Kilberry Handicap Chase – Navan

Navan

17:08

Kilberry Handicap Chase

Date 2024-03-23

Distance 2m1f

Class

Going Heavy

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize €6,490

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4	De Lady In Red Chestnut J:Michael O'Sullivan T:Barry Connell	J:Michael O'Sullivan T:Barry Connell	161	t	-04544	109	111	85	59d	—	—	+1	20.5	0.75/1	3/1 25%
0-4 over fences; beaten 19l on h'cap debut; chase mark looks harsh; others more convincing
1	Dutch Schultz Bay J:Keith Donoghue T:Gavin Cromwell	J:Keith Donoghue T:Gavin Cromwell	168	h	1F3762	116	117	90	37d	—	—	+8	27.8	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Arrives on the back of a career best when 2nd but 3lb rise doesn't help; must jump better
6	Noble Blue Bay J:Sean Flanagan T:Paul Nolan	J:Sean Flanagan T:Paul Nolan	157	h	482435	105	114	70	35d	—	—	+6	21.8	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Some promising runs since switching to fences; below form when 5th on h'cap debut latest
3	Hardwired Bay J:Jack Kennedy T:T M Walsh	J:Jack Kennedy T:T M Walsh	163	tb	-171B1	111	118	41	69d	—	—	+25	35.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Made it 2 wins from last 3 starts at Punchestown latest but drops in trip not sure to suit
7	Politicise Bay J:Sam Ewing T:Nigel Thomas Slevin	J:Sam Ewing T:Nigel Thomas Slevin	154	tp	573638	102	124	97	14d	—	—	+10	18.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Losing run since 2020 and 0-13 over fences; not well treated on this season's form
8	Mighty Oak Lad Bay J:Donagh Meyler T:Karl Thornton	J:Donagh Meyler T:Karl Thornton	153	—	0-001P	101	-	-	56d	—	—	+8	14.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Significant market support when winning over timber 2 starts ago; may not appreciate 2m1f
9	Joke Dancer Chestnut J:Darragh O'Keeffe T:Patrick Griffin	J:Darragh O'Keeffe T:Patrick Griffin	149	t	6P-P3F	97	117	75	12d	—	—	+7	13.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
5-time winner over fences incl' on heavy ground; fell latest but well treated and capable
5	Bigz Belief Bay J:Ben Harvey T:Matthew J Smith	J:Ben Harvey T:Matthew J Smith	160	tb	1780U5	108	104	-	35d	—	—	+12	15.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Has shown nothing in 2 starts over fences and tendency to jump right won't help
NR	Jacksons Gold Bay J:TBC T:Ms Alice Curran	J: T:Ms Alice Curran	165	—	-908P3	113	126	64	13d	—	—	—	17.7	—	—
No wins since 2021 and 0-11 over fences; best form over further but well treated at least

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
De Lady In Red	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1
Dutch Schultz	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1
Noble Blue	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Hardwired	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Politicise	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Mighty Oak Lad	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Joke Dancer	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Bigz Belief	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Hardwired

35.1

OR: 15.3 Form: 17 Odds: 2.9

13/2

2nd

Dutch Schultz

27.8

OR: 16.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 5.7

3/1

3rd

Noble Blue

21.8

OR: 13.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 4.4

4/1

De Lady In Red

20.5

OR: 14.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

3/1

Politicise

18.4

OR: 13 Form: 3 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Jacksons Gold

17.7

OR: 15.8 Form: 2 Odds: 0

—

Bigz Belief

15.3

OR: 14.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Mighty Oak Lad

14.7

OR: 12.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Joke Dancer

13.7

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dutch Schultz	116	117	90
Jacksons Gold	113	126	64
Hardwired	111	118	41
De Lady In Red	109	111	85
Bigz Belief	108	104	—
Noble Blue	105	114	70
Politicise	102	124	97
Mighty Oak Lad	101	—	—
Joke Dancer	97	117	75

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Joke Dancer	12d ago	Quick return
Jacksons Gold	13d ago	Quick return
Politicise	14d ago	Fit
Noble Blue	35d ago	Fit
Bigz Belief	35d ago	Fit
Dutch Schultz	37d ago	Fit
Mighty Oak Lad	56d ago	Fresh
De Lady In Red	59d ago	Fresh
Hardwired	69d ago	Fresh