411136	83	91	70	56d	—	—	+13	23.2	1.88/1	15/2 12%
All 5 wins on AW; good late work over 6f back on turf in May; can do better back at 7f
9 (7)	Zu Run Bay J:Harry Davies(3) T:Andrew Balding	J:Harry Davies(3) T:Andrew Balding	134	—	512-97	85	91	57	17d	—	—	+1	11.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Promising 7f AW winner as 2yo; has more to prove on 7f and 1m form on turf this year
NR (9)	Epsom Faithfull Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Pat Phelan	J:NON-RUNNER T:Pat Phelan	137	t	570903	80	93	-	34d	—	—	-22	27.6	2.75/1	12 8%
Multiple winner; 7f winner on AW but stamina for 7f on turf has still to be proved
11 (14)	Sayifyouwill Bay J:Jim Crowley T:Amanda Perrett	J:Jim Crowley T:Amanda Perrett	134	—	317184	77	89	76	38d	—	—	+8	16	2.50/1	11 9%
Better strike-rate on AW than turf (1-17) but a stiff 7f suits; unlucky at Newbury latest
NR (12)	Lord Rapscallion Grey J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Stuart Williams	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Stuart Williams	138	t	536107	81	90	64	10d	—	—	+8	15.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Only 1lb higher than latest winning mark (7f) in May but 6 of last 7 wins in headgear
NR (3)	Siam Fox Bay J:David Egan T:Kevin Frost	J:David Egan T:Kevin Frost	140	—	1-6178	83	91	69	28d	—	—	0	21.6	3.75/1	16 6%
All 4 wins at about 1m; weakened on latest 2 starts; first 7f run since 2020
6 (4)	Pearle Dor Chestnut J:Richard Kingscote T:David Omeara	J:Richard Kingscote T:David Omeara	138	h	0-0269	81	90	71	14d	—	—	+3	9.5	3.25/1	14 7%
Winning 6f debut in Ireland as 2yo; not obviously crying out for return to 7f
7 (1)	Golden Spice Bay J:Tom Queally T:George Margarson	J:Tom Queally T:George Margarson	138	—	20-080	81	89	54	24d	—	—	+3	9.5	3.25/1	14 7%
Four front-running 7f wins in 2022; not yet found form this year; needs about-turn
14 (10)	Achillea Bay J:Jefferson Smith T:Dean Ivory	J:Jefferson Smith T:Dean Ivory	121	—	46-30	72	88	49	30d	—	—	+2	6.9	3.75/1	16 6%
Early promise over 7f but couldn't raise her game on 1m handicap debut
13 (5)	Ellexis Bay J:George Rooke T:Roger Teal	J:George Rooke T:Roger Teal	128	ht	41-57	79	89	48	38d	—	—	+5	8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Promising 2yo over 6f (here) and 7f (AW) but nothing doing over 1m and 7f this year

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Bussento	11/8	6/5	6/5	5/4	5/4
Final Watch	5	5	5	5	5
Farasi Lane	9/2	5	4	9/2	5
Gulmarg	8	15/2	7	15/2	7
Letmelivemylife	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	8
Zu Run	15/2	7	13/2	7	15/2
Epsom Faithfull	12	SP	SP	SP	SP
Sayifyouwill	10	11	17/2	10	10
Lord Rapscallion	14	14	14	14	14
Siam Fox	16	16	14	16	16
Pearle Dor	14	11	11	14	14
Golden Spice	14	14	11	14	12
Achillea	16	16	14	16	16
Ellexis	33	33/1	28	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Final Watch

30.3

OR: 10.3 Form: 0 Odds: 20

2nd

Bussento

29.6

OR: 8.8 Form: 9.1 Odds: 11.8

11/8

3rd

Epsom Faithfull

27.6

OR: 7.5 Form: 3 Odds: 17.1

Letmelivemylife

23.2

OR: 8.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Siam Fox

21.6

OR: 8.3 Form: 7 Odds: 6.4

Gulmarg

18.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 3.5

15/2

Sayifyouwill

OR: 6.8 Form: 7 Odds: 2.2

Lord Rapscallion

15.6

OR: 7.8 Form: 5.6 Odds: 2.2

Farasi Lane

15.4

OR: 8 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Zu Run

11.6

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Pearle Dor

9.5

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Golden Spice

9.5

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Ellexis

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Achillea

6.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Final Watch	91	94	63
Bussento	85	94	66
Zu Run	85	91	57
Gulmarg	83	92	86
Letmelivemylife	83	91	70
Siam Fox	83	91	69
Farasi Lane	82	92	75
Lord Rapscallion	81	90	64
Pearle Dor	81	90	71
Golden Spice	81	89	54
Epsom Faithfull	80	93	—
Ellexis	79	89	48
Sayifyouwill	77	89	76
Achillea	72	88	49

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Final Watch	1d ago	Quick return
Bussento	7d ago	Quick return
Lord Rapscallion	10d ago	Quick return
Farasi Lane	14d ago	Fit
Pearle Dor	14d ago	Fit
Gulmarg	16d ago	Fit
Zu Run	17d ago	Fit
Golden Spice	24d ago	Fit
Siam Fox	28d ago	Fit
Achillea	30d ago	Fit
Epsom Faithfull	34d ago	Fit
Sayifyouwill	38d ago	Fit
Ellexis	38d ago	Fit
Letmelivemylife	56d ago	Fresh