Racing TV On Sky Channel 424 Nursery Handicap – Pontefract

Pontefract

14:30

Racing TV On Sky Channel 424 Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-10-09

Distance 6f

Class Class 4

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,234

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (2)	Invincible Molly Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	135	—	431	75	78	76	16d	—	—	+1	25.6	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Off the mark in a York novice last time; well drawn; should be competitive on h'cap debut
4 (5)	Catton Lady Bay J:Shane Gray T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Shane Gray T:Michael & David Easterby	133	—	142	73	82	76	18d	—	—	-1	23	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Best form since Carlisle debut win when 2nd in C&D novice last time; quite interesting
3 (4)	Validated Bay J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	134	v	325	74	79	69	25d	—	—	+3	14.1	1.50/1	7 14%
Promise on three runs over 7f; can pull hard so drop in trip with headgear might suit
5 (3)	Havana Rose Grey J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	132	—	316	72	80	59	20d	—	—	+8	16.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
6f novice winner last month; missed the break last time (5f); chance on h'cap debut
7 (10)	Willolarupi Bay J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Declan Carroll	132	—	2253	72	79	69	19d	—	—	+7	14.7	2.25/1	10 10%
Promise in all four runs over 5f; good 2nd on soft latest; chance on first run at 6f
9 (9)	Salamanca Lad Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	128	—	4071	68	83	65	21d	—	—	+10	16.2	2.75/1	12 8%
Won Thirsk nursery latest (2nd well beaten next time); up 4lb; other preferred
2 (7)	Count Palatine Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Brian Meehan	J:Billy Loughnane T:Brian Meehan	135	—	039260	75	82	77	16d	—	—	+5	11	3.25/1	14 7%
Chance on his Newbury h'cap 2nd in August (6f, good to soft) but not run as well since
10 (6)	Inspiring Speeches Chestnut J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	126	—	537	66	76	47	18d	—	—	+2	7.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Has shown some promise but doesn't look particularly well treated on handicap debut
8 (1)	Chumbaa Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	131	p	231156	71	81	78	14d	—	—	+11	14.9	5.25/1	22 5%
Two nursery wins in August, but not running as well now; well drawn but others stronger
6 (11)	Beechwood Star Chestnut J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	132	v	32380	72	80	59	25d	—	—	+7	9.9	9.75/1	40 3%
Two decent novice runs in the summer; well beaten after being hampered latest; h'cap debut
11 (8)	Oceanic Wonder Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	120	—	759287	60	81	54	16d	—	—	+4	5.4	31.00/1	125 1%
Second on nursery debut (7.5f) three runs back but lesser runs since; bit to prove

Horse	bet365	Coral
Invincible Molly	9/4	9/4
Catton Lady	5/2	5/2
Validated	7	7
Havana Rose	8	17/2
Willolarupi	9	10
Salamanca Lad	12	11
Count Palatine	14	12
Inspiring Speeches	12	14
Chumbaa	22	20
Beechwood Star	40	33
Oceanic Wonder	125	125

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Invincible Molly

25.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 7.3

9/4

2nd

Catton Lady

OR: 5.8 Form: 10 Odds: 7.3

5/2

3rd

Havana Rose

16.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Salamanca Lad

16.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 10 Odds: 1.7

Chumbaa

14.9

OR: 5.3 Form: 8.6 Odds: 1.1

Willolarupi

14.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 7 Odds: 2.2

Validated

14.1

OR: 6 Form: 5 Odds: 3.1

Count Palatine

OR: 6.3 Form: 3.1 Odds: 1.6

Beechwood Star

9.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0.8

Inspiring Speeches

7.7

OR: 4 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.6

Oceanic Wonder

5.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 0.4

125

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Invincible Molly	75	78	76
Count Palatine	75	82	77
Validated	74	79	69
Catton Lady	73	82	76
Havana Rose	72	80	59
Willolarupi	72	79	69
Beechwood Star	72	80	59
Chumbaa	71	81	78
Salamanca Lad	68	83	65
Inspiring Speeches	66	76	47
Oceanic Wonder	60	81	54

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Chumbaa	14d ago	Fit
Invincible Molly	16d ago	Fit
Count Palatine	16d ago	Fit
Oceanic Wonder	16d ago	Fit
Catton Lady	18d ago	Fit
Inspiring Speeches	18d ago	Fit
Willolarupi	19d ago	Fit
Havana Rose	20d ago	Fit
Salamanca Lad	21d ago	Fit
Validated	25d ago	Fit
Beechwood Star	25d ago	Fit