BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

15:20

BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3)

Date 2024-02-24

Distance 1m3f23y

Class Class 1

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £56,710

Winning Time 2m 24.15s (slow by 5.25s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Military Order (IRE) Daniel Tudhope · Charlie Appleby	9/4	Won
2nd	Lord North (IRE) Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden	5/4F	1
3rd	Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian	9/2	1.75
4th	Claymore (FR) Hollie Doyle · Jane Chapple-Hyam	25/1	0.3
5th	Forest Of Dean (GB) Kieran O'Neill · John & Thady Gosden	40/1	1.75
6th	Eydon (IRE) Kevin Stott · Andrew Balding	15/2	2.75

Runners (6)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (4)	Lord North Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	129	—	54/11-	120	133	85	336d	—	—	-8	29.3	0.31/1	5/4 44%
Led early - soon steadied and dropped to midfield - shaken up over 2f out - ridden and hung left over 1f out - edged right and went second inside final furlong - kept on(tchd 6/5 and tchd 11/8)
6 (1)	Military Order Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Charlie Appleby	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Charlie Appleby	128	—	1105-2	109	125	111	30d	—	—	+3	27	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Midfield - steady headway over 2f out - pushed along to lead over 1f out - ridden inside final furlong - kept on well(op 5/2)
5 (6)	Tyrrhenian Sea Grey J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	129	—	27021-	108	122	78	55d	—	—	+17	34	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Held up in rear - switched right and pushed along over 2f out - ridden over 1f out - kept on inside final 110yds - went third final strides
2 (5)	Eydon Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Andrew Balding	J:Kevin Stott T:Andrew Balding	129	—	3/214/	109	-	-	665d	—	—	+10	19.7	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Always behind (vet reported horse finished lame on his left hind)(op 7/1 tchd 13/2)
3 (3)	Forest Of Dean Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran O'Neill T:John & Thady Gosden	129	p	/1643-	103	120	86	98d	—	—	+17	20.1	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Soon led - clear after 1f - reduced lead and pushed along over 2f out - soon ridden - headed over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 33/1)
1 (2)	Claymore Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	J:Hollie Doyle T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	129	—	6752-6	103	115	90	30d	—	—	+11	14	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Raced in second behind clear leader - lost second and ridden over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - lost third final strides(op 33/1 tchd 40/1)

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Lord North	5/4	5/4	5/4	5/4	6/5
Military Order	5/2	5/2	9/4	9/4	9/4
Tyrrhenian Sea	5/1	9/2	11/2	9/2	9/2
Eydon	7/1	7/1	7/1	13/2	7/1
Forest Of Dean	33/1	33/1	25/1	28/1	28/1
Claymore	50/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tyrrhenian Sea

OR: 14.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 5

11/2

2nd

Lord North

29.3

OR: 17.5 Form: 0 Odds: 11.8

5/4

3rd

Military Order

OR: 14.8 Form: 5 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Forest Of Dean

20.1

OR: 13.3 Form: 6 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Eydon

19.7

OR: 14.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.9

7/1

Claymore

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lord North	120	133	85
Military Order	109	125	111
Eydon	109	—	—
Tyrrhenian Sea	108	122	78
Forest Of Dean	103	120	86
Claymore	103	115	90

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Military Order	30d ago	Fit
Claymore	30d ago	Fit
Tyrrhenian Sea	55d ago	Fresh
Forest Of Dean	98d ago	Long break
Lord North	336d ago	Long break
Eydon	665d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Lord North	Mid-Pack
Military Order	Mid-Pack
Tyrrhenian Sea	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 3 of 6 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m3f23y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.