Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM "Confined" Handicap (For horses Which Have Won No More Than One Race)

Wolverhampton (AW)

17:00

Date 2023-11-17

Distance 7f36y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (12)	Connected Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	131	b	78716	60	81	59	41d	—	—	-10	17.9	0.63/1	5/2 29%
C&D win on handicap debut in September; poorly drawn latest and same fate here
1 (5)	Storymaker Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	135	b	345376	64	75	66	22d	—	—	-8	10.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
0-11 but down in the weights and the new headgear/return to 7f could give her a lift
3 (3)	Guiteau Grey J:Charles Bishop T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Charles Bishop T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	134	—	425921	63	76	63	22d	—	—	+8	21.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Ready winner under a well-judged Oisin Murphy ride over C&D last month; solid contender
11 (9)	Once Adaay Bay J:George Wood T:Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque	J:George Wood T:Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque	128	tv	-55763	57	77	57	16d	—	—	-4	8.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Ran well upped to 7f 16 days ago (form franked); visor now added; still unexposed
10 (7)	Global Effort Chestnut J:Harry Burns(3) T:John Butler	J:Harry Burns(3) T:John Butler	130	—	346525	59	78	69	13d	—	—	-2	8.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Two solid recent efforts over 6f but this first crack at 7f asks a new question of him
12 (2)	Viscountess Renard Bay J:Jack Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Jack Garritty T:Richard Fahey	128	—	450	57	67	-	98d	—	—	-4	3.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Good pedigree but just modest form in three turf novices this summer; betting to guide
6 (8)	Hawajes Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Tony Carroll	J:Rossa Ryan T:Tony Carroll	131	—	40480	60	71	45	15d	—	—	-2	4.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Two heavy defeats in handicaps, the latest here two weeks ago (6f); others much safer.
4 (4)	Zina Colada b/br J:Tom Queally T:George Margarson	J:Tom Queally T:George Margarson	133	—	40418	62	76	32	34d	—	—	+8	10.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Yarmouth win flattered her and she's been well beaten since; needs a career best
9 (11)	Bishop's Glory Chestnut J:Finley Marsh T:Alexandra Dunn	J:Finley Marsh T:Alexandra Dunn	130	—	-40928	59	73	58	41d	—	—	+4	6.5	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Exposed maiden; had an excuse here latest but tricky draw to negotiate today
2 (6)	Olympic Quest Chestnut J:William Cox T:Joe Ponting	J:William Cox T:Joe Ponting	134	—	523457	63	74	61	11d	—	—	+3	5.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Ran well enough on stable debut 11 days ago; not dismissed back at 7f and down in class
8 (1)	My Turn Now Bay J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Michael Attwater	J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Michael Attwater	131	—	446558	60	71	46	21d	—	—	+1	3	16.25/1	66 2%
Needs to step up on her two runs for this yard and stamina remains a concern
5 (10)	Break The Spell Bay J:William Carson T:Michael Attwater	J:William Carson T:Michael Attwater	131	h	7-7357	60	66	31	22d	—	—	+1	2.9	49.75/1	200 1%
Not built on her promising debut effort and a new hood/return to 7f not enough to tempt

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Connected	9/4	9/4	17/8	9/4	5/2
Storymaker	4	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Guiteau	5	5	9/2	5	5
Once Adaay	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Global Effort	8	15/2	7	15/2	7
Viscountess Renard	12	11	10	12/1	11
Hawajes	16	14	11	16/1	16
Zina Colada	33	28	28	28	28
Bishop's Glory	33	28	25	33/1	28
Olympic Quest	33	28	28	28	28
My Turn Now	66	50	40	50	40
Break The Spell	200	150	150	150	150

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Guiteau

21.8

OR: 3.3 Form: 14.5 Odds: 4

9/2

2nd

Connected

17.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 7 Odds: 8.4

5/2

3rd

Zina Colada

10.9

OR: 3 Form: 7 Odds: 0.9

Storymaker

10.2

OR: 3.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Global Effort

8.8

OR: 2.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Once Adaay

8.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Bishop's Glory

6.5

OR: 2.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Olympic Quest

5.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 1.9 Odds: 0.8

Hawajes

4.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Viscountess Renard

3.9

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

My Turn Now

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Break The Spell

2.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

200

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Storymaker	64	75	66
Guiteau	63	76	63
Olympic Quest	63	74	61
Zina Colada	62	76	32
Connected	60	81	59
Hawajes	60	71	45
My Turn Now	60	71	46
Break The Spell	60	66	31
Global Effort	59	78	69
Bishop's Glory	59	73	58
Once Adaay	57	77	57
Viscountess Renard	57	67	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Olympic Quest	11d ago	Quick return
Global Effort	13d ago	Quick return
Hawajes	15d ago	Fit
Once Adaay	16d ago	Fit
My Turn Now	21d ago	Fit
Storymaker	22d ago	Fit
Guiteau	22d ago	Fit
Break The Spell	22d ago	Fit
Zina Colada	34d ago	Fit
Connected	41d ago	Fit
Bishop's Glory	41d ago	Fit
Viscountess Renard	98d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Olympic Quest	Mid-Pack
Zina Colada	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 7f36y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.