BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap (Div I) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:30

BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap (Div I)

Date 2023-12-15

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 28.13s (slow by 3.23s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Camacho Star (IRE) Tom Eaves · Kevin Ryan	13/2	Won
2nd	Tea Sea (FR) William Carson · Tony Carroll	10/11F	.75
3rd	Swinging Eddie (GB) P J McDonald · Grant Tuer	16/1	0.3
4th	Pop Favorite (GB) Elisha Whittington · Scott Dixon	9/1	0.3
5th	Al Suil Eile (FR) Laura Pearson · Shaun Harris	28/1	1.25
6th	Brother Dave (GB) Joanna Mason · Ruth Carr	40/1	0.3
7th	Atrafan (IRE) Dougie Costello · Alan Brown	66/1	.5
8th	Rains Of Castamere (GB) David Allan · R Mike Smith	150/1	.5
9th	Eagle Creek (IRE) Billy Garritty · Michael & David Easterby	50/1	.75
10th	Sydney Bay (GB) Daniel Tudhope · Geoffrey Harker	4/1	0.2
11th	Explorers Way (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	16/1	0.3
12th	Willow Baby (IRE) Dale Swift · Jason Ward	12/1	3.25

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (1)	Tea Sea Bay J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	136	b	70-721	61	78	58	8d	—	—	-27	17.8	0.23/1	10/11 52%
Bolted up over 1m here last week; well in under a penalty; strong claims
6 (2)	Sydney Bay Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Geoffrey Harker	132	p	-00112	57	72	60	38d	—	—	+3	25.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Done well for new yard but over 6f; chance if as effective over the longer distance
4 (9)	Swinging Eddie Bay J:P J McDonald T:Grant Tuer	J:P J McDonald T:Grant Tuer	134	—	317406	59	73	59	20d	—	—	-1	6.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Back to last winning mark; needs to leave two AW runs last month behind him though
10 (8)	Pop Favorite Bay J:Elisha Whittington(5) T:Scott Dixon	J:Elisha Whittington(5) T:Scott Dixon	128	b	414254	53	72	54	5d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	0	7.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Five-time AW winner; ran OK given how hard he pulled early on Sunday; not ruled out
8 (11)	Camacho Star Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	130	—	710004	55	69	51	70d	—	—	-2	5.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Two turf wins this year; fair mark if a wind operation has the desired effect
2 (7)	Willow Baby Bay J:Dale Swift T:Jason Ward	J:Dale Swift T:Jason Ward	135	—	0322	60	74	52	31d	—	—	+8	14.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Placed in 6f novices on last three starts; ran well at Newcastle latest; handicap debut
3 (3)	Explorers Way Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	134	p	619168	59	74	44	26d	—	—	+4	11.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Two Newcastle wins in the autumn; less good the last twice but not ruled out at this level
5 (12)	Al Suil Eile Grey J:Laura Pearson T:Shaun Harris	J:Laura Pearson T:Shaun Harris	133	—	6-4246	58	70	-	290d	—	—	-2	3.4	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Conditions to suit and on a good mark but he's returning from 290 days on the sidelines
9 (6)	Eagle Creek Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	130	b	006000	55	72	50	31d	—	—	-1	2.2	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Plummeted down the weights but with good reason; too much to prove for now
12 (5)	Brother Dave Chestnut J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	121	—	709480	46	73	55	26d	—	—	-2	0.7	16.50/1	66/1 1%
The odd flicker of promise but last time was underwhelming and others look much safer
11 (4)	Atrafan Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Alan Brown	J:Dougie Costello T:Alan Brown	127	b	212180	52	73	26	224d	—	—	+8	9.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
In good form on AW in January; chance if returning from a break near that level
7 (10)	Rains Of Castamere Chestnut J:David Allan T:R Mike Smith	J:David Allan T:R Mike Smith	131	—	748-00	56	-	-	35d	—	—	+1	1.7	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Big prices and tailed off in two runs for this yard this autumn; plenty to prove for now

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Tea Sea	evn	10/11	10/11
Sydney Bay	4/1	10/3	3/1
Swinging Eddie	9/1	10/1	10/1
Pop Favorite	9/1	11/1	11/1
Camacho Star	9/1	14/1	14/1
Willow Baby	14/1	14/1	12/1
Explorers Way	14/1	16/1	14/1
Al Suil Eile	20/1	25/1	22/1
Eagle Creek	20/1	40/1	40/1
Brother Dave	66/1	40/1	40/1
Atrafan	40/1	40/1	40/1
Rains Of Castamere	150/1	150/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sydney Bay

25.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 17 Odds: 6.7

4/1

2nd

Tea Sea

17.8

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 15

10/11

3rd

Willow Baby

14.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 10 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Explorers Way

11.2

OR: 2.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1.9

16/1

Atrafan

9.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Pop Favorite

7.4

OR: 0.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Swinging Eddie

6.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 2 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Camacho Star

5.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 2 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Al Suil Eile

3.4

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

25/1

Eagle Creek

2.2

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

40/1

Rains Of Castamere

1.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Brother Dave

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tea Sea	61	78	58
Willow Baby	60	74	52
Swinging Eddie	59	73	59
Explorers Way	59	74	44
Al Suil Eile	58	70	—
Sydney Bay	57	72	60
Rains Of Castamere	56	—	—
Camacho Star	55	69	51
Eagle Creek	55	72	50
Pop Favorite	53	72	54
Atrafan	52	73	26
Brother Dave	46	73	55

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Pop Favorite	5d ago	Quick return
Tea Sea	8d ago	Quick return
Swinging Eddie	20d ago	Fit
Explorers Way	26d ago	Fit
Brother Dave	26d ago	Fit
Willow Baby	31d ago	Fit
Eagle Creek	31d ago	Fit
Rains Of Castamere	35d ago	Fit
Sydney Bay	38d ago	Fit
Camacho Star	70d ago	Fresh
Atrafan	224d ago	Long break
Al Suil Eile	290d ago	Long break