Stay In Control At BetMGM Handicap – Wolverhampton (AW)

Wolverhampton (AW)

18:30

Stay In Control At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2023-11-14

Distance 7f36y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,873

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (3)	Thapa Vc Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Mark Rimell	J:Rob Hornby T:Mark Rimell	132	t	697772	73	89	75	21d	—	—	-2	16.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Record over C&D reads 111412 including winning this race last year; makes plenty of appeal
4 (5)	Intervention Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	133	h	764273	74	87	76	12d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+2	15.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Three-time course winner but losing run now up to 26; others more persuasive
10 (6)	Novak Grey J:David Probert T:Iain Jardine	J:David Probert T:Iain Jardine	131	—	570733	72	86	74	21d	—	—	0	15	1.38/1	11/2 15%
2lb lower than when completing a turf hat-trick earlier in year; ran well here last time
11 (9)	Showtime Mahomes Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Grant Tuer	J:Jack Mitchell T:Grant Tuer	130	—	651365	71	86	69	12d	—	—	+2	12.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Didn't enjoy a clear run when behind a couple of these over C&D 12 days ago; not dismissed
9 (11)	Liberty Mountain Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Joseph Parr	J:Rossa Ryan T:Joseph Parr	131	—	572261	73	85	80	24d	—	—	+11	23.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
5lb higher than when winning over C&D last month; drawn wide again
6 (10)	Star Zinc Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Hayley Turner T:Rebecca Menzies	132	—	608301	73	87	58	12d	—	—	+12	19.4	2.25/1	10 10%
Won at Newcastle last time, but not sure this easier 7f is in his favour and is drawn wide
1 (1)	Visibility Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	134	—	501541	75	87	76	12d	—	—	+15	21	2.75/1	12 8%
Five-time course winner including over 7f last time; one to take seriously at this venue
2 (4)	Touchwood Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	134	p	732212	75	88	69	12d	—	—	+18	24.8	2.75/1	12 8%
Proving consistent of late; up another 2lb, but likely to put up another bold show
12 (12)	Song Of Success Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:James Fanshawe	J:Billy Loughnane T:James Fanshawe	130	—	353315	72	87	68	27d	—	—	+11	16.3	4.25/1	18 6%
C&D winner on penultimate start and return to that trip may help, but drawn widest
3 (8)	Initio Bay J:Harry Davies T:Edward Bethell	J:Harry Davies T:Edward Bethell	133	—	33701	75	88	42	18d	—	—	+14	19.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Off the mark in a C&D novice last time, but more will be needed back in a handicap
7 (7)	Surprise Picture Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:Grant Tuer	J:Mark Winn(3) T:Grant Tuer	132	v	441295	73	86	72	12d	—	—	+9	12.2	6.75/1	28 4%
C&D winner in September and has twice run well back here since; each-way shout
8 (2)	Abbey's Dream Bay J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	131	p	724120	73	87	61	21d	—	—	+13	16	8.00/1	33 3%
C&D winner in September, but finished behind four of these returned here three weeks ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Thapa Vc	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Intervention	11/2	11/2	6	11/2	11/2
Novak	4	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Showtime Mahomes	7	7/1	7	7/1	13/2
Liberty Mountain	15/2	13/2	13/2	7/1	7
Star Zinc	10	9/1	10	10	10
Visibility	11	11	12	11	11
Touchwood	12	11	11	11	11
Song Of Success	18	14	14	14	14
Initio	16	14/1	12	14/1	16
Surprise Picture	28	22	22	22	22
Abbey's Dream	33	33	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Touchwood

24.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 16.6 Odds: 1.9

2nd

Liberty Mountain

23.1

OR: 5.8 Form: 14 Odds: 3.3

15/2

3rd

Visibility

OR: 6.3 Form: 13 Odds: 1.7

Star Zinc

19.4

OR: 5.8 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.1

Initio

19.4

OR: 6.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 1.6

Song Of Success

16.3

OR: 5.5 Form: 9.4 Odds: 1.4

Thapa Vc

16.2

OR: 5.8 Form: 5 Odds: 5.4

7/2

Abbey's Dream

OR: 5.8 Form: 9.5 Odds: 0.7

Intervention

15.1

OR: 6 Form: 5.5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Novak

OR: 5.5 Form: 5.1 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Showtime Mahomes

12.6

OR: 5.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.9

7/1

Surprise Picture

12.2

OR: 5.8 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Visibility	75	87	76
Touchwood	75	88	69
Initio	75	88	42
Intervention	74	87	76
Thapa Vc	73	89	75
Liberty Mountain	73	85	80
Star Zinc	73	87	58
Surprise Picture	73	86	72
Abbey's Dream	73	87	61
Novak	72	86	74
Song Of Success	72	87	68
Showtime Mahomes	71	86	69

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Intervention	12d ago	Quick return
Showtime Mahomes	12d ago	Quick return
Star Zinc	12d ago	Quick return
Visibility	12d ago	Quick return
Touchwood	12d ago	Quick return
Surprise Picture	12d ago	Quick return
Initio	18d ago	Fit
Thapa Vc	21d ago	Fit
Novak	21d ago	Fit
Abbey's Dream	21d ago	Fit
Liberty Mountain	24d ago	Fit
Song Of Success	27d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 7f36y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.