Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:05

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2023-08-03

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,245

Winning Time 1m 25.22s (slow by 1.42s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Patontheback (IRE) Rowan Scott · Gemma Tutty	13/2	Won
2nd	El Jad (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	8/1	4
3rd	Mercurius Power (IRE) Sean Kirrane · Jessica Macey	15/2	0.2
4th	Saisons d'Or (IRE) Jack Garritty · Jedd O'Keeffe	17/2	.5
5th	Ibiza Rocks (GB) Harry Russell · Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	6/1	2.25
6th	Go Sing (IRE) Ryan Sexton · Julie Camacho	15/2	0.3
7th	Keep Me Stable (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Linda Perratt	80/1	1
8th	Billy McGarry (GB) Lewis Edmunds · David C Griffiths	20/1	0.05
9th	My Roxanne (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	7/2F	0.3
10th	Star Map (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Ed Dunlop	33/1	3.25
11th	Late Arrival (IRE) Lewis Chalkley · Michael & David Easterby	9/1	.5
12th	Castleberg Rock (GB) Tom Eaves · Ray Craggs	50/1	2
13th	Mai Alward (GB) Phil Dennis · Tristan Davidson	40/1	.75
14th	Howyoulikemenow (IRE) Jamie Spencer · George Boughey	14/1	14

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
14 (12)	My Roxanne Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	129	—	513313	58	72	51	17d	—	—	+4	21.6	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Continues to break slowly but it has not stopped her from racking up a good run of form
10 (10)	Go Sing Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	136	—	700-35	59	72	-	27d	—	—	-6	5.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Respectable in Class 5s for this yard and this should be easier
6 (9)	Patontheback Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	139	—	-26340	62	74	50	13d	—	—	-2	8.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Losing run mounting up but returning to 7f won't hurt and has form here
3 (7)	Saisons Dor Roan J:Jack Garritty T:Jedd Okeeffe	J:Jack Garritty T:Jedd Okeeffe	142	—	170323	65	74	61	24d	—	—	+4	14.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Multiple winner and best at 7f; placed in his last three runs (last two over 1m)
5 (2)	Ibiza Rocks Grey J:Harry Russell(3) T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Harry Russell(3) T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	142	p	-35000	65	79	56	20d	—	—	-4	7.4	2.50/1	11 9%
Started off okay for this yard, only to disappoint on his last three starts
7 (14)	El Jad Chestnut J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	137	v	862-04	60	71	53	9d	—	—	-5	5.4	2.50/1	11 9%
Fourth at Wolverhampton (8.6f) wasn't too shoddy but hasn't raced over 7f since debut
2 (6)	Late Arrival Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	142	—	0-3407	65	74	37	31d	—	—	-2	6.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Unlucky not to be closer at Pontefract last time (6f); C&D winner; well worth considering
1 (11)	Mercurius Power Bay J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Jessica Macey	J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Jessica Macey	142	tp	400600	65	76	53	29d	—	—	-3	6.3	2.25/1	10 10%
Fourth here in March on his first run after wind surgery but has struggled since
12 (8)	Howyoulikemenow Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:George Boughey	J:Jamie Spencer T:George Boughey	134	p	56666	63	73	56	30d	—	—	-2	5.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Early days and perhaps didn't take to Brighton last time
11 (3)	Billy Mcgarry Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:David C Griffiths	J:Lewis Edmunds T:David C Griffiths	135	v	159-44	58	71	-	27d	—	—	-1	3.2	4.25/1	18 6%
Two fair runs for this yard and his past AW defeats were in non handicaps
9 (4)	Star Map Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ed Dunlop	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ed Dunlop	136	—	628	65	68	-	16d	—	—	+5	8.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Perhaps on a fair mark if rediscovering the form of her best maiden effort
13 (1)	Mai Alward Grey J:Phil Dennis T:Tristan Davidson	J:Phil Dennis T:Tristan Davidson	131	p	31-870	60	68	-	17d	—	—	+1	3.2	9.75/1	40 3%
Very quiet in three handicaps (6f-7f) for this yard and cheekpieces are now added
4 (13)	Castleberg Rock Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Ray Craggs	J:Tom Eaves T:Ray Craggs	142	—	20-056	65	66	-	15d	—	—	+2	4.3	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Placed in his first two runs but few positives to take out of his three handicaps
8 (5)	Keep Me Stable Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Linda Perratt	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Linda Perratt	136	—	599-9	65	65	-	21d	—	—	+2	4.2	16.25/1	66 2%
Ex-Hannon; 80-1 and tailed off on handicap/stable debut at Carlisle

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
My Roxanne	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Go Sing	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Patontheback	7	7	7	15/2	7
Saisons Dor	15/2	7	7	15/2	15/2
Ibiza Rocks	8	8/1	8/1	8/1	11
El Jad	9	9/1	9/1	9/1	11
Late Arrival	8	9	17/2	17/2	17/2
Mercurius Power	10	9/1	17/2	9/1	17/2
Howyoulikemenow	9	10/1	10	10	9
Billy Mcgarry	16	18	18	18	16
Star Map	25	25/1	25	25	22
Mai Alward	40	33	33	33	33
Castleberg Rock	40	40	40/1	40	33
Keep Me Stable	66	50	50	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

My Roxanne

21.6

OR: 2 Form: 14.4 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

Saisons Dor

14.6

OR: 3.8 Form: 8 Odds: 2.9

15/2

3rd

Patontheback

8.6

OR: 3 Form: 2.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Star Map

8.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.9

25/1

Ibiza Rocks

7.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 0.6 Odds: 3.1

Mercurius Power

6.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

Late Arrival

6.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Go Sing

5.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

El Jad

5.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

Howyoulikemenow

5.4

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Castleberg Rock

4.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Keep Me Stable

4.2

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Billy Mcgarry

3.2

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Mai Alward

3.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Saisons Dor	65	74	61
Ibiza Rocks	65	79	56
Late Arrival	65	74	37
Mercurius Power	65	76	53
Star Map	65	68	—
Castleberg Rock	65	66	—
Keep Me Stable	65	65	—
Howyoulikemenow	63	73	56
Patontheback	62	74	50
El Jad	60	71	53
Mai Alward	60	68	—
Go Sing	59	72	—
My Roxanne	58	72	51
Billy Mcgarry	58	71	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
El Jad	9d ago	Quick return
Patontheback	13d ago	Quick return
Castleberg Rock	15d ago	Fit
Star Map	16d ago	Fit
My Roxanne	17d ago	Fit
Mai Alward	17d ago	Fit
Ibiza Rocks	20d ago	Fit
Keep Me Stable	21d ago	Fit
Saisons Dor	24d ago	Fit
Go Sing	27d ago	Fit
Billy Mcgarry	27d ago	Fit
Mercurius Power	29d ago	Fit
Howyoulikemenow	30d ago	Fit
Late Arrival	31d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.