Follow Attheraces On Twitter Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:45

Follow Attheraces On Twitter Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-08-03

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,234

Winning Time 1m 11.88s (slow by 1.48s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Caribbean Sunset (IRE) Oliver Stammers · Grant Tuer	100/30	Won
2nd	Dream Together (IRE) Jack Garritty · Jedd O'Keeffe	14/1	.75
3rd	Kraken Power (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	15/2	.5
4th	Mutanaaseq (IRE) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	12/1	0.2
5th	Lupset Flossy Pop (IRE) Rowan Scott · Phillip Makin	33/1	.5
6th	Guest List (IRE) William Pyle · Katie Scott	22/1	1
7th	Struck Gold (IRE) Sam James · John Butler	14/1	0.1
8th	Variety Island (GB) Phil Dennis · Simon Whitaker	7/1	0.3
9th	One For The Ladies (GB) Shane Gray · Michael & David Easterby	10/1	1.75
10th	Churchill Bay (GB) Lewis Edmunds · Ronald Thompson	18/1	0.3
11th	Fai Fai (GB) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	50/1	.5
12th	Wee Fat Mac (GB) Andrew Mullen · Iain Jardine	16/5F	0.1
13th	Merry Secret (IRE) Graham Lee · Lawrence Mullaney	22/1	1
14th	Silverlode (IRE) Mikkel Mortensen · Brian Ellison	28/1	.75

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (2)	Caribbean Sunset Bay J:Oliver Stammers T:Grant Tuer	J:Oliver Stammers T:Grant Tuer	135	—	543332	60	76	-	3d	—	—	-4	18.7	0.50/1	3 33%
Running well on turf in recent weeks and should give it another good go back on AW
9 (1)	Variety Island Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	128	p	058522	53	75	60	34d	—	—	-1	13.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
C&D winner who comes here on the back of two 2nds at the track; draw might prove tricky
5 (13)	Kraken Power Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	133	—	433557	58	74	64	10d	—	—	-3	6	2.00/1	9 11%
Returns to AW off a sporting mark; one for the shortlist
13 (10)	Struck Gold Bay J:Sam James T:John Butler	J:Sam James T:John Butler	121	b	028232	50	73	63	15d	—	—	+5	12.8	2.50/1	11 9%
Nine-race maiden but placed in each of his four starts on Tapeta; one to consider
7 (5)	Dream Together Chestnut J:Jack Garritty T:Jedd Okeeffe	J:Jack Garritty T:Jedd Okeeffe	131	p	-57664	56	72	63	34d	—	—	-5	4	2.25/1	10 10%
Down in the weights and ran OK over C&D 5 weeks ago; now gets cheekpieces; not ruled out
2 (7)	Wee Fat Mac Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	134	—	240627	59	75	52	17d	—	—	0	8.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Conditions to suit and he returns to AW off a fair mark; not discounted
10 (9)	One For The Ladies Bay J:Shane Gray T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Shane Gray T:Michael & David Easterby	126	—	718/71	51	70	64	15d	—	—	-6	2.6	2.25/1	10 10%
Beat Struck Gold narrowly 15 days ago; still has handicapping potential up just 1lb
8 (3)	Mutanaaseq Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	129	—	125421	54	81	-	8d	—	—	+10	17.6	2.75/1	12 8%
In good form on turf this summer and lower AW mark to exploit; not ruled out.
12 (14)	Merry Secret Bay J:Graham Lee T:Lawrence Mullaney	J:Graham Lee T:Lawrence Mullaney	123	tp	083036	48	68	41	14d	—	—	-1	4.6	3.75/1	16 6%
C&D winner off 4lb higher in March; in and out since but he can't be discounted
14 (11)	Silverlode Grey J:Mikkel Mortensen(7) T:Brian Ellison	J:Mikkel Mortensen(7) T:Brian Ellison	120	v	-48668	49	74	78	21d	—	—	-6	2.2	4.25/1	18 6%
Struggled in 2023 but his C&D 2nd off 12lb higher in December gives him a shout; visor on
4 (6)	Guest List Grey J:William Pyle(7) T:Katie Scott	J:William Pyle(7) T:Katie Scott	133	—	6-9695	58	70	54	10d	—	—	-3	3.7	3.75/1	16 6%
Didn't run badly over 7f ten days ago but others still look more appealing for the win
6 (4)	Churchill Bay Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Ronald Thompson	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Ronald Thompson	132	t	360908	57	67	38	34d	—	—	-2	3.4	6.00/1	25 4%
Best run for this yard came over C&D but more recent efforts make him hard to recommend
11 (8)	Lupset Flossy Pop Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	125	—	776007	54	63	38	26d	—	—	-4	2.7	5.25/1	22 5%
C&D winner off a 10lb higher mark last October; struggling for form this time around
3 (12)	Fai Fai Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	134	h	-08778	59	70	57	23d	—	0W/0P 1 run	0	3	9.75/1	40 3%
Fair winner in France; yet to really get going in Britain and he remains opposable

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Caribbean Sunset	3	3	3	3	3
Variety Island	13/2	6	6	11/2	11/2
Kraken Power	8	9	8	9	9
Struck Gold	11	10	17/2	10	10
Dream Together	10	9	10	10	10
Wee Fat Mac	8	14	12	12	14
One For The Ladies	8	10	9	9	9
Mutanaaseq	9	12	12	12	12
Merry Secret	16	16	14	12	16
Silverlode	18	10	9	10	10
Guest List	14	16	14	16	16
Churchill Bay	25	14	16	16	16
Lupset Flossy Pop	22	16	11	16	16
Fai Fai	40	33	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Caribbean Sunset

18.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 9.5 Odds: 6.7

2nd

Mutanaaseq

17.6

OR: 1 Form: 14.5 Odds: 2.1

3rd

Variety Island

13.3

OR: 0.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 4

13/2

Struck Gold

12.8

OR: 0 Form: 10.6 Odds: 2.2

Wee Fat Mac

8.1

OR: 2.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.4

Kraken Power

OR: 2 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

Merry Secret

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.6

Dream Together

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

Guest List

3.7

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Churchill Bay

3.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Fai Fai

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Lupset Flossy Pop

2.7

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

One For The Ladies

2.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Silverlode

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Caribbean Sunset	60	76	—
Wee Fat Mac	59	75	52
Fai Fai	59	70	57
Kraken Power	58	74	64
Guest List	58	70	54
Churchill Bay	57	67	38
Dream Together	56	72	63
Mutanaaseq	54	81	—
Lupset Flossy Pop	54	63	38
Variety Island	53	75	60
One For The Ladies	51	70	64
Struck Gold	50	73	63
Silverlode	49	74	78
Merry Secret	48	68	41

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Caribbean Sunset	3d ago	Quick return
Mutanaaseq	8d ago	Quick return
Kraken Power	10d ago	Quick return
Guest List	10d ago	Quick return
Merry Secret	14d ago	Fit
Struck Gold	15d ago	Fit
One For The Ladies	15d ago	Fit
Wee Fat Mac	17d ago	Fit
Silverlode	21d ago	Fit
Fai Fai	23d ago	Fit
Lupset Flossy Pop	26d ago	Fit
Variety Island	34d ago	Fit
Dream Together	34d ago	Fit
Churchill Bay	34d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.