At The Races App Form Study Handicap – Wolverhampton (AW)

Wolverhampton (AW)

20:30

At The Races App Form Study Handicap

Date 2023-10-09

Distance 7f36y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 28.46s (slow by 2.46s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Major Gatsby (IRE) William Carson · Bill Turner	5/2F	Won
2nd	Liberty Breeze (GB) Robert Havlin · Simon Whitaker	11/2	0.3
3rd	Alyara (GB) Joe Leavy · John Flint	8/1	0.2
4th	Swiss Rowe (IRE) Darragh Keenan · Mark Loughnane	20/1	.5
5th	Crystal Dawn (IRE) Laura Pearson · Jessica Macey	11/2	1.5
6th	Aviary (GB) Christian Howarth · Adrian Wintle	12/1	0.1
7th	Buachaill (IRE) Cieren Fallon · Stella Barclay	33/1	2
8th	Mutanaaseq (IRE) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	5/1	1.25
9th	Madrinho (IRE) Alistair Rawlinson · Tony Carroll	28/1	0.2
10th	Macon Belle (GB) Liam Wright · Ed de Giles	33/1	0.3
11th	Fai Fai (GB) Mark Winn · Antony Brittain	12/1	.75
12th	Merry Secret (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	12/1	0.05

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (3)	Mutanaaseq Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	134	—	214119	57	76	52	21d	—	—	+3	21	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Better treated on AW than turf; patchy on Tapeta but this course ought to suit better
1 (1)	Major Gatsby Grey J:William Carson T:Bill Turner	J:William Carson T:Bill Turner	135	v	234643	58	74	-	28d	—	—	-7	10.6	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Currently 3-4 over C&D; running well enough on turf to suggest he's up to taking this
4 (7)	Liberty Breeze Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Simon Whitaker	J:Robert Havlin T:Simon Whitaker	133	—	208423	56	69	40	16d	—	—	-3	12.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Generally consistent but is best suited by Catterick and is currently 0-10 on Tapeta
3 (5)	Crystal Dawn Bay J:Laura Pearson T:Jessica Macey	J:Laura Pearson T:Jessica Macey	133	t	007924	56	72	57	90d	—	—	-9	10.7	0.75/1	4 25%
Does well at this time of year; new yard has been in good form, so she's considered
6 (9)	Alyara Bay J:Joe Leavy(7) T:John Flint	J:Joe Leavy(7) T:John Flint	131	p	355933	54	71	63	23d	—	—	-1	8.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Has regressed this year; will likely need a strong pace and some luck from stall 9
10 (6)	Merry Secret Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	124	tp	027356	47	70	65	10d	—	—	-3	4.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Hard to win with now but went close over C&D in August and should fare better
7 (12)	Aviary Bay J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Adrian Wintle	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Adrian Wintle	127	h	8-8069	50	66	41	16d	—	—	-4	1.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Should do better at this level but stall 12 isn't good for one happiest on the sharp end
9 (10)	Madrinho Chestnut J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Tony Carroll	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Tony Carroll	125	b	658227	48	69	32	35d	—	—	+3	7.2	5.25/1	22 5%
Knocking on now but he remains pretty consistent for his age; remains capable
8 (2)	Fai Fai Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:Antony Brittain	J:Mark Winn(3) T:Antony Brittain	126	—	778098	49	68	57	16d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-3	1.2	5.25/1	22 5%
Pulled hard on his first run at beyond sprint trips last time; can't be recommended
12 (4)	Buachaill Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Stella Barclay	J:Cieren Fallon T:Stella Barclay	123	h	306800	46	66	47	2d	—	—	-4	1.6	4.75/1	20 5%
Hood had a positive effect in the spring but he's reverted to type since
5 (8)	Swiss Rowe Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Mark Loughnane	J:Darragh Keenan T:Mark Loughnane	133	v	9-5108	56	71	54	75d	—	—	-1	2.4	8.00/1	33 3%
Absent since a poor run on turf in July; others have more obvious claims
11 (11)	Macon Belle Bay J:Liam Wright(7) T:Ed De Giles	J:Liam Wright(7) T:Ed De Giles	123	p	300367	46	68	60	6d	—	—	-1	2.3	9.75/1	40 3%
Longstanding, regressive maiden who's drawn wide; has become wildly inconsistent this year

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Mutanaaseq	4	10/3	10/3	7/2	7/2
Major Gatsby	9/2	5	9/2	9/2	4
Liberty Breeze	5	11/2	5	5	11/2
Crystal Dawn	4	4	4	4	4
Alyara	15/2	8	15/2	15/2	8
Merry Secret	10	11	10	9	14
Aviary	16	16	14	18	18
Madrinho	20	20	18	20	22
Fai Fai	20	22	20	20	22
Buachaill	20	18	14	12	18
Swiss Rowe	33	25	22	25	25
Macon Belle	40	28	25	28	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mutanaaseq

OR: 1.8 Form: 14 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

Liberty Breeze

12.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

3rd

Crystal Dawn

10.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 5.7

Major Gatsby

10.6

OR: 2 Form: 3.6 Odds: 5

9/2

Alyara

8.8

OR: 1 Form: 5.1 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Madrinho

7.2

OR: 0 Form: 6 Odds: 1.2

Merry Secret

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.1

Swiss Rowe

2.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Macon Belle

2.3

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.8

Aviary

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Buachaill

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Fai Fai

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Major Gatsby	58	74	—
Mutanaaseq	57	76	52
Liberty Breeze	56	69	40
Crystal Dawn	56	72	57
Swiss Rowe	56	71	54
Alyara	54	71	63
Aviary	50	66	41
Fai Fai	49	68	57
Madrinho	48	69	32
Merry Secret	47	70	65
Buachaill	46	66	47
Macon Belle	46	68	60

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Buachaill	2d ago	Quick return
Macon Belle	6d ago	Quick return
Merry Secret	10d ago	Quick return
Liberty Breeze	16d ago	Fit
Aviary	16d ago	Fit
Fai Fai	16d ago	Fit
Mutanaaseq	21d ago	Fit
Alyara	23d ago	Fit
Major Gatsby	28d ago	Fit
Madrinho	35d ago	Fit
Swiss Rowe	75d ago	Fresh
Crystal Dawn	90d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 7f36y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.