Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap

Ayr

2:47

Date 2023-10-03

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 4

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,234

Runners (8)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
8 (1)	Star Start b J:William Pyle(5) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:William Pyle(5) T:Rebecca Menzies	118	v	223121	62	87	82	7d	—	—	+5	31.4	2 50%
Consistent this term; avoids a penalty for last week's Class 6 win at Beverley
2 (5)	Stressfree ch J:Jason Watson T:David Omeara	J:Jason Watson T:David Omeara	137	—	2174	81	84	65	14d	—	—	+3	18.7	9/2 18%
Soft-ground winner in France; not beaten far on British debut; still unexposed
7 (2)	Ayr Poet b J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	128	p	113213	68	86	78	8d	—	—	+11	23.2	11/2 15%
Successful three times at Ayr during this consistent 2023 season; solid claims
4 (8)	Tilsitt b J:P J McDonald T:R Mike Smith	J:P J McDonald T:R Mike Smith	134	tp	302445	74	89	78	10d	—	—	0	10.6	13/2 13%
Has a fighting chance, having finished second off 7lb higher in this race last year
1 (7)	Hartswood b J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	139	—	142365	79	87	80	20d	—	—	+3	13.1	15/2 12%
Questionable whether he can defy top weight over this trip on forecast slow ground
6 (4)	Glasses Up ch J:Ben Curtis T:R Mike Smith	J:Ben Curtis T:R Mike Smith	130	p	312467	70	84	78	10d	—	—	+3	10.7	17/2 11%
Multiple winner at Ayr, though has a modest strike-rate in last three years
3 (3)	Bashful b J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	137	tp	111304	77	86	73	17d	—	—	+8	15.2	11 9%
Had a long spell of consistent form; last two efforts represent a dip
5 (6)	Montevideo b J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	5-4362	74	86	74	17d	—	—	+3	7.2	20 5%
Switch to handicap level may suit but it's not totally clear whether she's well treated

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Star Start	2	2	2	2	2
Stressfree	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Ayr Poet	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Tilsitt	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Hartswood	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Glasses Up	9	17/2	17/2	17/2	9
Bashful	11	10	10	10	10
Montevideo	20	16	16	16	16

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Star Start

31.4

OR: 3 Form: 20.4 Odds: 8

2nd

Ayr Poet

23.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 15.4 Odds: 3.3

11/2

3rd

Stressfree

18.7

OR: 7.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Bashful

15.2

OR: 6.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 1.9

Hartswood

13.1

OR: 7.3 Form: 3 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Glasses Up

10.7

OR: 5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.2

17/2

Tilsitt

10.6

OR: 6 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Montevideo

7.2

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Stressfree Top Rated	81	84	65
Hartswood	79	87	80
Bashful	77	86	73
Tilsitt	74	89	78
Montevideo	74	86	74
Glasses Up	70	84	78
Ayr Poet	68	86	78
Star Start	62	87	82

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Star Start	7d ago	Quick return
Ayr Poet	8d ago	Quick return
Tilsitt	10d ago	Quick return
Glasses Up	10d ago	Quick return
Stressfree	14d ago	Fit
Bashful	17d ago	Fit
Montevideo	17d ago	Fit
Hartswood	20d ago	Fit