Stay In Control At BetUK Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:05

Stay In Control At BetUK Handicap

Date 2023-11-14

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (11)	Sherdil Bay J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	133	—	985583	52	67	31	12d	—	—	-8	7.9	0.75/1	4 25%
Not found his best form this year but more promise when a close third over C&D 12 days ago
8 (9)	John Kirkup Chestnut J:Jonny Peate(3) T:David Thompson	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:David Thompson	133	b	424721	52	70	19	25d	—	—	+5	19	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Got up late at Redcar last month (5f, heavy); 0-10 on AW though and others are safer
1 (2)	High Opinion Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Bryan Smart	J:Clifford Lee T:Bryan Smart	135	—	345477	54	69	-	25d	—	—	-9	5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Infrequent winner but he's on a dangerous mark if reproducing this year's best form
6 (12)	One Last Hug Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	133	—	706654	52	66	51	15d	—	—	-7	3.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Three Ayr wins this year; not beaten far over C&D latest; P Mulrennan replaces 7lb claimer
7 (7)	Nellie French Bay J:Jason Hart T:Katie Scott	J:Jason Hart T:Katie Scott	133	t	475972	52	68	56	12d	—	—	-3	8.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Conditions to suit and she ran well for 2nd over C&D 12 days ago; leading contender
3 (6)	Gowanbuster Bay J:Harry Russell T:Susan Corbett	J:Harry Russell T:Susan Corbett	135	t	726845	54	62	46	7d	—	—	-4	4.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Retains ability but he needs to better last week's 6f effort to come out on top
4 (10)	Stallone Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Michael Dods	J:Faye McManoman T:Michael Dods	134	b	177546	53	69	58	12d	—	—	-5	3.1	2.25/1	10 10%
C&D winner; 1lb lower than for Southwell win in June; behind a couple of these here latest
12 (5)	Beneficiary Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Liam Bailey	J:Billy Garritty T:Liam Bailey	130	—	649555	49	66	56	28d	—	—	-6	2.1	2.50/1	11 9%
Couldn't reward market support here (6f) four weeks ago; others appeal more for the win
5 (3)	Basholo Bay J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Stella Barclay	J:Zak Wheatley(5) T:Stella Barclay	134	—	165337	53	68	58	15d	—	—	0	6.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Too keen over 6f here last time & didn't get home; chance on last month's 2 placed efforts
2 (4)	Keep It Hush Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	135	h	4-359	54	65	18	14d	—	—	-1	1.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Promise in 5f novices on Tapeta; ground a valid excuse on handicap debut latest; unexposed
11 (8)	Jailhouse Rock Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Peter Niven	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Peter Niven	130	—	65600	49	63	33	22d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
No improvement for handicaps the last twice; others have more obvious claims
9 (1)	Heartlander Chestnut J:Andrew Mullen T:Ewan Whillans	J:Andrew Mullen T:Ewan Whillans	133	—	95-08	52	65	-	165d	—	—	0	0.8	24.75/1	100 1%
One fair effort for former yard; 100-1 & tailed off on h'cap debut when last seen in June

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Sherdil	4	4	4	4	4
John Kirkup	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	5
High Opinion	9/2	5	5	5	5
One Last Hug	7	13/2	7	7	7/1
Nellie French	7	13/2	7	7	7
Gowanbuster	8	8	8	8	17/2
Stallone	10	17/2	9	9	8/1
Beneficiary	10	10	10	10	11
Basholo	14	12	12	12	12
Keep It Hush	33	33	33	33	28
Jailhouse Rock	66	50	50	50	50
Heartlander	100	100	100	100	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

John Kirkup

OR: 0.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 4

9/2

2nd

Nellie French

8.8

OR: 0.5 Form: 5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

3rd

Sherdil

7.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

Basholo

6.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.7

High Opinion

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 4

9/2

Gowanbuster

4.5

OR: 1 Form: 1 Odds: 2.5

17/2

One Last Hug

3.6

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Stallone

3.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Beneficiary

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Keep It Hush

1.8

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Heartlander

0.8

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100

Jailhouse Rock

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
High Opinion	54	69	—
Gowanbuster	54	62	46
Keep It Hush	54	65	18
Stallone	53	69	58
Basholo	53	68	58
Sherdil	52	67	31
John Kirkup	52	70	19
One Last Hug	52	66	51
Nellie French	52	68	56
Heartlander	52	65	—
Beneficiary	49	66	56
Jailhouse Rock	49	63	33

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Gowanbuster	7d ago	Quick return
Sherdil	12d ago	Quick return
Nellie French	12d ago	Quick return
Stallone	12d ago	Quick return
Keep It Hush	14d ago	Fit
One Last Hug	15d ago	Fit
Basholo	15d ago	Fit
Jailhouse Rock	22d ago	Fit
John Kirkup	25d ago	Fit
High Opinion	25d ago	Fit
Beneficiary	28d ago	Fit
Heartlander	165d ago	Long break