Download The At The Races App Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

16:15

Download The At The Races App Handicap

Date 2023-10-10

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 41.73s (slow by 4.03s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Kalamunda (GB) Rossa Ryan · Joseph Parr	5/4F	Won
2nd	Fast Affair (GB) Daniel Muscutt · James Fanshawe	11/1	4.25
3rd	Amathus (IRE) Frederick Larson · Patrick Chamings	33/1	1
4th	Esticky End (IRE) Connor Beasley · David & Nicola Barron	20/1	1.25
5th	Meng Tian (GB) Robert Havlin · S Woods	7/2	2.75
6th	Lowick (USA) Richard Kingscote · Daniel & Claire Kubler	6/1	3.5
7th	Tacitus (IRE) Dale Swift · Tjade Collier	16/1	2.25
8th	Premiership (GB) Adam Farragher · Michael Wigham	6/1	1.25
9th	Frog And Toad (IRE) David Allan · Mark Walford	33/1	1
10th	Nelson Bay (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Kevin Frost	66/1	6
11th	Josiebond (GB) Jack Garritty · Mark Walford	40/1	21

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (4)	Kalamunda Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Joseph Parr	J:Rossa Ryan T:Joseph Parr	132	—	88743	58	66	-	19d	—	—	-18	15.6	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Has improved since handicapping; siblings include several AW winners; one to keep onside
1 (5)	Meng Tian Bay J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	135	t	544693	58	74	58	12d	—	—	-10	11.2	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Much better when third over C&D last time; down another 1lb and major claims
4 (1)	Premiership Bay J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Michael Wigham	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Michael Wigham	134	—	-11813	57	71	-	52d	—	—	+8	20.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Needs to better his previous four efforts on Tapeta, but has improved since; shortlisted
6 (8)	Lowick Grey Roan J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	132	t	866386	58	69	40	14d	—	—	-4	6.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
0-7; may be suited by the shorter trip but has enough to prove; tongue-tie on
7 (6)	Tacitus Chestnut J:Dale Swift T:Tjade Collier	J:Dale Swift T:Tjade Collier	132	t	791827	55	70	29	21d	—	—	+2	9.9	2.50/1	11 9%
1-21 and no closer than fifth in six starts on the AW; others are more likely
10 (7)	Fast Affair Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	131	p	0-5055	57	66	55	71d	—	—	-2	3.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Five-race maiden who has to bounce back from a very poor effort last time; cheekpieces on
NR (12)	Espresso Freddo Bay J:TBC T:Adrian Wintle	J: T:Adrian Wintle	131	v	006-67	54	67	33	31d	—	—	-9	4.9	4.75/1	20 5%
Winner of just one of his last 25 starts and no improvement for the switch to this yard
3 (2)	Frog And Toad Bay J:David Allan T:Mark Walford	J:David Allan T:Mark Walford	134	tp	-08000	57	72	-	28d	—	—	-1	2.6	6.75/1	28 4%
Five efforts for this yard since April leave plenty to be desired; best watched
5 (9)	Esticky End Bay J:Connor Beasley T:David & Nicola Barron	J:Connor Beasley T:David & Nicola Barron	134	—	46-90R	57	67	32	38d	—	—	-1	2.6	6.75/1	28 4%
Has lost his way and refused to race at Wolverhampton last month; risky
2 (10)	Amathus Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Patrick Chamings	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Patrick Chamings	135	p	-35118	58	62	-	59d	—	—	+12	15.4	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Won twice at Lingfield in the summer, but no closer than sixth in seven starts on the AW
12 (3)	Josiebond Chestnut J:Jack Garritty T:Mark Walford	J:Jack Garritty T:Mark Walford	130	p	314488	53	73	-	40d	—	—	+1	3.5	8.00/1	33 3%
In the frame in two of her four starts on Tapeta and back off last winning mark
11 (11)	Nelson Bay Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Kevin Frost	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Kevin Frost	131	—	0-860	57	62	-	56d	—	—	0	2.2	16.25/1	66 2%
Has shown little so far including on handicap debut; plenty of improvement required

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Kalamunda	13/8	6/4	6/4	6/4	6/4
Meng Tian	3	3	11/4	3	11/4
Premiership	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Lowick	13/2	15/2	13/2	15/2	15/2
Tacitus	10	10	9	10	11
Fast Affair	14	14	12	14	16
Espresso Freddo	20	16	14	16	16
Frog And Toad	25	28	22	28	28
Esticky End	25	25/1	22	25	28
Amathus	25	33/1	25	33/1	33
Josiebond	28	33	25	33	33
Nelson Bay	66	66	50	66	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Premiership

20.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 15 Odds: 3.6

11/2

2nd

Kalamunda

15.6

OR: 2 Form: 3 Odds: 10.6

13/8

3rd

Amathus

15.4

OR: 2 Form: 12.6 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Meng Tian

11.2

OR: 2 Form: 3 Odds: 6.2

11/4

Tacitus

9.9

OR: 1.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.1

Lowick

6.4

OR: 2 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Espresso Freddo

4.9

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 3.9

Josiebond

3.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 2 Odds: 0.8

Fast Affair

3.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Frog And Toad

2.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Esticky End

2.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Nelson Bay

2.2

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Kalamunda	58	66	—
Meng Tian	58	74	58
Lowick	58	69	40
Amathus	58	62	—
Premiership	57	71	—
Fast Affair	57	66	55
Frog And Toad	57	72	—
Esticky End	57	67	32
Nelson Bay	57	62	—
Tacitus	55	70	29
Espresso Freddo	54	67	33
Josiebond	53	73	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Meng Tian	12d ago	Quick return
Lowick	14d ago	Fit
Kalamunda	19d ago	Fit
Tacitus	21d ago	Fit
Frog And Toad	28d ago	Fit
Espresso Freddo	31d ago	Fit
Esticky End	38d ago	Fit
Josiebond	40d ago	Fit
Premiership	52d ago	Fresh
Nelson Bay	56d ago	Fresh
Amathus	59d ago	Fresh
Fast Affair	71d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.