Follow Attheraces On Twitter Handicap (Div I) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:15

Follow Attheraces On Twitter Handicap (Div I)

Date 2023-08-03

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,234

Winning Time 1m 11.93s (slow by 1.53s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Dandys Derriere (GB) Harry Russell · Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	16/1	Won
2nd	Headabovetherest (IRE) David Allan · Tim Easterby	18/1	.75
3rd	Mostallim (GB) Christian Howarth · Michael Appleby	15/8F	.5
4th	Final Frontier (IRE) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	11/1	0.2
5th	Noble Captain (GB) Phil Dennis · Katie Scott	22/1	.5
6th	Muddy Lynn (GB) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	5/2	1.5
7th	Aclaim To Fame (IRE) Graham Lee · Rebecca Menzies	50/1	1
8th	Liberty Breeze (GB) Sean Kirrane · Simon Whitaker	25/1	0.2
9th	Tathmeen (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	22/1	1
10th	Nickleby (IRE) Ryan Sexton · Julie Camacho	11/1	.75
11th	Royal Mariner (IRE) P J McDonald · Ewan Whillans	33/1	.75
12th	Tees George (GB) Connor Murtagh · Adrian Nicholls	33/1	1.75

Non-Runners / Other

Status	Horse	SP
DSQ	Glorious Rio (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Stella Barclay	15/2

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (13)	Mostallim Bay J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Michael Appleby	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Michael Appleby	130	b	743051	55	83	71	9d	—	—	-5	19.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
9lb well in after last week's easy Chelmsford win; might face pressure for the lead though
5 (10)	Muddy Lynn Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	133	—	973713	58	74	48	10d	—	—	-2	19.1	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Impressive over C&D in June; solid 3rd on turf latest; could have more to come on AW
4 (12)	Nickleby Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	133	v	5-1269	58	72	49	132d	—	—	-4	4.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
C&D winner in February; can go well fresh so a four-month absence no bad thing
1 (9)	Glorious Rio Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Stella Barclay	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Stella Barclay	135	b	466368	60	74	53	21d	—	—	-2	6.5	2.25/1	10 10%
Should be competitive off reduced mark but that was the case last time too when only 8th
13 (11)	Final Frontier Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	121	h	-38055	46	76	74	22d	—	—	-3	2	4.25/1	18 6%
Of interest on this winter's AW form and should be at concert pitch after two turf runs
6 (4)	Liberty Breeze Bay J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Simon Whitaker	J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Simon Whitaker	132	p	072120	57	70	-	8d	—	—	+7	13.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Good spell of form came to an end at Catterick last week; cheekpieces now reached for
NR (2)	Zegos Surprise Grey J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	121	t	479526	46	73	48	3d	—	—	-2	5.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Losing run stands at 20 and she was well below her best on Monday
3 (6)	Tathmeen Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	134	p	284636	59	74	64	9d	—	—	-1	6.3	3.75/1	16 6%
Good third at Wolverhampton last month (5f) but his form dipped over 7f last week
11 (14)	Noble Captain Chestnut J:Phil Dennis T:Katie Scott	J:Phil Dennis T:Katie Scott	125	t	-54842	54	71	65	15d	—	—	+3	7.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Two good runs at Wolverhampton since dropped to 6f; this track may suit him better
7 (8)	Headabovetherest Chestnut J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	131	—	96-097	60	73	-	34d	—	—	-2	4.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Didn't run badly dropped to 6f last time but even that form needs bettering to win here
12 (7)	Aclaim To Fame Bay J:Graham Lee T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Graham Lee T:Rebecca Menzies	123	v	42505	52	78	-	13d	—	—	-4	4.4	4.75/1	20 5%
Has shown promise but also some quirks; visor and switch to AW need to make a difference
2 (5)	Dandys Derriere Bay J:Harry Russell(3) T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Harry Russell(3) T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	134	tp	650616	59	74	35	16d	—	—	+7	10.2	6.00/1	25 4%
6f winner last month and slow ground perhaps no good latest; headgear back on today
10 (3)	Royal Mariner Bay J:P J McDonald T:Ewan Whillans	J:P J McDonald T:Ewan Whillans	126	b	655566	55	69	61	15d	—	—	-1	2.2	6.00/1	25 4%
Not beaten far at Wolverhampton last time but he has work to do with Noble Captain
9 (1)	Tees George Bay J:Connor Murtagh T:Adrian Nicholls	J:Connor Murtagh T:Adrian Nicholls	129	—	70304	58	70	27	46d	—	—	+1	4.4	6.00/1	25 4%
Unexposed 3yo who wasn't beaten far in a slightly higher grade last time; can do better

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Mostallim	11/4	11/4	9/4	11/4	11/4
Muddy Lynn	10/3	10/3	3	11/4	10/3
Nickleby	9	9	17/2	9	9
Glorious Rio	10	9	17/2	9	9
Final Frontier	18	18	18	18	18
Liberty Breeze	14	14	12	14	14
Zegos Surprise	10	12	16	11	11
Tathmeen	10	16	14	10	16
Noble Captain	20	18	16	20	20
Headabovetherest	20	16	11	16	16
Aclaim To Fame	20	11	10	11	11
Dandys Derriere	20	25	22	20	25
Royal Mariner	20	25	25	25	25
Tees George	22	25	25	22	25

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mostallim

19.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 10.9 Odds: 7.3

11/4

2nd

Muddy Lynn

19.1

OR: 2 Form: 10.9 Odds: 6.2

10/3

3rd

Liberty Breeze

13.7

OR: 1.8 Form: 10 Odds: 1.9

Dandys Derriere

10.2

OR: 2.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1

Noble Captain

7.2

OR: 1 Form: 5 Odds: 1.2

Glorious Rio

6.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

Tathmeen

6.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.9

Zegos Surprise

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.9

Nickleby

4.4

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Aclaim To Fame

4.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.4

Tees George

4.4

OR: 2 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.9

Headabovetherest

4.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Royal Mariner

2.2

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Final Frontier

OR: 0 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Glorious Rio	60	74	53
Headabovetherest	60	73	—
Tathmeen	59	74	64
Dandys Derriere	59	74	35
Muddy Lynn	58	74	48
Nickleby	58	72	49
Tees George	58	70	27
Liberty Breeze	57	70	—
Mostallim	55	83	71
Royal Mariner	55	69	61
Noble Captain	54	71	65
Aclaim To Fame	52	78	—
Final Frontier	46	76	74
Zegos Surprise	46	73	48

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Zegos Surprise	3d ago	Quick return
Liberty Breeze	8d ago	Quick return
Mostallim	9d ago	Quick return
Tathmeen	9d ago	Quick return
Muddy Lynn	10d ago	Quick return
Aclaim To Fame	13d ago	Quick return
Noble Captain	15d ago	Fit
Royal Mariner	15d ago	Fit
Dandys Derriere	16d ago	Fit
Glorious Rio	21d ago	Fit
Final Frontier	22d ago	Fit
Headabovetherest	34d ago	Fit
Tees George	46d ago	Fresh
Nickleby	132d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.