chelmsfordcityracecourse.com Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

17:00

chelmsfordcityracecourse.com Handicap

Date 2023-10-12

Distance 7f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,004

Winning Time 1m 24.25s (slow by 1.55s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Blue Flame (IRE) Marco Ghiani · Stuart Williams	5/2F	Won
2nd	Done Decision (GB) Hollie Doyle · Tom Ward	13/2	.75
3rd	Nubough (IRE) Oisin Murphy · Mark Pattinson	8/1	0.3
4th	Nemorum (GB) Connor Planas · T J Kent	40/1	0.3
5th	Cariad (GB) Callum Shepherd · George Scott	8/1	0.2
6th	Laura's Breeze (IRE) Saffie Osborne · Ed Dunlop	100/30	.5
7th	Landlordtothestars (IRE) Dougie Costello · James Evans	15/2	.75
8th	Muy Muy Guapo (GB) Paddy Bradley · Simon Dow	25/1	0.3
9th	Solar Portrait (IRE) Richard Kingscote · Daniel & Claire Kubler	12/1	0.3
10th	Decipher (IRE) David Egan · Jane Chapple-Hyam	33/1	2
11th	Ashmore (IRE) Kieran Shoemark · David Menuisier	20/1	6

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (3)	Blue Flame Grey J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	136	tp	890032	61	78	55	7d	—	—	-12	19.9	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Near-miss over C&D last week and 1lb lower today; 4lb well in; major player
7 (8)	Lauras Breeze b/br J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Dunlop	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Dunlop	133	—	394753	60	74	50	7d	—	—	-7	10.5	0.75/1	4 25%
Stayed on late for 3rd over C&D last week (Blue Flame 2nd); unexposed on AW; considered
9 (1)	Done Decision Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Tom Ward	J:Hollie Doyle T:Tom Ward	132	—	35239	59	73	39	15d	—	—	+1	10.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Not at his best at Kempton last time but still early days and Hollie Doyle a good booking
5 (4)	Cariad Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	133	b	725237	60	74	-	16d	—	—	+2	10.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Usually seen over 1m+; new headgear needs to give her a lift but handicapper relenting
8 (10)	Nubough Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Mark Pattinson	J:Oisin Murphy T:Mark Pattinson	132	t	276732	57	72	70	28d	—	—	+3	11	2.50/1	11 9%
Placed on last two starts, including C&D latest; Oisin Murphy booked; one to consider
2 (5)	Landlordtothestars Bay J:Dougie Costello T:James Evans	J:Dougie Costello T:James Evans	135	—	-12727	62	70	56	57d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+4	12.4	2.25/1	10 10%
A win and two seconds from his five handicap runs; still has time to do better
4 (2)	Solar Portrait Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	133	—	6744	60	67	44	17d	—	—	-3	4.4	2.75/1	12 8%
Promising 4th on h'cap debut at Leicester but looked as though further than 7f would suit
6 (7)	Muy Muy Guapo Bay J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Simon Dow	J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Simon Dow	133	—	046727	60	70	48	20d	—	—	+3	7.2	4.50/1	18/1 5%
12-race maiden who can fluff the start; has ability but too risky for comfort
3 (9)	Ashmore Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:David Menuisier	J:Kieran Shoemark T:David Menuisier	134	p	049870	61	77	52	24d	—	—	-1	4.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Big chance on his best handicap form; quiet of late but drop to Class 6 in his favour
10 (6)	Decipher Bay J:David Egan T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	J:David Egan T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	131	—	556099	58	67	16	17d	—	—	-3	3.7	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Unplaced all starts but down in class and the handicapper is relenting; can do better
11 (11)	Nemorum Bay J:Connor Planas(3) T:T J Kent	J:Connor Planas(3) T:T J Kent	121	b	77-984	46	66	56	28d	—	—	-2	0.7	9.75/1	40 3%
19-race maiden; ran well over C&D four weeks ago but not sure to back it up; drawn widest

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Blue Flame	9/4	2/1	9/4	9/4	9/4
Lauras Breeze	4	4	4	4	4
Done Decision	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Cariad	8	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2
Nubough	11	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Landlordtothestars	10	9	9	9	9
Solar Portrait	12	12	11	12	12
Muy Muy Guapo	18	18	18	18	18/1
Ashmore	18	18	18	18	18/1
Decipher	16	14	12	14	16/1
Nemorum	40	33	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Blue Flame

19.9

OR: 2.8 Form: 7.1 Odds: 10

9/4

2nd

Landlordtothestars

12.4

OR: 3 Form: 7 Odds: 2.4

3rd

Nubough

OR: 1.8 Form: 7.1 Odds: 2.1

Lauras Breeze

10.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 3 Odds: 5

Cariad

10.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Done Decision

10.1

OR: 2.3 Form: 5.2 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Muy Muy Guapo

7.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.2

18/1

Solar Portrait

4.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Ashmore

4.1

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Decipher

3.7

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Nemorum

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Landlordtothestars	62	70	56
Blue Flame	61	78	55
Ashmore	61	77	52
Lauras Breeze	60	74	50
Cariad	60	74	—
Solar Portrait	60	67	44
Muy Muy Guapo	60	70	48
Done Decision	59	73	39
Decipher	58	67	16
Nubough	57	72	70
Nemorum	46	66	56

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Blue Flame	7d ago	Quick return
Lauras Breeze	7d ago	Quick return
Done Decision	15d ago	Fit
Cariad	16d ago	Fit
Solar Portrait	17d ago	Fit
Decipher	17d ago	Fit
Muy Muy Guapo	20d ago	Fit
Ashmore	24d ago	Fit
Nubough	28d ago	Fit
Nemorum	28d ago	Fit
Landlordtothestars	57d ago	Fresh