Howden Supporting West Berkshire Mencap Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Newbury

13:50

Date 2024-03-01

Distance 2m4f118y

Class Class 4

Going Heavy

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £6,337

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10	Soldierofthestorm Chestnut J:Jack Hogan T:Jonjo O'Neill	J:Jack Hogan T:Jonjo O'Neill	162	—	-17641	111	118	106	16d	—	—	+15	32.5	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Up 6lb after Hereford win (2m4f, soft); could still be a work in progress, with potential
6	Thunderclap Bay J:Niall Houlihan T:Hughie Morrison	J:Niall Houlihan T:Hughie Morrison	165	—	21-551	114	123	102	21d	—	—	+5	20.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Won comfortably at Kempton (2m5f, soft; acts on heavy) on first foray beyond 2m1f; up 6lb
12	Il Va De Soi Grey J:Alice Stevens T:Harry Derham	J:Alice Stevens T:Harry Derham	155	p	24-447	104	116	105	77d	—	—	+4	17.1	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Heavy defeat when co-favourite for handicap debut (2m3f, good to soft); cheekpieces go on
9	Havaila Chestnut J:Bradley Harris(3) T:Anthony Charlton	J:Bradley Harris(3) T:Anthony Charlton	163	—	31-61P	112	118	87	13d	—	—	+8	18.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Sandown win (2m4f, soft) in January; flop at Ascot (2m7f) 13 days ago, which was a worry
7	The Bomber Liston Bay J:Freddie Gordon(3) T:Nicky Henderson	J:Freddie Gordon(3) T:Nicky Henderson	164	p	U55433	113	122	102	72d	—	—	+15	23	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Down the weights and has a place chance but others are more convincing for the win
1	Hercules Morse Bay J:Beau Morgan(3) T:Ben Pauling	J:Beau Morgan(3) T:Ben Pauling	168	—	351-6	117	121	28	30d	—	—	+11	19.1	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Tailed off on return; back down in trip and may strip fitter this time, for in-form yard
11	Kruger Park Chestnut J:Freddie Gingell(3) T:Paul Nicholls	J:Freddie Gingell(3) T:Paul Nicholls	156	t	P-9342	105	118	86	33d	—	—	+8	15.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Tongue tied for handicap debut at Fontwell (2m6f, soft) when beaten a head; needs better
3	Farmer's Gamble Chestnut J:Tristan Durrell(3) T:Dan Skelton	J:Tristan Durrell(3) T:Dan Skelton	168	p	210-PF	117	122	-	96d	—	—	+15	17.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Back over hurdles off a competitive mark; step back down in trip asks a question
4	Sizing Pottsie b/br J:Gearoid Harney(6) T:David Pipe	J:Gearoid Harney(6) T:David Pipe	166	t	9-2644	115	120	83	15d	—	—	+14	17	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Close second of five in November, before three lesser efforts; rarely seen over this far
2	Knockanore Bay J:Finn Lambert T:Ryan Potter	J:Finn Lambert T:Ryan Potter	168	p	371-3F	117	117	71	105d	—	—	+15	17.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Good third on reappearance; fell two out (not far away but under pressure) in November
5	Douglas Dc Bay J:Lilly Pinchin T:Tony Carroll	J:Lilly Pinchin T:Tony Carroll	166	—	974523	115	122	101	15d	—	—	+21	23.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Last two placings do not read so well; not proven beyond 2m1f and unraced over this far
NR	Monjules Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Harry Fry	J:NON-RUNNER T:Harry Fry	163	t	2-3276	112	121	-	32d	—	—	—	19	—	—
Went close at Plumpton in November but two backward steps since, trying 3m1f on latest

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Soldierofthestorm	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
Thunderclap	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Il Va De Soi	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Havaila	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
The Bomber Liston	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Hercules Morse	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Kruger Park	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Farmer's Gamble	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Sizing Pottsie	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Knockanore	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Douglas Dc	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Soldierofthestorm

32.5

OR: 15.3 Form: 12 Odds: 5.2

10/3

2nd

Douglas Dc

23.3

OR: 16.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0.6

33/1

3rd

The Bomber Liston

OR: 15.8 Form: 5.1 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Thunderclap

20.4

OR: 16 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

4/1

Hercules Morse

19.1

OR: 16.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Monjules

OR: 15.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0

—

Havaila

18.6

OR: 15.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

6/1

Farmer's Gamble

17.5

OR: 16.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Knockanore

17.3

OR: 16.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

33/1

Il Va De Soi

17.1

OR: 13.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

5/1

Sizing Pottsie

OR: 16.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

28/1

Kruger Park

15.9

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Hercules Morse	117	121	28
Farmer's Gamble	117	122	—
Knockanore	117	117	71
Sizing Pottsie	115	120	83
Douglas Dc	115	122	101
Thunderclap	114	123	102
The Bomber Liston	113	122	102
Havaila	112	118	87
Monjules	112	121	—
Soldierofthestorm	111	118	106
Kruger Park	105	118	86
Il Va De Soi	104	116	105

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Havaila	13d ago	Quick return
Sizing Pottsie	15d ago	Fit
Douglas Dc	15d ago	Fit
Soldierofthestorm	16d ago	Fit
Thunderclap	21d ago	Fit
Hercules Morse	30d ago	Fit
Monjules	32d ago	Fit
Kruger Park	33d ago	Fit
The Bomber Liston	72d ago	Fresh
Il Va De Soi	77d ago	Fresh
Farmer's Gamble	96d ago	Long break
Knockanore	105d ago	Long break