Quinnbet Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:00

Quinnbet Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-09-11

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,245

Winning Time 1m 12.87s (slow by 2.47s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Nazca (GB) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	9/2F	Won
2nd	Congress (GB) Jonny Peate · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	20/1	.5
3rd	Noble Captain (GB) Jason Hart · Katie Scott	11/2	0.05
4th	Eyes (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Jessica Macey	9/1	0.3
5th	Lupset Flossy Pop (IRE) Rowan Scott · Phillip Makin	6/1	0.2
6th	Captain Dandy (IRE) Jack Garritty · Richard Fahey	11/2	1.5
7th	Doon The Glen (GB) William Pyle · Jim Goldie	15/2	0.2
8th	Tathmeen (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	20/1	.75
9th	Churchill Bay (GB) Tom Eaves · Ronald Thompson	20/1	2.75
10th	Deputise (GB) David Allan · Michael Wigham	7/1	.5
11th	Zegos Surprise (IRE) P J McDonald · Paul Collins	16/1	0.3
12th	The White Elephant (GB) Amie Waugh · Simon Waugh	100/1	.5

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (7)	Nazca Bay J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	135	—	800011	54	65	57	24d	—	—	+5	23.2	1.00/1	5 20%
2-2 over sprint trips, both last month, and this bang-in-form 4yo has to be respected
7 (2)	Noble Captain Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Katie Scott	J:Jason Hart T:Katie Scott	132	t	484253	53	65	59	14d	—	—	-9	12.9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
3yo; running well in defeat in 6f Tapeta handicaps and every chance he'll be thereabouts
8 (13)	Captain Dandy Bay J:Jack Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Jack Garritty T:Richard Fahey	130	—	761526	51	64	56	56d	—	—	-4	11.2	1.25/1	6 17%
Gelded since last run in July and a case can be made on this year's best efforts
4 (11)	Deputise Bay J:David Allan T:Michael Wigham	J:David Allan T:Michael Wigham	133	—	096917	52	66	54	11d	—	—	0	10.6	1.75/1	8 13%
Won at Southwell last month and may not have been suited by the return to turf last time
6 (5)	Lupset Flossy Pop Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	132	—	600753	53	67	53	14d	—	—	-7	8.2	1.88/1	15/2 12%
C&D winner who has posted promising performances the last twice and could be in the mix
9 (4)	Eyes Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	128	b	426435	47	65	48	33d	—	—	-2	5	2.75/1	12 8%
Poor strike-rate but has run some bright races this term (including here); each-way claims
3 (14)	Tathmeen Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	133	p	636950	52	63	65	14d	—	—	-3	2.8	3.75/1	16 6%
Not at top of his game on last few starts but this 7-time course winner is on a handy mark
13 (12)	Doon The Glen Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Jim Goldie	J:William Pyle(5) T:Jim Goldie	125	v	654750	46	62	-	4d	—	—	-5	1.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Half-brother to two winners for the yard but hard to fancy on what he's shown so far
5 (6)	Congress Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	132	p	079718	53	65	51	14d	—	—	+4	9.1	4.75/1	20 5%
Won at Southwell two starts ago; lesser run there last time but was trapped wide
10 (1)	Lancashire Life Bay J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Stella Barclay	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Stella Barclay	127	—	783245	46	66	60	10d	—	—	0	4.8	4.75/1	20 5%
Course winner; place possibilities but has a poor 1-33 strike-rate
2 (3)	Churchill Bay Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Ronald Thompson	J:Tom Eaves T:Ronald Thompson	135	t	609080	54	56	38	39d	—	—	-2	2	6.00/1	25 4%
Close third over C&D in March when fully 16lb higher; however, he's struggled since
11 (10)	Zegos Surprise Grey J:P J McDonald T:Paul Collins	J:P J McDonald T:Paul Collins	126	—	479526	45	62	43	42d	—	—	+1	4.6	6.75/1	28 4%
Patchy turf form this summer but return to this course for stable debut could be a plus
NR (8)	Fighting Chance Chestnut J:Molly Gunn(7) T:Simon West	J:Molly Gunn(7) T:Simon West	126	p	090787	45	52	-	6d	—	—	-3	1	16.25/1	66 2%
16-race maiden who possesses very little worthwhile form
14 (9)	The White Elephant Bay J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Simon Waugh	J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Simon Waugh	124	—	89-030	45	54	38	162d	—	—	-3	1	16.25/1	66 2%
Makes stable debut after time off; not a forlorn hope judged on penultimate effort

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Nazca	5	10/3	10/3	7/2	10/3
Noble Captain	4	7/2	4	7/2	7/2
Captain Dandy	5	5	6	5	5
Deputise	8	7	13/2	13/2	6
Lupset Flossy Pop	4	8	15/2	7	7
Eyes	12	10	11	11	10
Tathmeen	16	12	11	14	12
Doon The Glen	12	14	14	12	12
Congress	14	20	20	18	18
Lancashire Life	20	20	16	14	18
Churchill Bay	25	22	25	25	25
Zegos Surprise	20	28	28	28	28
Fighting Chance	66	66	40	50	50
The White Elephant	33	66	40	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Nazca

23.2

OR: 1 Form: 17 Odds: 5.2

2nd

Noble Captain

12.9

OR: 0.8 Form: 5.5 Odds: 6.7

7/2

3rd

Captain Dandy

11.2

OR: 0.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4.4

Deputise

10.6

OR: 0.5 Form: 7 Odds: 3.1

Congress

9.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 7 Odds: 1.4

Lupset Flossy Pop

8.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

15/2

Eyes

OR: 0 Form: 3.1 Odds: 1.9

Lancashire Life

4.8

OR: 0 Form: 3.4 Odds: 1.4

Zegos Surprise

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.1

Tathmeen

2.8

OR: 0.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.7

Churchill Bay

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Doon The Glen

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Fighting Chance

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

The White Elephant

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Nazca	54	65	57
Churchill Bay	54	56	38
Noble Captain	53	65	59
Lupset Flossy Pop	53	67	53
Congress	53	65	51
Deputise	52	66	54
Tathmeen	52	63	65
Captain Dandy	51	64	56
Eyes	47	65	48
Doon The Glen	46	62	—
Lancashire Life	46	66	60
Zegos Surprise	45	62	43
Fighting Chance	45	52	—
The White Elephant	45	54	38

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Doon The Glen	4d ago	Quick return
Fighting Chance	6d ago	Quick return
Lancashire Life	10d ago	Quick return
Deputise	11d ago	Quick return
Noble Captain	14d ago	Fit
Lupset Flossy Pop	14d ago	Fit
Tathmeen	14d ago	Fit
Congress	14d ago	Fit
Nazca	24d ago	Fit
Eyes	33d ago	Fit
Churchill Bay	39d ago	Fit
Zegos Surprise	42d ago	Fit
Captain Dandy	56d ago	Fresh
The White Elephant	162d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.