Bet On The Grand National @planetsportbet Fillies' Handicap

Southwell (AW)

15:05

Date 2024-04-11

Distance 4f214y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,716

Winning Time 59.43s (slow by 2.43s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Mersea (FR) Sam James · Grant Tuer	9/4	Won
2nd	Rodborough (GB) Clifford Lee · Alan Brown	11/8F	0.3
3rd	Alpine Girl (IRE) Ross Coakley · James Fanshawe	6/1	4.25
4th	Hurt You Never (IRE) Mia Nicholls · Adrian Nicholls	7/2	4.5

Runners (5)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (5)	Rodborough Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Alan Brown	J:Clifford Lee T:Alan Brown	136	p	215040	71	83	72	11d	—	—	-15	17.3	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Three C&D wins to her name; return to 5f/fillies' only company in her favour; solid chance
2 (1)	Mersea Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	134	—	986-62	69	85	65	8d	—	—	-16	14.1	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Good 2nd last week (6f, heavy) and runs off the same mark; stiffer test at 5f preferable
4 (2)	Hurt You Never Bay J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Adrian Nicholls	J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Adrian Nicholls	132	—	37-124	67	84	77	27d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-8	9.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Two fine efforts at Newcastle to kick off this season; may have done too much early latest
3 (3)	Alpine Girl Bay J:Ross Coakley T:James Fanshawe	J:Ross Coakley T:James Fanshawe	132	—	1336-4	67	83	67	8d	—	—	-6	8.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Two 5f wins last year; sharper for last week's return at Kempton where she looked rusty
NR (4)	Wakai Umi Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Mark Loughnane	J:NON-RUNNER T:Mark Loughnane	127	—	0076-4	62	80	56	7d	—	—	—	3	—	—
More promise at Wolverhampton after a break last week; up in class but on dangerous mark

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Rodborough	7/4	7/4	7/4
Mersea	7/4	7/4	7/4
Hurt You Never	7/2	10/3	10/3
Alpine Girl	13/2	13/2	6/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Rodborough

17.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 2 Odds: 10

7/4

2nd

Mersea

14.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 9.4

7/4

3rd

Hurt You Never

9.5

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Alpine Girl

8.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4

13/2

Wakai Umi

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rodborough	71	83	72
Mersea	69	85	65
Hurt You Never	67	84	77
Alpine Girl	67	83	67
Wakai Umi	62	80	56

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Wakai Umi	7d ago	Quick return
Mersea	8d ago	Quick return
Alpine Girl	8d ago	Quick return
Rodborough	11d ago	Quick return
Hurt You Never	27d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 4f214y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.