Northumbrian Water & Wateraid Partners Since 1981 Handicap

Newcastle (AW)

18:10

Date 2023-09-08

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,245

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (3)	Royal Prospect Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Lawrence Mullaney	J:Sean Kirrane T:Lawrence Mullaney	133	t	-64850	53	73	32	1d	—	—	-15	7.4	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Down in weights and caught eye over C&D latest; unplaced 6.35 Carlisle Thursday
NR (5)	Mr Heinz Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Simon Whitaker	J:NON-RUNNER T:Simon Whitaker	126	b	632369	46	67	-	11d	—	—	-28	20	1.50/1	7 14%
Better than result over 1m2f latest and return to 1m a help; capable of going well
1 (13)	Mr Strutter Chestnut J:Andrew Elliott T:David Thompson	J:Andrew Elliott T:David Thompson	135	—	475126	55	72	36	18d	—	—	0	13.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
C&D winner this summer; shaped as if still in form when sixth of 15 at Catterick latest
3 (1)	Global Tycoon Grey J:Harry Burns(3) T:Joseph Parr	J:Harry Burns(3) T:Joseph Parr	132	b	-78233	52	67	41	25d	—	—	0	11.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Placed over 7f here for John Butler in June; sound start for new yard when third on turf
6 (4)	Explorers Way Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	130	p	889596	50	73	32	9d	—	—	-9	3.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Finally signs he can make an impact from falling mark at Musselburgh last week
9 (6)	Copper Mountain Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	129	tv	006985	49	65	48	9d	—	—	-6	2.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Well treated and slightly better signs last time; has won on Tapeta
4 (2)	Rumnotred Bay J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Stella Barclay	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Stella Barclay	131	—	560487	51	66	57	36d	—	—	-7	3.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Regressive maiden and likely the wait for first win will go on
5 (9)	Rum Runner Bay J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	131	—	922215	51	65	-	23d	—	—	+7	14.2	2.75/1	12 8%
Arrives in form from turf and is a former C&D winner; considered
7 (8)	Tees George Bay J:Barry McHugh T:Adrian Nicholls	J:Barry McHugh T:Adrian Nicholls	130	—	703040	55	70	25	36d	—	—	-2	3.8	3.75/1	16 6%
Always in rear over 6f here latest and remains to be seen if 2f longer trip suits
12 (14)	Naadyaa Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Joseph Parr	J:Ben Curtis T:Joseph Parr	127	t	432464	47	65	-	23d	—	—	-2	3.8	3.75/1	16 6%
Placed in classified events on turf this summer but well held fourth latest and now 0-23
11 (12)	The Grey Bandit Grey J:Jonathan Fisher(5) T:John Stimpson	J:Jonathan Fisher(5) T:John Stimpson	128	—	6/7936	48	64	30	15d	—	—	-4	1.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Third in 1m Bath classified stakes last month but only fifth on AW since
8 (10)	Aljardaa Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Patrick Morris	J:Cam Hardie T:Patrick Morris	130	—	/68489	50	67	42	36d	—	—	-1	0.5	12.25/1	50 2%
Fourth on 1m2f course handicap debut but well beaten twice since; back down in trip
14 (11)	Wolf Of Kingstreet Bay J:Graham Lee T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Graham Lee T:Rebecca Menzies	121	p	-74086	46	67	46	20d	—	—	-2	0.8	6.75/1	28 4%
Minor pomise on AW for Hugo Palmer but tailed off in handicaps for other yards since
10 (7)	Big Muddy Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Suzzanne France	J:Faye McManoman T:Suzzanne France	129	—	R64R-0	49	67	-	79d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
0-13; twice refused to race last year and tailed off on course return for new yard

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Royal Prospect	3	11/4	10/3	11/4	5/2
Mr Heinz	7	SP	SP	SP	SP
Mr Strutter	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Global Tycoon	11/2	6	6	11/2	11/2
Explorers Way	6	11/2	6	5	11/2
Copper Mountain	9	9	17/2	9	9
Rumnotred	8	8	8	8	17/2
Rum Runner	10	12	11	12	12
Tees George	16	16	14	16	16
Naadyaa	16	11	12	12	12
The Grey Bandit	16	18	16	16	18
Aljardaa	50	50	50	50	50
Wolf Of Kingstreet	25	28	28	28	28
Big Muddy	100	100	50	80	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mr Heinz

OR: 0 Form: 3.6 Odds: 16.4

2nd

Rum Runner

14.2

OR: 0.3 Form: 12 Odds: 1.9

3rd

Mr Strutter

13.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 4

9/2

Global Tycoon

11.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 7.6 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Royal Prospect

7.4

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

10/3

Tees George

3.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.6

Naadyaa

3.8

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.7

Explorers Way

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Rumnotred

3.1

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

17/2

Copper Mountain

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

17/2

The Grey Bandit

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Wolf Of Kingstreet

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Aljardaa

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Big Muddy

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mr Strutter	55	72	36
Tees George	55	70	25
Royal Prospect	53	73	32
Global Tycoon	52	67	41
Rumnotred	51	66	57
Rum Runner	51	65	—
Explorers Way	50	73	32
Aljardaa	50	67	42
Copper Mountain	49	65	48
Big Muddy	49	67	—
The Grey Bandit	48	64	30
Naadyaa	47	65	—
Mr Heinz	46	67	—
Wolf Of Kingstreet	46	67	46

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Royal Prospect	1d ago	Quick return
Explorers Way	9d ago	Quick return
Copper Mountain	9d ago	Quick return
Mr Heinz	11d ago	Quick return
The Grey Bandit	15d ago	Fit
Mr Strutter	18d ago	Fit
Wolf Of Kingstreet	20d ago	Fit
Rum Runner	23d ago	Fit
Naadyaa	23d ago	Fit
Global Tycoon	25d ago	Fit
Rumnotred	36d ago	Fit
Tees George	36d ago	Fit
Aljardaa	36d ago	Fit
Big Muddy	79d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.