Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

20:30

Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap

Date 2023-10-10

Distance 1m4f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (10)	Lednikov Bay J:Jason Hart T:Ivan Furtado	J:Jason Hart T:Ivan Furtado	133	v	534654	58	80	50	8d	—	—	-11	8.3	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Record here reads 113 and he's 6lb below last winning mark; worth a second look
6 (6)	Lord Torranaga Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Philip Kirby	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Philip Kirby	131	—	433222	56	74	64	12d	—	—	+3	18.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Has won on Fibresand and Tapeta here; losing run up to 20, but went very close last time
7 (8)	Iconique Grey J:Kevin Stott T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Kevin Stott T:Rebecca Menzies	131	—	635363	56	76	-	16d	—	—	-3	10.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
1-25. though has become well handicapped if showing her best form
1 (2)	Oriental Art Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	136	—	632245	61	75	49	44d	—	—	-3	11.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Often placed, but now 0-22 and others are preferred for the win
3 (9)	Spring Glow Grey J:Abbie Pierce(7) T:William Knight	J:Abbie Pierce(7) T:William Knight	135	h	475344	60	75	47	5d	—	—	-3	6.7	1.88/1	15/2 12%
2lb lower than when third of 14 in a better race over C&D in August; may be worth chancing
10 (7)	Brunello Breeze Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Tom Tate	J:Joe Fanning T:Tom Tate	124	b	900756	49	69	-	20d	—	—	-7	2.7	2.00/1	8/1 11%
0-15, but is a half-brother to a dual AW winner including over this trip at Wolverhampton
9 (11)	Blue Hawaii Bay J:Dale Swift T:Tjade Collier	J:Dale Swift T:Tjade Collier	128	—	89-921	53	70	33	—	—	—	-3	2.4	2.75/1	12 8%
Just beaten here in May and won five days later; off 136 days, but can go well fresh
5 (1)	Black Smoke Bay J:Sean Levey T:Mark Loughnane	J:Sean Levey T:Mark Loughnane	133	t	700127	58	74	-	16d	—	—	+6	12.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Out of a Polytrack winner, but needs to leave his latest effort behind
11 (3)	Rita Rana Bay J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Adrian Wintle	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Adrian Wintle	121	h	965237	46	70	27	50d	—	—	+2	5.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Ran well a few times on the AW early last year, but just 1-25 and others look more solid
2 (5)	Sarkha Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	135	t	165050	60	75	62	12d	—	—	+1	3.2	9.75/1	40 3%
Has regressed lately and still to prove he wants this far; tongue-tie on
8 (4)	Seattle King Bay J:Josephine Gordon T:Phil Mcentee	J:Josephine Gordon T:Phil Mcentee	129	b	415700	54	75	26	10d	—	—	+1	3.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Back off last winning mark, but last in both starts last month and this trip looks too far

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Lednikov	3	10/3	3/1	10/3	10/3
Lord Torranaga	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Iconique	11/2	11/2	5	11/2	11/2
Oriental Art	11/2	5	5	5	5/1
Spring Glow	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Brunello Breeze	8	15/2	15/2	8	8/1
Blue Hawaii	12	12	12	12	12
Black Smoke	12	12	12/1	12	12/1
Rita Rana	20	22	22	22	22
Sarkha	40	33	28/1	33	33/1
Seattle King	50	50	50/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lord Torranaga

18.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 12.5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

Black Smoke

12.4

OR: 2 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.9

12/1

3rd

Oriental Art

11.4

OR: 2.8 Form: 4.6 Odds: 4

11/2

Iconique

10.2

OR: 1.5 Form: 5.1 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Lednikov

8.3

OR: 2 Form: 0.6 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Spring Glow

6.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Rita Rana

5.6

OR: 0 Form: 4.6 Odds: 1

Seattle King

3.6

OR: 1 Form: 2 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Sarkha

3.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Brunello Breeze

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Blue Hawaii

2.4

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Oriental Art	61	75	49
Spring Glow	60	75	47
Sarkha	60	75	62
Lednikov	58	80	50
Black Smoke	58	74	—
Lord Torranaga	56	74	64
Iconique	56	76	—
Seattle King	54	75	26
Blue Hawaii	53	70	33
Brunello Breeze	49	69	—
Rita Rana	46	70	27

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Spring Glow	5d ago	Quick return
Lednikov	8d ago	Quick return
Seattle King	10d ago	Quick return
Lord Torranaga	12d ago	Quick return
Sarkha	12d ago	Quick return
Iconique	16d ago	Fit
Black Smoke	16d ago	Fit
Brunello Breeze	20d ago	Fit
Oriental Art	44d ago	Fit
Rita Rana	50d ago	Fresh
Blue Hawaii	—	—