Northumbria Leisure For Personal Service Nursery Handicap

Newcastle (AW)

19:30

Date 2023-10-13

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,873

Winning Time 1m 14.71s (slow by 4.31s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	I'm Spartacus (IRE) Ryan Sexton · Richard Fahey	13/2	Won
2nd	Cool Run (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Edward Bethell	11/1	1
3rd	Torvar (IRE) Ben Robinson · David O'Meara	18/1	0.3
4th	Assembly Call (IRE) Kieran O'Neill · Tom Dascombe	13/2	1
5th	Calafrio (GB) Andrew Mullen · Philip Kirby	100/1	.5
6th	Tokyo Drift (GB) Daniel Muscutt · David Loughnane	18/1	1.75
7th	Tropical Air (IRE) Jason Hart · Charlie Johnston	9/4F	.75
8th	Indication Call (IRE) Billy Garritty · K R Burke	9/2	1.25
9th	Land Lover (GB) Graham Lee · Craig Lidster	16/1	0.3
10th	Without Flaw (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Archie Watson	17/2	1.25
11th	Kandy House (IRE) Jack Mitchell · Charlie Johnston	11/1	1.25
12th	Petra Celera (IRE) Richard Oliver · K R Burke	40/1	.75

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (12)	Tropical Air Bay J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	134	—	331114	69	82	69	8d	—	—	0	29.2	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Pulled hard last week when tucked in behind horses; earlier AW form gives him major claims
1 (7)	Assembly Call Brown J:Kieran O'Neill T:Tom Dascombe	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Tom Dascombe	135	—	566	70	75	-	21d	—	—	-3	8.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Three turf runs have left the impression there is more to come; interesting
8 (9)	Indication Call Bay J:Billy Garritty T:K R Burke	J:Billy Garritty T:K R Burke	133	b	274353	68	78	-	17d	—	—	0	12.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Consistent in nurseries without managing to win one; switch to AW needs to spark extra
10 (10)	Kandy House Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	682333	65	76	63	18d	—	—	+2	15.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Consistent rather than progressive; return to 6f can help; stable also run Tropical Air
3 (5)	Cool Run Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	134	p	5633	69	72	-	20d	—	—	+4	12.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Not lived up to market billing yet but return to 6f & addition of headgear could help
6 (4)	Without Flaw Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	134	—	441523	69	77	-	18d	—	—	+9	16.4	2.25/1	10 10%
Ffos Las winner in July; placed the last twice; should give her running on Tapeta debut
9 (3)	Im Spartacus Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	132	—	621737	67	78	27	17d	—	—	+4	12.7	2.75/1	12 8%
C&D win for B Smart; stable debut came in a stronger race; one to consider down in class
11 (1)	Torvar Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:David Omeara	J:Ben Robinson T:David Omeara	125	h	456554	60	79	63	13d	—	—	-3	4.4	3.25/1	14 7%
Fair effort upped to 6f last month but without suggesting he was ready to break his duck
5 (8)	Land Lover Bay J:Graham Lee T:Craig Lidster	J:Graham Lee T:Craig Lidster	134	b	324076	69	72	-	14d	—	—	+3	6.7	6.00/1	25 4%
Early promise but more recent efforts have been disappointing; blinkered for nursery debut
4 (6)	Tokyo Drift Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:David Loughnane	J:Daniel Muscutt T:David Loughnane	134	—	302336	69	76	45	51d	—	—	+7	10.8	5.50/1	22/1 4%
No progress for handicapping latest (well backed); looks high in the weights; front-runner
2 (11)	Petra Celera Bay J:Richard Oliver T:K R Burke	J:Richard Oliver T:K R Burke	134	p	231307	69	75	-	30d	—	—	+8	10.6	9.75/1	40 3%
Catterick win (6f) has been franked but struggled in nurseries the last twice; AW debut
12 (2)	Calafrio Grey J:Andrew Mullen T:Philip Kirby	J:Andrew Mullen T:Philip Kirby	124	—	467	59	71	32	17d	—	—	+1	2.6	19.75/1	80 1%
Just modest form in three fillies' maidens; opening mark looks stiff enough

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tropical Air	2	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4
Assembly Call	7	13/2	6	7	13/2
Indication Call	11/2	13/2	6	13/2	7
Kandy House	6	6	11/2	6	6
Cool Run	8	17/2	8	8	9
Without Flaw	9	10	10	10	10
Im Spartacus	12	10	10	11	10
Torvar	12	12	11	11	14
Land Lover	22	25	22	22	25
Tokyo Drift	20	22	22/1	22	22
Petra Celera	40	33	28	33	33
Calafrio	80	80	66	66	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tropical Air

29.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 15.6 Odds: 8.9

7/4

2nd

Without Flaw

16.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 9.5 Odds: 2.1

3rd

Kandy House

15.9

OR: 3.8 Form: 8.1 Odds: 4

11/2

Im Spartacus

12.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 6.1 Odds: 2.4

Indication Call

12.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Cool Run

12.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 5.1 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Tokyo Drift

10.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1

22/1

Petra Celera

10.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 5.1 Odds: 0.7

Assembly Call

8.1

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Land Lover

6.7

OR: 4.8 Form: 1 Odds: 1

Torvar

4.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Calafrio

2.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Assembly Call	70	75	—
Tropical Air	69	82	69
Cool Run	69	72	—
Without Flaw	69	77	—
Land Lover	69	72	—
Tokyo Drift	69	76	45
Petra Celera	69	75	—
Indication Call	68	78	—
Im Spartacus	67	78	27
Kandy House	65	76	63
Torvar	60	79	63
Calafrio	59	71	32

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tropical Air	8d ago	Quick return
Torvar	13d ago	Quick return
Land Lover	14d ago	Fit
Indication Call	17d ago	Fit
Im Spartacus	17d ago	Fit
Calafrio	17d ago	Fit
Kandy House	18d ago	Fit
Without Flaw	18d ago	Fit
Cool Run	20d ago	Fit
Assembly Call	21d ago	Fit
Petra Celera	30d ago	Fit
Tokyo Drift	51d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Tokyo Drift	Front Runner
Without Flaw	Prominent
Tropical Air	Mid-Pack

Inferred from horse comments. 3 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.