Happy Birthday Ed Classified Stakes – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

20:20

Happy Birthday Ed Classified Stakes

Date 2023-08-08

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,004

Winning Time 1m 11.73s (slow by 1.23s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Nazca (GB) Callum Shepherd · Linda Perratt	22/1	Won
2nd	Thegreatestshowman (GB) Hollie Doyle · Amy Murphy	6/1	1
3rd	Q Twenty Boy (IRE) Robert Havlin · Mark Usher	100/30	0.05
4th	Gypsy Nation (IRE) Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	20/1	2.5
5th	Next Second (GB) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	12/1	0.3
6th	Struck Gold (IRE) Luke Morris · John Butler	7/2	.5
7th	Our Man In Havana (GB) Mollie Phillips · Tony Carroll	66/1	2.5
8th	Milvus (IRE) Ray Dawson · Denis Coakley	9/4F	1.75
9th	Universal Grace (GB) Neil Callan · Stuart Williams	14/1	.5
10th	Ellie Piper (GB) Josephine Gordon · Phil McEntee	66/1	8

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
NR (14)	Suanni Grey J:NON-RUNNER T:Darryll Holland	J:NON-RUNNER T:Darryll Holland	135	tb	607357	50	-	-	27d	—	—	-49	21.5	—	—
Non-runner
11 (1)	Milvus Bay J:Ray Dawson T:Denis Coakley	J:Ray Dawson T:Denis Coakley	131	v	-00745	50	61	45	19d	—	—	-19	8.4	0.50/1	2/1 33%
0-7, but the return to this trip should suit and he drops to this level for the first time
7 (6)	Q Twenty Boy Chestnut J:Robert Havlin T:Mark Usher	J:Robert Havlin T:Mark Usher	135	—	406546	50	65	55	24d	—	—	-14	5.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Looked to be on the way back on penultimate start; drops to this level for the first time
13 (9)	Struck Gold Bay J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	131	b	282327	50	63	53	5d	—	—	-7	11.9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Placed in four of last six starts (on Tapeta); chance if showing that form on Polytrack
9 (5)	Thegreatestshowman Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:Amy Murphy	J:Hollie Doyle T:Amy Murphy	135	tb	965489	49	64	33	43d	—	—	-9	3.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Losing run now up to 20, but is a C&D winner and this will be his first go at this level
NR (10)	Cappananty Con Grey J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Michael Attwater	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Michael Attwater	135	—	621888	47	59	52	20d	—	—	-3	6.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Nine AW wins including one over C&D, but successful in just one of his last 40 starts
NR (8)	My Kind Of Girl Bay J:Jason Watson T:Tony Carroll	J:Jason Watson T:Tony Carroll	131	—	958-07	48	57	46	14d	—	—	-7	2.9	3.25/1	14 7%
Has shown a little promise in two of her five starts at Wolverhampton; down in grade
NR (13)	Privilege Bay J:Stefano Cherchi T:Robert Cowell	J:Stefano Cherchi T:Robert Cowell	135	tp	-10879	47	61	53	7d	—	—	-4	4.3	3.75/1	16 6%
Won a similar contest over C&D in January, but it's been hard going since; drawn wide
4 (2)	Next Second Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	135	—	639002	47	62	52	14d	—	—	+1	7.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Back to form at Wolverhampton last time, but she hasn't shone over this far in the past
14 (12)	Universal Grace Bay J:Neil Callan T:Stuart Williams	J:Neil Callan T:Stuart Williams	131	p	56-839	49	57	40	20d	—	—	-3	1.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Ran well in cheekpieces at Yarmouth last month, but not so good next time; drawn wide
10 (3)	Gypsy Nation Grey J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	131	t	745598	43	55	39	20d	—	—	-3	1.1	6.00/1	25 4%
0-8; needs the return to the AW and big drop in trip to make a difference
3 (7)	Nazca Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Linda Perratt	J:Callum Shepherd T:Linda Perratt	135	—	9-8000	39	49	29	15d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
12-race maiden who has a lot to find down in trip, even in this company
5 (4)	Our Man In Havana Bay J:Mollie Phillips(3) T:Tony Carroll	J:Mollie Phillips(3) T:Tony Carroll	135	—	836906	44	55	36	34d	—	—	-1	1.2	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Solid chance on his form in the first half of last year, but has been quiet of late
2 (11)	Ellie Piper Bay J:Josephine Gordon T:Phil Mcentee	J:Josephine Gordon T:Phil Mcentee	135	h	586540	42	49	-	7d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
2-27 and more is needed from her wide draw, even at this level

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Suanni	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Milvus	2/1	2	2	2	2
Q Twenty Boy	3	10/3	3	10/3	3/1
Struck Gold	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Thegreatestshowman	5	11/2	6	11/2	6
Cappananty Con	14	14	14	14	14
My Kind Of Girl	14	14	11	14	14
Privilege	16	16	14	16	16
Next Second	14/1	14	14	14	14
Universal Grace	20	20	20	20	20
Gypsy Nation	25	22	25	25	25
Nazca	33/1	28	28	28	28
Our Man In Havana	50/1	40	40	40	40
Ellie Piper	50	66	50	50	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Suanni

21.5

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 20

—

2nd

Struck Gold

11.9

OR: 0 Form: 6.5 Odds: 5.4

7/2

3rd

Milvus

8.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

2/1

Next Second

7.2

OR: 0 Form: 5.6 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Cappananty Con

6.6

OR: 0 Form: 4 Odds: 2.6

Q Twenty Boy

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Privilege

4.3

OR: 0 Form: 2 Odds: 2.3

Thegreatestshowman

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

My Kind Of Girl

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

Universal Grace

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Our Man In Havana

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Gypsy Nation

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Nazca

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Ellie Piper

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Suanni	50	—	—
Milvus	50	61	45
Q Twenty Boy	50	65	55
Struck Gold	50	63	53
Thegreatestshowman	49	64	33
Universal Grace	49	57	40
My Kind Of Girl	48	57	46
Cappananty Con	47	59	52
Privilege	47	61	53
Next Second	47	62	52
Our Man In Havana	44	55	36
Gypsy Nation	43	55	39
Ellie Piper	42	49	—
Nazca	39	49	29

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Struck Gold	5d ago	Quick return
Privilege	7d ago	Quick return
Ellie Piper	7d ago	Quick return
My Kind Of Girl	14d ago	Fit
Next Second	14d ago	Fit
Nazca	15d ago	Fit
Milvus	19d ago	Fit
Cappananty Con	20d ago	Fit
Universal Grace	20d ago	Fit
Gypsy Nation	20d ago	Fit
Q Twenty Boy	24d ago	Fit
Suanni	27d ago	Fit
Our Man In Havana	34d ago	Fit
Thegreatestshowman	43d ago	Fit