Joan Squire 80th Birthday Celebration Fillies' Nursery Handicap

Leicester

14:40

Date 2023-09-25

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 2yo

Prize £4,187

Winning Time 1m 12.37s (slow by 2.87s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Cypriot Diaspora (GB) P J McDonald · Rod Millman	7/1	Won
2nd	Happy Tears (IRE) Kieran Shoemark · George Boughey	11/1	0.3
3rd	Without Flaw (IRE) Taylor Fisher · Archie Watson	5/1	2.5
4th	Marie's Secret (GB) Connor Murtagh · Adrian Nicholls	4/1F	.5
5th	Mariamne (GB) Daniel Muscutt · James Ferguson	10/1	1
6th	Unico (GB) Christian Howarth · Marco Botti	8/1	1.25
7th	Line Of Fire (GB) Tom Marquand · Rod Millman	11/2	1.25
8th	Crocus Time (IRE) Sean Levey · Richard Hannon	5/1	0.3
9th	Meganissi (GB) George Rooke · Richard Hughes	25/1	1.75
10th	Haumea (IRE) Luke Morris · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	20/1	5.5
11th	Timely Chance (GB) Trevor Whelan · Steph Hollinshead	33/1	.5

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (11)	Crocus Time Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	136	—	333347	71	78	67	18d	—	—	-3	12.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Handicapper on top so far but this is a drop in grade; not discounted
11 (2)	Line Of Fire Grey J:Tom Marquand T:Rod Millman	J:Tom Marquand T:Rod Millman	127	b	774521	62	76	74	14d	—	—	+4	21.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Blinkers worked a treat at Brighton two weeks ago; this is tougher & others look stronger
10 (8)	Maries Secret Bay J:Connor Murtagh T:Adrian Nicholls	J:Connor Murtagh T:Adrian Nicholls	128	p	53832	63	78	62	7d	—	—	+1	15.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Two good nursery runs and won't need much improvement for the headgear to feature
1 (1)	Mariamne Grey J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	137	t	120424	72	75	60	24d	—	—	+3	12.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
5f AW winner; creditable efforts since handicapping but slow ground poses a new question
6 (4)	Without Flaw Bay J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	134	—	744152	69	77	59	21d	—	—	+8	17.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
6f winner (soft) at Ffos Las in July; good second latest; one to take seriously
9 (3)	Cypriot Diaspora Bay J:P J McDonald T:Rod Millman	J:P J McDonald T:Rod Millman	128	—	5646	63	74	60	28d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-4	6.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Suffered a torrid passage on nursery debut (well backed) and she's capable of better
4 (5)	Unico Grey J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Marco Botti	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Marco Botti	136	—	61	71	48	39	23d	—	—	+9	17.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Stepped up on her debut by winning on AW this month (6f); yard going well; more to come
3 (6)	Happy Tears Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:George Boughey	J:Kieran Shoemark T:George Boughey	136	b	44533	71	76	53	21d	—	—	+5	12.3	2.50/1	11 9%
Third in two nursery runs; unexposed over 6f; promise on soft; new headgear tried today
7 (7)	Haumea Brown J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	132	—	576	67	67	29	45d	—	—	+1	5.5	5.25/1	22 5%
Promise over 5f in three maiden/novice runs; likely improver upped to 6f
2 (10)	Meganissi Bay J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	137	—	945	72	73	56	19d	—	—	+3	6.5	6.00/1	25 4%
Promise in three qualifying runs; looks a likely improver now handicapping at modest level
8 (9)	Timely Chance Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Steph Hollinshead	J:Trevor Whelan T:Steph Hollinshead	128	—	095	63	66	59	45d	—	—	+2	3.7	19.75/1	80 1%
Offered more on 3rd start but needs further progress to defy tough-looking opening mark

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Crocus Time	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Line Of Fire	4	4	4	4	9/2
Maries Secret	5	5	11/2	5	9/2
Mariamne	15/2	15/2	7	15/2	15/2
Without Flaw	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Cypriot Diaspora	13/2	7	15/2	7	7
Unico	8	8	17/2	8	8
Happy Tears	11	10	11	10	10
Haumea	20	20	22	22	22
Meganissi	20	22	22	22	25
Timely Chance	80	66	66	66	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Line Of Fire

21.5

OR: 3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Unico

17.8

OR: 5.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.5

17/2

3rd

Without Flaw

17.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 10 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Maries Secret

15.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 8 Odds: 4

11/2

Mariamne

12.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Crocus Time

12.7

OR: 5.3 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Happy Tears

12.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1.9

Meganissi

6.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Cypriot Diaspora

6.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Haumea

5.5

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Timely Chance

3.7

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mariamne	72	75	60
Meganissi	72	73	56
Crocus Time	71	78	67
Unico	71	48	39
Happy Tears	71	76	53
Without Flaw	69	77	59
Haumea	67	67	29
Maries Secret	63	78	62
Cypriot Diaspora	63	74	60
Timely Chance	63	66	59
Line Of Fire	62	76	74

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Maries Secret	7d ago	Quick return
Line Of Fire	14d ago	Fit
Crocus Time	18d ago	Fit
Meganissi	19d ago	Fit
Without Flaw	21d ago	Fit
Happy Tears	21d ago	Fit
Unico	23d ago	Fit
Mariamne	24d ago	Fit
Cypriot Diaspora	28d ago	Fit
Haumea	45d ago	Fit
Timely Chance	45d ago	Fit

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Cypriot Diaspora	Prominent
Unico	Mid-Pack

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 11 runners classified.