Fred Says Don't Fall 80th Birthday Handicap – Carlisle

Carlisle

15:15

Fred Says Don't Fall 80th Birthday Handicap

Date 2023-08-23

Distance 5f182y

Class Class 5

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo

Prize £4,187

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (9)	Elusive Angel Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Harry Eustace	J:Ben Curtis T:Harry Eustace	133	—	232	73	87	52	32d	—	—	-3	23.4	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Promising 2nd in 6f Ripon novice latest; starts life in handicaps on a handy mark; player
3 (8)	Hougoumont Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	135	h	9-5479	75	83	57	14d	—	—	-4	10.3	1.00/1	5 20%
Had wind op before last at Pontefract latest (not the best of runs); worth another chance
11 (11)	Happier Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	128	p	621227	68	85	79	26d	—	—	+6	17.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
On the up in handicaps until coming in last of seven at Thirsk; worth another chance
10 (7)	B Associates Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	128	—	112199	68	86	69	25d	—	—	+5	16.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
C&D winner; not seen to best effect when ninth at York latest; the sort to bounce back
6 (6)	Mersea Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	133	—	93-045	73	85	67	18d	—	—	-3	9.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Only fifth at Doncaster latest; shouldn't be written off for her in-form yard
NR (4)	Hour By Hour Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	132	—	0-2384	72	86	71	33d	—	—	-1	8.2	2.25/1	10 10%
Fair 6f winner but he comes here on the back of two below-par efforts in 6f handicaps
12 (1)	Reginald Charles Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Bryan Smart	J:Cieren Fallon T:Bryan Smart	126	p	-77737	66	86	66	11d	—	—	0	8.3	2.25/1	10 10%
Still to get his head in front and he's been largely below par this term; has it to prove
1 (5)	Signora Camacho Bay J:Gianluca Sanna(7) T:John Quinn	J:Gianluca Sanna(7) T:John Quinn	137	—	230-66	77	86	45	18d	—	—	+3	8.4	3.25/1	14 7%
Had wind op and off for 3 months before beating only one at Doncaster latest
4 (2)	Creative Style Bay J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	135	b	4-1943	75	84	76	10d	—	—	+3	7.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Won at Wolverhampton; good 3rd at Leicester latest; shortlisted in a change of headgear
2 (3)	Naval Academy Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Mark Walford	J:Phil Dennis T:Mark Walford	137	t	-24310	77	79	65	20d	—	—	+14	17.1	6.75/1	28 4%
Fair ex-French 1m winner; well held for Kevin Ryan at Goodwood latest; more is required
8 (12)	Pocket The Packet Chestnut J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	131	h	094550	71	82	75	25d	—	—	+3	6.1	6.75/1	28 4%
All his five successes have come on AW and he came in well held in 7f York h'cap latest
9 (10)	Werenotreallyhere Bay J:Harry Russell T:John Quinn	J:Harry Russell T:John Quinn	128	p	615130	68	85	54	75d	—	—	+12	14.1	12.50/1	50/1 2%
A two-time 6f winner earlier this term but he beat only one in 6f Thirsk handicap in June

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Elusive Angel	9/4	9/4	17/8	9/4	2
Hougoumont	5	5	5	5	5
Happier	13/2	6	6	6	11/2
B Associates	15/2	13/2	7	7	7
Mersea	7	6	6	6	13/2
Hour By Hour	8	8	10	15/2	17/2
Reginald Charles	10	9	9	9	10
Signora Camacho	12	14	14	14	14
Creative Style	18	16	16	16	16
Naval Academy	25	28	28	28	28
Pocket The Packet	25	28	28	28	25
Werenotreallyhere	50	50	50	50	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Elusive Angel

23.4

OR: 5.8 Form: 9.6 Odds: 8

9/4

2nd

Happier

17.8

OR: 4.5 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

13/2

3rd

Naval Academy

17.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 9.5 Odds: 0.9

B Associates

16.1

OR: 4.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Werenotreallyhere

14.1

OR: 4.5 Form: 9.1 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Hougoumont

10.3

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4

Mersea

9.1

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Signora Camacho

8.4

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Reginald Charles

8.3

OR: 4 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.2

Hour By Hour

8.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

Creative Style

7.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Pocket The Packet

6.1

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Signora Camacho	77	86	45
Naval Academy	77	79	65
Hougoumont	75	83	57
Creative Style	75	84	76
Elusive Angel	73	87	52
Mersea	73	85	67
Hour By Hour	72	86	71
Pocket The Packet	71	82	75
Happier	68	85	79
B Associates	68	86	69
Werenotreallyhere	68	85	54
Reginald Charles	66	86	66

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Creative Style	10d ago	Quick return
Reginald Charles	11d ago	Quick return
Hougoumont	14d ago	Fit
Mersea	18d ago	Fit
Signora Camacho	18d ago	Fit
Naval Academy	20d ago	Fit
B Associates	25d ago	Fit
Pocket The Packet	25d ago	Fit
Happier	26d ago	Fit
Elusive Angel	32d ago	Fit
Hour By Hour	33d ago	Fit
Werenotreallyhere	75d ago	Fresh