At The Races App Market Movers Nursery Handicap – Lingfield (AW)

Lingfield (AW)

15:15

At The Races App Market Movers Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-10-05

Distance 7f1y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,873

Winning Time 1m 24.47s (slow by 2.47s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Master Franca (IRE) David Probert · Hugo Palmer	40/1	Won
2nd	John Steed (IRE) Laura Pearson · David Loughnane	33/1	.5
3rd	Enpassant (IRE) Callum Shepherd · James Fanshawe	8/1	0.3
4th	Tropical Air (IRE) Jack Mitchell · Charlie Johnston	15/8F	.5
5th	Cuban Harry (GB) Neil Callan · Ed Dunlop	17/2	.5
6th	Mitwaa (IRE) Jim Crowley · Roger Varian	11/4	0.05
6th	Alnoory Star (IRE) Ethan Jones · Richard Hughes	80/1	0
8th	Bulldog Drummond (GB) William Buick · George Boughey	4/1	1.25
9th	She Wore No Jewels (IRE) Luke Morris · Clive Cox	40/1	2.5
10th	Timebar (GB) Alec Voikhansky · Richard Hannon	20/1	1
11th	Meet Me In Meraki (GB) Darragh Keenan · David Evans	100/1	1
12th	Guns And Flowers (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Alice Haynes	22/1	.75

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (6)	Tropical Air Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	135	—	533111	70	81	68	3d	—	—	+10	36.5	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Has won his last three; penalties are mounting up but he's clearly thriving; respected
5 (11)	Mitwaa Bay J:Jim Crowley T:Roger Varian	J:Jim Crowley T:Roger Varian	134	—	58722	69	76	-	20d	—	—	-1	19	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Runner-up in his first two nurseries and the latest form has been franked; major player
10 (4)	Bulldog Drummond Bay J:William Buick T:George Boughey	J:William Buick T:George Boughey	132	p	93342	67	80	68	10d	—	—	-2	17.4	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Went close behind Tropical Air at Wolverhampton and he's 12lb better off this afternoon
8 (1)	Enpassant Chestnut J:Callum Shepherd T:James Fanshawe	J:Callum Shepherd T:James Fanshawe	133	—	0393	68	74	-	20d	—	—	+3	11.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Encouraging third on nursery debut at Salisbury and he's bred to do better still; chance
4 (10)	Cuban Harry Bay J:Neil Callan T:Ed Dunlop	J:Neil Callan T:Ed Dunlop	134	b	644	69	79	-	14d	—	—	-1	7	2.25/1	10 10%
Nursery newcomer who could have more to offer now back up in trip in first-time blinkers
2 (5)	Guns And Flowers Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Alice Haynes	J:Hollie Doyle T:Alice Haynes	135	p	413246	70	78	58	20d	—	—	+7	11.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Polytrack winner who may not have been suited by good/good to firm ground the last twice
9 (12)	Timebar Bay J:Alec Voikhansky(5) T:Richard Hannon	J:Alec Voikhansky(5) T:Richard Hannon	132	—	885	67	73	-	13d	—	—	+1	5.5	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Not obviously well treated but useful pedigree provides hope that he will improve
6 (3)	John Steed Grey J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	133	—	774734	68	76	43	16d	—	—	+4	7.5	8.00/1	33 3%
Hasn't run badly the last twice but now 0-7 and likely to be vulnerable once more
7 (7)	She Wore No Jewels Bay J:Luke Morris T:Clive Cox	J:Luke Morris T:Clive Cox	133	—	39434	68	76	-	20d	—	—	+5	8	12.25/1	50 2%
Ran better on nursery debut than she did last time out, but could still give good account
1 (8)	Master Franca Bay J:David Probert T:Hugo Palmer	J:David Probert T:Hugo Palmer	135	p	43309	70	76	-	14d	—	—	+6	8.1	9.75/1	40 3%
Too soon to write him off but something to prove following two heavy defeats
11 (2)	Alnoory Star Bay J:Ethan Jones(7) T:Richard Hughes	J:Ethan Jones(7) T:Richard Hughes	131	—	34575	66	74	53	20d	—	—	+4	5	24.75/1	100 1%
There's been no improvement for the switch to handicaps and she needs to raise her game
12 (9)	Meet Me In Meraki Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:David Evans	J:Darragh Keenan T:David Evans	129	—	7575	64	77	49	22d	—	—	+2	3.9	24.75/1	100 1%
Only fifth of seven on nursery debut and others make greater appeal

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tropical Air	2	2	2	2	9/4
Mitwaa	10/3	10/3	3	10/3	10/3
Bulldog Drummond	3	10/3	3	16/5	10/3
Enpassant	9	17/2	8	17/2	17/2
Cuban Harry	10	9/1	17/2	9	17/2
Guns And Flowers	16	16	16	16	16
Timebar	16	20/1	16/1	16	18
John Steed	33	25	25	28	28
She Wore No Jewels	50	33	33	33	33
Master Franca	40	33	28/1	33	33
Alnoory Star	100	100	100	100	100
Meet Me In Meraki	100	100	100	100	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tropical Air

36.5

OR: 5 Form: 23.5 Odds: 8

9/4

2nd

Mitwaa

OR: 4.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Bulldog Drummond

17.4

OR: 4.3 Form: 7.4 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Guns And Flowers

11.6

OR: 5 Form: 5.4 Odds: 1.2

Enpassant

11.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Master Franca

8.1

OR: 5 Form: 2.4 Odds: 0.7

She Wore No Jewels

OR: 4.5 Form: 2.7 Odds: 0.8

John Steed

7.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.9

Cuban Harry

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

Timebar

5.5

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Alnoory Star

OR: 4 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.4

100

Meet Me In Meraki

3.9

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tropical Air	70	81	68
Guns And Flowers	70	78	58
Master Franca	70	76	—
Mitwaa	69	76	—
Cuban Harry	69	79	—
Enpassant	68	74	—
John Steed	68	76	43
She Wore No Jewels	68	76	—
Bulldog Drummond	67	80	68
Timebar	67	73	—
Alnoory Star	66	74	53
Meet Me In Meraki	64	77	49

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tropical Air	3d ago	Quick return
Bulldog Drummond	10d ago	Quick return
Timebar	13d ago	Quick return
Cuban Harry	14d ago	Fit
Master Franca	14d ago	Fit
John Steed	16d ago	Fit
Mitwaa	20d ago	Fit
Enpassant	20d ago	Fit
Guns And Flowers	20d ago	Fit
She Wore No Jewels	20d ago	Fit
Alnoory Star	20d ago	Fit
Meet Me In Meraki	22d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 7f1y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.