Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:14

Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2023-11-19

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,454

Winning Time 1m 28.04s (slow by 4.24s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Keep Me Stable (IRE) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	100/30F	Won
2nd	Bobby Joe Leg (GB) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	7/1	1.25
3rd	Key Look (IRE) Sam James · Geoffrey Harker	10/1	.5
4th	Top Gun Tina (GB) Billy Loughnane · David Thompson	11/2	0.05
5th	Mumcat (GB) Joanna Mason · Jacqueline Coward	7/2	3.5
6th	Annalee Lass (IRE) Ben Robinson · Peter Niven	9/1	0.2
7th	Cosa Sara (IRE) David Egan · Jim Goldie	33/1	1.75
8th	Vortigan (GB) Clifford Lee · Michael Dods	16/1	1.5
9th	Possible Ambition (GB) Jason Hart · John Quinn	6/1	4
10th	Blame The Farrier (IRE) Jonny Peate · David Thompson	40/1	.5
11th	Brother Dave (GB) Cam Hardie · Ruth Carr	33/1	0.1
12th	Rockonmecca (IRE) Tom Eaves · Michael Dods	100/1	.75

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (3)	Mumcat Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	133	—	523136	56	70	61	5d	—	—	-3	16.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Won here in October and has continued in good form; she can go well again
1 (11)	Keep Me Stable Bay J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	139	—	230041	63	70	37	5d	—	—	+2	18.9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Won over C&D five days ago; saddles a 6lb penalty here but she still can't be discounted
10 (10)	Top Gun Tina Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:David Thompson	J:Billy Loughnane T:David Thompson	129	—	03572	53	74	63	19d	0W/0P 2 runs	0W/0P 2 runs	-3	10.7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Improved when 2nd in handicap here latest; she's weighted to go well again nudged up 1lb
2 (6)	Possible Ambition Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	135	b	4-4353	58	71	49	9d	—	—	-6	5.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Course winner who arrives in good order; he ought to be in the shake-up again
3 (8)	Bobby Joe Leg Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	134	—	365847	57	73	62	9d	—	—	-4	4	2.00/1	9 11%
Five C&D wins; did not enjoy the rub of the green when seventh here latest; shortlisted
4 (9)	Vortigan Chestnut J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	134	—	333579	58	72	41	13d	—	—	-2	5.6	2.50/1	11 9%
A maiden and his recent form in two Wolverhampton handicaps is not encouraging
7 (12)	Key Look Chestnut J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	131	hp	-07771	54	76	42	16d	—	—	+5	13.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Back with Geoff Harker when C&D winner latest; up 4lb but she's a player
11 (5)	Annalee Lass Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Peter Niven	J:Ben Robinson T:Peter Niven	127	p	492333	51	70	60	12d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+3	10.3	2.75/1	12 8%
Arrives in good form, solid third here 12 days ago; ought to be in the shake-up again
8 (2)	Cosa Sara Bay J:David Egan T:Jim Goldie	J:David Egan T:Jim Goldie	129	b	321460	52	69	-	33d	—	—	+2	5.4	8.00/1	33 3%
Scored at Ayr (7f) in September but her form has nosedived
12 (7)	Brother Dave Chestnut J:Cam Hardie T:Ruth Carr	J:Cam Hardie T:Ruth Carr	124	—	70948	48	71	52	19d	—	—	-2	0.9	6.75/1	28 4%
Slow start when eighth in 6f handicap here latest; considered stepping up in trip now
6 (1)	Blame The Farrier Chestnut J:Jonny Peate(3) T:David Thompson	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:David Thompson	132	p	369020	55	70	21	16d	—	—	+2	5.7	9.75/1	40 3%
Remains a maiden and he's not proved the easiest to catch right this term; cheekpieces now
9 (4)	Rockonmecca Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Dods	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Dods	129	b	433270	53	71	27	12d	—	—	+3	5.2	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Off four months before running poorly over C&D latest; blinkers replace visor

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Mumcat	10/3	10/3	3	10/3	10/3
Keep Me Stable	4	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Top Gun Tina	11/2	5	5	5	11/2
Possible Ambition	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Bobby Joe Leg	9	9	9	9	9
Vortigan	11	11	11	11	11
Key Look	9	9	9	9	11/1
Annalee Lass	12	11/1	11	12	10/1
Cosa Sara	33	28	22	28	28
Brother Dave	28	25	22	25	25
Blame The Farrier	40	33	25	33	33
Rockonmecca	80	80	50	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Keep Me Stable

18.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 10.6 Odds: 5

7/2

2nd

Mumcat

16.2

OR: 1.5 Form: 9 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Key Look

13.4

OR: 1 Form: 10 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Top Gun Tina

10.7

OR: 0.8 Form: 5.9 Odds: 4

11/2

Annalee Lass

10.3

OR: 0.3 Form: 8.1 Odds: 1.9

Blame The Farrier

5.7

OR: 1.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1

Vortigan

5.6

OR: 2 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.1

Cosa Sara

5.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 4 Odds: 0.9

Possible Ambition

5.3

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Rockonmecca

5.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 4 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Bobby Joe Leg

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

Brother Dave

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Keep Me Stable	63	70	37
Possible Ambition	58	71	49
Vortigan	58	72	41
Bobby Joe Leg	57	73	62
Mumcat	56	70	61
Blame The Farrier	55	70	21
Key Look	54	76	42
Top Gun Tina	53	74	63
Rockonmecca	53	71	27
Cosa Sara	52	69	—
Annalee Lass	51	70	60
Brother Dave	48	71	52

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mumcat	5d ago	Quick return
Keep Me Stable	5d ago	Quick return
Possible Ambition	9d ago	Quick return
Bobby Joe Leg	9d ago	Quick return
Annalee Lass	12d ago	Quick return
Rockonmecca	12d ago	Quick return
Vortigan	13d ago	Quick return
Key Look	16d ago	Fit
Blame The Farrier	16d ago	Fit
Top Gun Tina	19d ago	Fit
Brother Dave	19d ago	Fit
Cosa Sara	33d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.