Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:10

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-01-04

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,757

Winning Time 1m 45.32s (slow by 8.32s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Hale End (IRE) Clifford Lee · Michael Dods	4/1	Won
2nd	Ivory Madonna (IRE) Jason Hart · Richard Spencer	8/1	2.25
3rd	Star Shield (GB) Ben Robinson · David O'Meara	16/1	2.25
4th	Trais Fluors (GB) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	17/2	0.3
5th	August (IRE) Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	13/8F	6
6th	Dragons Will Rise (IRE) Aiden Brookes · Micky Hammond	50/1	2
7th	Sucellus (GB) Harry Russell · Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	22/1	4.75
8th	Covert Legend (GB) Dale Swift · Tjade Collier	10/1	1.25
9th	Young Fire (FR) David Nolan · David O'Meara	16/1	3.5
10th	Rocket Rod (IRE) Sam James · Geoffrey Harker	17/2	.5
11th	Spacer (IRE) Laura Pearson · David Loughnane	66/1	9.5

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (11)	August Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	134	—	74322-	74	89	68	7d	—	—	-7	26.6	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Runner-up in both starts since joining this yard; interesting back in a handicap
8 (7)	Hale End Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	131	p	53435-	71	88	65	13d	—	—	-3	12.7	1.25/1	5/1 17%
1-15 but has run with credit in his last three starts at Wolverhampton; each-way claims
7 (3)	Ivory Madonna Grey J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	133	b	82023-	73	86	66	20d	—	—	+6	16.6	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Placed in last three starts on AW, but 0-15 and has developed a habit of starting slowly
11 (4)	Covert Legend Bay J:Dale Swift T:Tjade Collier	J:Dale Swift T:Tjade Collier	129	t	44394-	69	86	71	26d	—	—	-1	8.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
0-7 but has shown ability as when fourth on stable debut at Wolverhampton last time
12 (12)	Rocket Rod Bay J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	127	—	06253-	67	87	61	7d	—	—	+3	12.3	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Three of his four wins have come here, but he may not get the race run to suit
5 (5)	Trais Fluors b/br J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	133	—	73215-	73	88	76	27d	—	—	+9	18.8	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Made a successful stable debut over C&D in November and not beaten far here last time
4 (10)	Star Shield Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	134	p	08621-	74	88	44	27d	—	—	+15	21.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Three-time C&D winner; likes to come from off a solid pace but that by no means certain
1 (2)	Young Fire Bay J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	135	v	03665-	75	90	60	16d	—	—	+3	8.8	3.50/1	14/1 7%
On dangerous mark, but hasn't fired lately and may not get the good pace he needs
10 (6)	Sucellus Bay J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	130	t	97088-	70	83	60	13d	—	—	+2	6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
7lb lower than when last successful, but recent efforts raise doubts over his chances
2 (9)	Dragons Will Rise Bay J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:Micky Hammond	J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:Micky Hammond	134	—	537/0-	74	86	10	27d	—	—	+4	6.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Been off 512 days when well behind a couple of these over C&D last month; best watched
9 (1)	Spacer Grey J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	130	—	P/580-	70	84	61	22d	—	—	+3	5.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
1-17 and not at his best lately; needs a turnaround and does seem better over shorter
NR (8)	Flylikeaneagle Bay J:TBC T:Lucinda Russell	J: T:Lucinda Russell	133	tb	49872-	73	86	35	27d	—	—	—	10.8	—	—
Beaten a neck over 7f here last month, but that form looks ordinary; more will be needed

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
August	7/4	6/4	15/8	13/8	7/4
Hale End	5/1	5/1	9/2	4/1	9/2
Ivory Madonna	9/1	17/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Covert Legend	8/1	9/1	17/2	7/1	7/1
Rocket Rod	8/1	9/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Trais Fluors	9/1	10/1	9/1	7/1	7/1
Star Shield	10/1	12/1	12/1	10/1	10/1
Young Fire	14/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Sucellus	25/1	22/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
Dragons Will Rise	40/1	40/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Spacer	40/1	50/1	50/1	33/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

August

26.6

OR: 6 Form: 10 Odds: 10.6

15/8

2nd

Star Shield

21.4

OR: 6 Form: 13.5 Odds: 1.9

12/1

3rd

Trais Fluors

18.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 10.4 Odds: 2.7

10/1

Ivory Madonna

16.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 8 Odds: 2.9

9/1

Hale End

12.7

OR: 5.3 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Rocket Rod

12.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 5.5 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Flylikeaneagle

10.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 5 Odds: 0

—

Covert Legend

8.9

OR: 4.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Young Fire

8.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Dragons Will Rise

6.8

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Sucellus

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Spacer

5.6

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Young Fire	75	90	60
August	74	89	68
Star Shield	74	88	44
Dragons Will Rise	74	86	10
Ivory Madonna	73	86	66
Trais Fluors	73	88	76
Flylikeaneagle	73	86	35
Hale End	71	88	65
Sucellus	70	83	60
Spacer	70	84	61
Covert Legend	69	86	71
Rocket Rod	67	87	61

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
August	7d ago	Quick return
Rocket Rod	7d ago	Quick return
Hale End	13d ago	Quick return
Sucellus	13d ago	Quick return
Young Fire	16d ago	Fit
Ivory Madonna	20d ago	Fit
Spacer	22d ago	Fit
Covert Legend	26d ago	Fit
Trais Fluors	27d ago	Fit
Star Shield	27d ago	Fit
Dragons Will Rise	27d ago	Fit
Flylikeaneagle	27d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.