Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Handicap – Lingfield (AW)

Lingfield (AW)

16:15

Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Handicap

Date 2023-10-05

Distance 1m1y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 37.37s (slow by 2.47s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Daisy Roots (GB) Callum Shepherd · Adam West	5/1	Won
2nd	Island Native (IRE) Luke Morris · Heather Main	2/1F	.5
3rd	Golden Phase (GB) Rob Hornby · Denis Coakley	9/2	1.5
4th	Elusive Tiger (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Archie Watson	9/2	1
5th	Tiz Likely (IRE) David Probert · J S Moore	125/1	0.05
6th	Ajrad (GB) Neil Callan · Michael Attwater	7/1	.75
7th	Kenstone (FR) Finley Marsh · Adrian Wintle	16/1	.5
8th	Alicefromumbridge (GB) Christian Howarth · Rebecca Woodman	50/1	.5
9th	Luxy Lou (IRE) Billy Loughnane · Adrian Wintle	10/1	1
10th	Klip Klopp (GB) Rhys Clutterbuck · Paddy Butler	80/1	1.75
11th	Gintini (IRE) William Carson · Laura Mongan	28/1	5

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (10)	Island Native Grey J:Luke Morris T:Heather Main	J:Luke Morris T:Heather Main	131	—	525652	54	68	62	10d	—	—	-12	15.4	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Near miss at Wolverhampton ten days ago; 2lb well in; solid contender
7 (11)	Golden Phase Chestnut J:Rob Hornby T:Denis Coakley	J:Rob Hornby T:Denis Coakley	129	—	549012	52	66	57	26d	—	—	+3	16.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
On the up in recent starts and 1m on Polytrack no issue; still capable of better
6 (9)	Elusive Tiger Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	130	p	0-0845	53	65	52	21d	—	—	-9	4.8	1.00/1	5 20%
Offered a bit more since upped in trip and handicapping; headgear added now; contender
4 (3)	Daisy Roots Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Adam West	J:Callum Shepherd T:Adam West	132	p	513332	55	66	46	14d	—	—	+4	16.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Ffos Las winner (1m, soft) in July and held her form since; cheekpieces now reached for
2 (4)	Luxy Lou Chestnut J:Billy Loughnane T:Adrian Wintle	J:Billy Loughnane T:Adrian Wintle	135	—	314318	55	66	49	42d	—	—	+5	14.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Two wins this year, one of them here (7f); below par latest but type to bounce back
3 (5)	Kenstone Grey J:Finley Marsh T:Adrian Wintle	J:Finley Marsh T:Adrian Wintle	133	p	714325	53	66	28	19d	—	—	+2	9.9	2.50/1	11 9%
Disappointing favourite at Bath last month; in good order beforehand but others safer here
1 (1)	Ajrad Chestnut J:Neil Callan T:Michael Attwater	J:Neil Callan T:Michael Attwater	135	—	548650	55	70	61	36d	—	—	-4	3.4	2.00/1	9 11%
Should be making an impact at this level but his 2023 form has been patchy at best
NR (7)	Fragrance Bay J:TBC T:Ronald Harris	J: T:Ronald Harris	123	—	688007	46	67	-	20d	—	—	-11	4.5	8.00/1	33 3%
Regressive filly for whom the step up to 1m represents a new challenge; little appeal
9 (8)	Gintini Bay J:William Carson T:Laura Mongan	J:William Carson T:Laura Mongan	123	p	9-4474	46	60	37	29d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Ran better over C&D last month without entirely convincing he needed this far
12 (2)	Alicefromumbridge Chestnut J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Rebecca Woodman	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Rebecca Woodman	123	p	057774	46	66	33	54d	—	—	-2	0.7	9.75/1	40 3%
C&D winner in January but no progress since; now tried in cheekpieces
8 (12)	Klip Klopp Chestnut J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Paddy Butler	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Paddy Butler	126	p	546-80	46	-	-	53d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Tailed off in two runs for new yard this summer; not easy to recommend
11 (6)	Tiz Likely Bay J:David Probert T:J S Moore	J:David Probert T:J S Moore	123	p	045006	46	64	20	118d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Heavy defeats in four handicap runs from 1m to 1m6f; new headgear tried today

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Island Native	2	15/8	15/8	2	2
Golden Phase	5	9/2	9/2	5	5
Elusive Tiger	5	5	5	5	5
Daisy Roots	5	6	6/1	11/2	5
Luxy Lou	9	8	8	17/2	17/2
Kenstone	11	10	9	10	10
Ajrad	9	9	9	9	9
Fragrance	33	28	22	25	25
Gintini	33	28	25	28	28
Alicefromumbridge	40	40	33	40	33
Klip Klopp	100	80	66/1	80/1	66
Tiz Likely	100	80	66	80	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Golden Phase

16.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 12 Odds: 4

9/2

2nd

Daisy Roots

16.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

3rd

Island Native

15.4

OR: 1 Form: 6 Odds: 8.4

15/8

Luxy Lou

14.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 10.5 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Kenstone

9.9

OR: 0.8 Form: 7 Odds: 2.1

Elusive Tiger

4.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

Fragrance

4.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.5

Ajrad

3.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Gintini

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Alicefromumbridge

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Klip Klopp

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Tiz Likely

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Daisy Roots	55	66	46
Luxy Lou	55	66	49
Ajrad	55	70	61
Island Native	54	68	62
Elusive Tiger	53	65	52
Kenstone	53	66	28
Golden Phase	52	66	57
Fragrance	46	67	—
Gintini	46	60	37
Alicefromumbridge	46	66	33
Klip Klopp	46	—	—
Tiz Likely	46	64	20

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Island Native	10d ago	Quick return
Daisy Roots	14d ago	Fit
Kenstone	19d ago	Fit
Fragrance	20d ago	Fit
Elusive Tiger	21d ago	Fit
Golden Phase	26d ago	Fit
Gintini	29d ago	Fit
Ajrad	36d ago	Fit
Luxy Lou	42d ago	Fit
Klip Klopp	53d ago	Fresh
Alicefromumbridge	54d ago	Fresh
Tiz Likely	118d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 1m1y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.