Dubai Duty Free Handicap – Newbury

Newbury

14:40

Dubai Duty Free Handicap

Date 2023-09-23

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 2

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £38,655

Winning Time 2m 13.04s (slow by 8.74s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Balance Play (IRE) Hector Crouch · Ralph Beckett	3/1J	Won
2nd	Totnes (IRE) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	11/2	1.75
3rd	Toshizou (IRE) Callum Shepherd · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	11/1	0.3
4th	Mustazeed (IRE) Kaiya Fraser · Harry Eustace	3/1J	.5
5th	Certain Lad (GB) George Bass · Jack Channon	10/1	0.05
6th	Millebosc (FR) James Doyle · William Haggas	11/2	2.25
7th	Le Mans (IRE) Sam Hitchcott · Richard Hannon	14/1	10
8th	Gaassee (IRE) Tom Marquand · William Haggas	8/1	4

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (3)	Balance Play Chestnut J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	127	—	-23110	95	112	81	29d	—	—	+11	30.9	0.83/1	10/3 23%
No-show as favourite over 1m4f at York in hat-trick bid latest; plenty to like before that
5 (5)	Mustazeed Brown J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Harry Eustace	J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Harry Eustace	125	—	92-117	88	113	100	77d	—	—	-3	14.5	0.75/1	4 25%
Two wins from off the pace in large-field 1m2f handicaps here this spring; one run since
7 (1)	Totnes Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	122	—	143311	90	109	83	44d	—	—	+18	33.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Up another 8lb but a rising force who has to be in serious calculations in hat-trick bid
2 (2)	Gaassee Bay J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	135	t	-70446	98	111	78	21d	—	—	+5	14.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Never dangerous when dropped back to 1m2f for latest outing, albeit slowly away
3 (4)	Millebosc Bay J:James Doyle T:William Haggas	J:James Doyle T:William Haggas	129	—	75-790	92	109	94	7d	—	—	+2	13.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Initial encouragement for new yard led only to backward steps on last two outings
1 (8)	Certain Lad Bay J:George Bass(3) T:Jack Channon	J:George Bass(3) T:Jack Channon	138	—	730062	101	110	106	21d	—	—	+13	20.5	2.25/1	10 10%
None too consistent nowadays and has not won for three years but 2nd at Sandown last time
8 (6)	Le Mans Bay J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	116	—	121	84	109	82	16d	—	—	+21	29.2	2.50/1	11 9%
Won two of three starts, latest a 1m2f handicap; 6lb higher but surely has more to give
6 (7)	Toshizou Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Callum Shepherd T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	123	—	348470	86	111	92	29d	—	—	+4	10.9	2.75/1	12 8%
1m4f on last two starts; competitive mark if back to best 2023 form; probably acts on soft

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Balance Play	10/3	10/3	10/3	3	10/3
Mustazeed	4	4	4	4	4
Totnes	4	4	4	4	9/2
Gaassee	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	7
Millebosc	13/2	7	6	6	6
Certain Lad	10	10	9	10	9
Le Mans	11	9	10	9	10
Toshizou	12	11	11	11	11

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Totnes

33.8

OR: 10 Form: 19.4 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

Balance Play

30.9

OR: 11.3 Form: 13.9 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Le Mans

29.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 18.5 Odds: 2.2

Certain Lad

20.5

OR: 12.8 Form: 5.6 Odds: 2.1

Gaassee

14.9

OR: 12 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Mustazeed

14.5

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

Millebosc

13.8

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Toshizou

10.9

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Certain Lad	101	110	106
Gaassee	98	111	78
Balance Play	95	112	81
Millebosc	92	109	94
Totnes	90	109	83
Mustazeed	88	113	100
Toshizou	86	111	92
Le Mans	84	109	82

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Millebosc	7d ago	Quick return
Le Mans	16d ago	Fit
Gaassee	21d ago	Fit
Certain Lad	21d ago	Fit
Balance Play	29d ago	Fit
Toshizou	29d ago	Fit
Totnes	44d ago	Fit
Mustazeed	77d ago	Fresh