Chelmer Mouldings Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

20:50

Chelmer Mouldings Handicap

Date 2023-08-08

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £4,004

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (2)	Edge Of Ember br/gr J:William Buick T:Richard Hughes	J:William Buick T:Richard Hughes	135	—	22226	75	84	55	46d	—	—	+4	19.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Runner-up first four starts before well held on handicap debut; wind surgery since
9 (3)	Yeoman Bay J:Rowan Scott T:James Fanshawe	J:Rowan Scott T:James Fanshawe	134	—	5-6151	74	85	73	50d	—	—	-5	10.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
2-3 since handicapping; shouldn't have an issue with the longer trip; a player
13 (6)	Fleur De Mer Grey J:Harry Davies(3) T:Hugo Palmer	J:Harry Davies(3) T:Hugo Palmer	129	—	8-38V1	69	87	77	14d	—	—	-6	9.2	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Off the mark on handicap/AW debut last time; should appreciate the longer trip; a player
12 (5)	Wadacre Gomez Bay J:Franny Norton T:Charlie Johnston	J:Franny Norton T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	2167V3	70	88	62	14d	—	—	0	14	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Newcastle winner in April and third on return to the AW over C&D last time; high on list
8 (8)	Forest Demon Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Jack Mitchell T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	135	p	-55532	75	82	45	22d	—	—	+6	16.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Kempton winner last year and has gone close on turf the last twice; respected
1 (1)	Blueflagflyinghigh Chestnut J:Callum Shepherd T:Michael Bell	J:Callum Shepherd T:Michael Bell	137	—	325147	77	89	26	17d	—	—	+8	14.5	2.50/1	11 9%
Ripon winner in June and twice ran well on the AW in January; could go well returned here
5 (7)	Mudskipper Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:David Menuisier	J:Kieran Shoemark T:David Menuisier	135	p	23-455	75	85	-	13d	—	—	+1	8.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Return to a longer trip looks a good move on pedigree; could go well with cheekpieces on
11 (10)	Born Ruler Bay J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	132	—	7-317	72	82	50	77d	—	—	+1	7.2	2.75/1	12 8%
Wolverhampton winner but off 11 weeks having been gelded since last seen; bit to prove
10 (9)	Run Simba Bay J:Neil Callan T:K R Burke	J:Neil Callan T:K R Burke	132	—	47-8	72	79	-	31d	—	—	0	7.7	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Improvement needed on handicap debut, but is a half-sister to a multiple AW winner
NR (12)	Beautifulasalways Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:George Boughey	J:NON-RUNNER T:George Boughey	136	t	3525	76	79	17	27d	—	—	-2	16.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Non-runner
7 (11)	Natzor Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	135	b	386238	75	86	64	22d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+8	12.1	6.00/1	25 4%
Placed in all three starts over 1m but well held in three over this far; blinkers on
3 (4)	Inanna Bay J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	136	h	-49555	76	88	36	24d	—	—	+4	7.4	6.00/1	25 4%
Unplaced in all five starts since returning in handicap company in April; plenty to prove
4 (13)	Speriamo Grey J:James Sullivan T:Philip Mcbride	J:James Sullivan T:Philip Mcbride	136	—	01-480	76	81	57	20d	—	—	+5	7.2	8.00/1	33 3%
Regressive since returning; stamina in her pedigree but has a wide draw to overcome

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Edge Of Ember	5	4	9/2	9/2	4
Yeoman	4	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Fleur De Mer	9/2	5	5	5/1	5/1
Wadacre Gomez	6	6	6	6/1	6
Forest Demon	17/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Blueflagflyinghigh	11	11	11	11	11
Mudskipper	11	11	10	11/1	12
Born Ruler	12	11	11	11	12
Run Simba	10	11	10	11/1	12
Beautifulasalways	20	20	SP	SP	SP
Natzor	25	20	20	20/1	18
Inanna	25	25	22	25	25
Speriamo	33	33	28	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Edge Of Ember

19.2

OR: 6.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

Forest Demon

16.2

OR: 6.3 Form: 7.1 Odds: 2.9

17/2

3rd

Beautifulasalways

16.2

OR: 6.5 Form: 4.4 Odds: 5.3

Blueflagflyinghigh

14.5

OR: 6.8 Form: 6 Odds: 1.7

Wadacre Gomez

OR: 5 Form: 5 Odds: 4

6/1

Natzor

12.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 4.6 Odds: 1.2

Yeoman

10.4

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Fleur De Mer

9.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Mudskipper

8.2

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

11/1

Run Simba

7.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Inanna

7.4

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Born Ruler

7.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Speriamo

7.2

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Blueflagflyinghigh	77	89	26
Beautifulasalways	76	79	17
Inanna	76	88	36
Speriamo	76	81	57
Edge Of Ember	75	84	55
Forest Demon	75	82	45
Mudskipper	75	85	—
Natzor	75	86	64
Yeoman	74	85	73
Born Ruler	72	82	50
Run Simba	72	79	—
Wadacre Gomez	70	88	62
Fleur De Mer	69	87	77

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mudskipper	13d ago	Quick return
Fleur De Mer	14d ago	Fit
Wadacre Gomez	14d ago	Fit
Blueflagflyinghigh	17d ago	Fit
Speriamo	20d ago	Fit
Forest Demon	22d ago	Fit
Natzor	22d ago	Fit
Inanna	24d ago	Fit
Beautifulasalways	27d ago	Fit
Run Simba	31d ago	Fit
Edge Of Ember	46d ago	Fresh
Yeoman	50d ago	Fresh
Born Ruler	77d ago	Fresh