Mott MacDonald Bentley Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

14:45

Mott MacDonald Bentley Handicap

Date 2023-09-08

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,873

Winning Time 2m 15.76s (slow by 9.26s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Fleur De Mer (IRE) Jason Hart · Hugo Palmer	15/8F	Won
2nd	Irish Flame (GB) Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	28/1	1.5
3rd	Barrolo (GB) Sam James · Grant Tuer	9/4	0.1
4th	Elshaameq (GB) Ben Robinson · Kevin Frost	11/1	0.1
5th	Mercurius Power (IRE) Ben Sanderson · Jessica Macey	28/1	0.3
6th	Western Beat (IRE) Joanna Mason · Michael & David Easterby	13/2	0.1
7th	Danielsflyer (IRE) Sean Kirrane · David Thompson	50/1	0.05
8th	Don't Look Back (GB) Ryan Sexton · Lucinda Russell	20/1	0.3
9th	Glory Nights (IRE) Mark Winn · Mark Loughnane	40/1	0.05
10th	Queen Of Sparta (USA) Cieren Fallon · George Boughey	17/2	4.25
11th	Sagauteur (FR) Alistair Rawlinson · Rebecca Menzies	16/1	4.25
12th	Buckshaw Village (FR) Zak Wheatley · Declan Carroll	33/1	5

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (5)	Fleur De Mer Grey J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	136	—	-38V12	70	79	64	31d	—	—	-2	26.5	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Good start to handicap career on AW and likely has more to offer; major player
10 (10)	Barrolo Grey J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	134	—	-11211	68	75	-	20d	—	—	+12	36.3	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Made it 4-5 in turf handicaps at Newmarket (1m2f) 20 days ago; big player if as good on AW
11 (8)	Western Beat Chestnut J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	134	v	973422	62	77	60	12d	—	—	+5	15.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
C&D winner who has run with credit when reaching the frame on her last four outings
13 (13)	Queen Of Sparta Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:George Boughey	J:Cieren Fallon T:George Boughey	129	—	549	63	71	30	39d	—	—	-4	6.1	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Handicap newcomer for a good stable; draw not ideal but still a very interesting runner
6 (6)	Elshaameq Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Kevin Frost	J:Ben Robinson T:Kevin Frost	138	t	2-0045	66	77	49	64d	—	—	+2	9.6	2.25/1	10 10%
Never-dangerous fifth on turf latest but best form on AW, including a C&D second
3 (2)	Sagauteur Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Rebecca Menzies	142	t	57-356	70	79	44	43d	—	—	+2	6.2	3.75/1	16 6%
Placed over C&D on yard debut; possible excuse latest and is feasibly handicapped
5 (11)	Dont Look Back Grey J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Lucinda Russell	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Lucinda Russell	139	—	152763	67	77	-	40d	—	—	+6	9.8	4.75/1	20 5%
1-18 overall and no more than respectable third at Pontefract latest
4 (3)	Buckshaw Village Chestnut J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	140	—	-94670	68	72	53	62d	—	—	+1	5.9	6.00/1	25 4%
Lost way for Richard Fahey and remains to be seen if big step up in trip sparks revival
7 (7)	Danielsflyer Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	138	—	-17045	66	77	48	23d	—	—	+4	6.8	8.00/1	33 3%
All wins at 1m or shorter but penultimate C&D fourth shows this 9yo stays 1m2f
1 (1)	Irish Flame Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	144	p	1-5586	72	78	62	39d	—	—	+11	13.2	8.00/1	33 3%
Well held in turf handicaps last twice but seems better on AW
9 (9)	Mercurius Power Bay J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:Jessica Macey	J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:Jessica Macey	135	t	060038	63	77	62	21d	—	—	+4	5.9	9.75/1	40 3%
Third over 7f here last month but inconsistent and held on turf since; stamina to prove
2 (12)	Glory Nights Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:Mark Loughnane	J:Mark Winn(3) T:Mark Loughnane	144	—	42-780	72	73	54	29d	—	—	+4	6	12.25/1	50 2%
Well held in two handicaps on turf but did show ability in AW novices prior to that
12 (4)	Cusack Bay J:Phil Dennis T:David Thompson	J:Phil Dennis T:David Thompson	132	p	165837	60	75	45	62d	—	—	+3	5.1	16.25/1	66 2%
Below par on turf two months ago but has saved a lot of his best efforts for this C&D

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Fleur De Mer	15/8	15/8	15/8	15/8	15/8
Barrolo	5/2	9/4	5/2	5/2	9/4
Western Beat	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	8
Queen Of Sparta	7	8	8/1	8/1	8
Elshaameq	10	10	10	10	10
Sagauteur	16	16	16	16	16
Dont Look Back	20	20	20	20	20
Buckshaw Village	20	22	25	22	22
Danielsflyer	28	33	28	28	28
Irish Flame	33	33	33	33	33
Mercurius Power	40	40	40	40	40
Glory Nights	50	50	50	50	50
Cusack	66	50	40	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Barrolo

36.3

OR: 4.5 Form: 24.5 Odds: 7.3

5/2

2nd

Fleur De Mer

26.5

OR: 5 Form: 12.6 Odds: 8.9

15/8

3rd

Western Beat

15.3

OR: 3 Form: 9.4 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Irish Flame

13.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 7 Odds: 0.7

Dont Look Back

9.8

OR: 4.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.1

Elshaameq

9.6

OR: 4 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.1

Danielsflyer

6.8

OR: 4 Form: 2 Odds: 0.8

Sagauteur

6.2

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Queen Of Sparta

6.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Glory Nights

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Buckshaw Village

5.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Mercurius Power

5.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.6

Cusack

5.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Irish Flame	72	78	62
Glory Nights	72	73	54
Fleur De Mer	70	79	64
Sagauteur	70	79	44
Barrolo	68	75	—
Buckshaw Village	68	72	53
Dont Look Back	67	77	—
Elshaameq	66	77	49
Danielsflyer	66	77	48
Queen Of Sparta	63	71	30
Mercurius Power	63	77	62
Western Beat	62	77	60
Cusack	60	75	45

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Western Beat	12d ago	Quick return
Barrolo	20d ago	Fit
Mercurius Power	21d ago	Fit
Danielsflyer	23d ago	Fit
Glory Nights	29d ago	Fit
Fleur De Mer	31d ago	Fit
Queen Of Sparta	39d ago	Fit
Irish Flame	39d ago	Fit
Dont Look Back	40d ago	Fit
Sagauteur	43d ago	Fit
Buckshaw Village	62d ago	Fresh
Cusack	62d ago	Fresh
Elshaameq	64d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m2f42y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.